If you want your favorite team to replace its head of baseball operations, you\u2019re almost certainly going to have to wait.<\/p>\n
Clubs rarely fire top executives this close to the amateur draft, which takes place July 11 to 13, and trade deadline, which is Aug. 3.<\/p>\n
Why would a team, if it is even considering a change, entrust a suspect leader with potentially franchise-altering decisions?<\/p>\n
At least part of the reason is to avoid disruption.<\/p>\n
Processes already are in place for both the draft and deadline. A new head of baseball operations would grab the wheel of a vehicle in motion, without necessarily knowing how the controls worked.<\/p>\n
What is striking about the current landscape is just how many top executives are facing intense scrutiny \u2014 I\u2019m listing eight, and could have added more. Another unique aspect is the potential impact of an owners\u2019 lockout on how teams might operate.<\/p>\n
A transaction freeze would take effect once the lockout began on Dec. 1, but only on player moves. Teams still could hire and fire all other employees, including those heading their front offices.<\/p>\n
So, if a club dismissed its top exec at the end of the season, it could extend its search for a successor beyond the start of the lockout. It also could avoid naming that successor \u2014 and paying that person\u2019s salary \u2014 until a new collective-bargaining agreement is reached.<\/p>\n
The deadline could provide a lifeline for some of the execs on this list, provided the moves they make are transformative. For other execs, the problems run deeper, and no trade will make that dramatic a difference.<\/p>\n
Why it’s too early to talk about the MLB trade deadline<\/p>\n
Ken Rosenthal<\/p>\n
In some cases, fans clamoring for change should be careful what they wish for. The Washington Nationals seem to have landed a winner with their hiring of Paul Toboni as president of baseball operations<\/a>. But Toboni, new to the role, was a risk. It\u2019s not as if the industry is teeming with sure things.<\/p>\n One thing is certain: As the draft and deadline approach, the pressure on certain executives is only intensifying.<\/p>\n David Stearns, New York Mets<\/p>\n People in positions of power with New York teams frequently talk about the \u201cnoise\u201d that comes with the market. Stearns certainly is hearing the noise now that his dramatic overhaul of the team\u2019s roster and coaching staff has gone splat.<\/p>\n The Mets\u2019 $369 million payroll is the game\u2019s second highest<\/a>. Owner Steve Cohen said in spring training that making the playoffs was the bare minimum<\/a>, adding, \u201cmissing two years in a row, that\u2019s not good.\u201d The Mets are in \u201cnot good\u201d territory, and then some.<\/p>\n Still, it would be an upset if owner Steve Cohen made a change before next season. Stearns\u2019 $10 million salaries through 2028 wouldn\u2019t necessarily stop someone as wealthy as Cohen. But remember, Cohen spent two years pursuing Stearns before finally hiring him in September 2023. Before that, he ran through four lead executives in three years.<\/p>\n There is value in continuity, but only for so long. Cohen hired Stearns to be the Mets\u2019 version of Andrew Friedman. Stearns\u2019 first season was promising, ending with the Mets losing to Friedman\u2019s Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. But since then, a number of Stearns\u2019 moves have backfired.<\/p>\n Friedman didn\u2019t find his groove immediately with the Dodgers, missing early in his tenure on mid-tier free agents such as Scott Kazmir and Brandon McCarthy. But he inherited a loaded roster and succeeded with trades for complementary players such as Kik\u00e9 Hern\u00e1ndez, Chris Taylor and Alex Wood before nailing most of his big-money acquisitions in recent years.<\/p>\n Stearns needs to evolve as effectively, and soon.<\/p>\n Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants<\/p>\n The Giants are discovering that leadership as a player does not necessarily translate to leadership as an executive.<\/p>\n It doesn\u2019t mean they will fire Posey, who might be elected to the Hall of Fame next year on the first ballot. But perhaps at some point Posey will have the presence of mind to step aside, the way Bruce Bochy did when he knew Farhan Zaidi wanted his own manager. Posey cryptically acknowledged to reporters Tuesday that when a team falters, \u201cthere\u2019s conversations that have to be had.\u201d<\/p>\n Posey\u2019s embarrassing refusal to answer questions<\/a> about the team\u2019s Pride Night controversy arguably was more of an organizational failure; the Giants should have better prepared him, or had team president Larry Baer address the matter. But on the baseball side, the Giants\u2019 33-46 record, the fourth-worst in the majors, is a ringing indictment of Posey\u2019s roster construction.<\/p>\n The Giants obviously would love to move on from their enormous commitments<\/a> to third baseman Rafael Devers and shortstop Willy Adames. But it might be easier and cleaner for Posey\u2019s successor to undo those missteps, as well as his hiring of Tony Vitello as manager<\/a>.<\/p>\n With limited payroll flexibility last offseason, Posey and general manager Zack Minasian hit on second baseman Luis Arraez as a stopgap free agent, but missed on outfielder Harrison Bader and pitchers Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle. Creativity has not been this front office\u2019s strong suit. And fixing this mess will take yeoman\u2019s work.<\/p>\n Craig Breslow, Red Sox<\/p>\n The first sentence of the column I wrote<\/a> after the firing of Alex Cora was, \u201cCraig Breslow is next.\u201d Nothing that has transpired since has changed my opinion.<\/p>\n The Sox were 10-17 under Cora. They\u2019re 22-29 under interim manager Chad Tracy, sitting on the worst record in the AL. CEO Sam Kennedy recently said during his weekly radio appearance on WEEI that the removal of Breslow was \u201cnot on the table<\/a>.\u201d But he also called the team\u2019s season \u201cembarrassing.\u201d<\/p>\n It\u2019s obvious where this is heading, particularly with an ownership that is forever in search of someone to blame.<\/p>\n Breslow is in third season. His predecessors \u2014 Ben Cherington, Dave Dombrowski and Chaim Bloom \u2014 all were fired in their fourth. When assessing Breslow\u2019s body of work, it\u2019s doubtful ownership would determine he warrants one more shot.<\/p>\n The deadline is five and a half weeks away. Breslow is not yet ready to give up<\/a> on the season. And even when he does, Sonny Gray, Aroldis Chapman and Co. will bring only so much.<\/p>\n Breslow is next, all right. The only question is when.<\/p>\n Dana Brown, Houston Astros<\/p>\n Brown checks all the boxes for an executive in trouble: This is his fourth season, he\u2019s in the final year of his contract and his team last season missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016.<\/p>\n Owner Jim Crane fired GM James Click after winning the 2022 World Series, so it stands to reason that a second straight failure to reach the postseason would make him itchy, if he isn\u2019t already.<\/p>\n Earlier this week, The Athletic\u2019s Chandler Rome detailed how the Astros\u2019 outfield<\/a> was on pace to be one of the least productive in franchise history. This, after Brown said in March he was \u201cnot done yet\u201d in his search for outfield help after making a trade that to this point has not worked in the Astros\u2019 favor \u2014 Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez to the Toronto Blue Jays for Joey Loperfido.<\/p>\n Brown\u2019s efforts on the pitching side are even more troubling. His only successful acquisition, Peter Lambert, came on a minor-league deal. His six additions on major-league contracts \u2014 Mike Burrows, Tatsuya Imai, Ryan Weiss, Kai-Wei Teng, Nate Pearson and Roddery Mu\u00f1oz \u2014 have combined for a 5.56 ERA. Weiss and Mu\u00f1oz already have been designated for assignment and are off the 40-man roster.<\/p>\n Houston, 19-12 since its 20-31 start, is getting healthier. Second baseman Jose Altuve, right-hander Hunter Brown and closer Josh Hader are back, and righty Cristian Javier soon might join them. A second-half surge likely will be necessary for Brown to retain his job. The Astros are right in the middle of the AL wild-card muck, but still four games under .500.<\/p>\n Mike Elias, Baltimore Orioles<\/p>\n Last November, in confirming Elias\u2019 promotion to president of baseball operations, owner David Rubenstein said<\/a>, \u201cHe\u2019s done a spectacular job, and we have great confidence in him for many, many years to come.\u201d<\/p>\n Doesn\u2019t sound like an owner who, eight months later, might be pondering a change. But when a team is losing, happy talk from ownership will be tolerated for only so long.<\/p>\n After making consecutive playoff appearances in 2023 and \u201824 \u2014 albeit without winning a game \u2014 the Orioles last season fired manager Brandon Hyde<\/a> and finished 75-87. This season, they\u2019re 38-44 under Craig Albernaz, inconsistent and sloppy.<\/p>\n Elias recognized the need for better fundamentals<\/a> by hiring former major-league manager Mike Shildt to a newly created position in the minor leagues and seeking the expertise of Hall of Famer part-owner Cal Ripken Jr.<\/p>\n A second straight losing season, however, would further test the patience of fans who endured years of tanking, grew excited when Elias initially delivered upon his promised \u201cliftoff,\u201d<\/a>\u00a0and are now frustrated that the team has failed to sustain success.<\/p>\n A big deadline could improve the team\u2019s fortunes, and perhaps the perceptions of Elias. For all the work Elias did last offseason \u2014 adding first baseman Pete Alonso, left fielder Taylor Ward, right-hander Shane Baz and closer Ryan Helsley, among others \u2014 the team remains in need of a top-of-the-rotation starter and bullpen help.<\/p>\n Elias already waited too long to trade some of his prospects. Bolder action might be required, before it\u2019s too late.<\/p>\n Perry Minasian, Los Angeles Angels<\/p>\n Rarely does a head of baseball operations survive five straight losing seasons. Minasian is working on his sixth while in the last guaranteed year of his contract, and the team is heading for its 11th straight overall.<\/p>\n It\u2019s impossible to know how much interference from owner Arte Moreno affects Minasian\u2019s ability to maneuver \u2014 Moreno blocked trades of Shohei Ohtani<\/a> and others, and the most he has allowed Minasian to spend on a free agent was $63 million for left-hander Yusei Kikuchi.<\/p>\n Still, it\u2019s not exactly as if Minasian distinguished himself on the margins. The Angels have a quality shortstop, Zack Neto, and the makings of a quality rotation with Jose Soriano, Reid Detmers and Walbert Ure\u00f1a. But The Athletic\u2019s Keith Law ranked their farm system the second-worst in baseball<\/a>. And Minasian, perhaps out of desperation, rushes the few prospects he has.<\/p>\n Rather than focus on development, the Angels often utilize young players based on immediate needs. Pitchers such as Sam Aldegheri, Ryan Johnson and Caden Dana bounce between starting and relief roles once they reach the majors, failing to develop properly. And the spinning of wheels continues.<\/p>\n I\u2019m calling it now: Moreno will dump Minasian and manager Kurt Suzuki at the end of the season, then save money by waiting until the end of the lockout to name replacements.<\/p>\n Ben Cherington, Pittsburgh Pirates<\/p>\n The Pirates are 8-12 in June after going 16-12 in May, but some of their underlying numbers might surprise you. Their offense entered Wednesday ranked fifth in runs per game. Their rotation ranked ninth in ERA. Their run differential is +23.<\/p>\n The team\u2019s performance has largely validated Cherington\u2019s active offseason, which included the additions of first baseman\/outfielder Ryan O\u2019Hearn and second baseman Brandon Lowe. Cherington remains busy trying to upgrade his roster, and his bullpen in particular, by signaling a willingness to discuss trades of prospects and\/or the 34th pick in the draft<\/a>.<\/p>\n At the end of last season, team president Travis Williams explained the team\u2019s decision<\/a> to retain Cherington by saying, \u201cWe\u2019re looking in 2026 to make the playoffs. Period. Full stop. We did not want to veer from that.\u201d<\/p>\n The Pirates might not get all the way there. But as long as they remain competitive \u2014 a realistic expectation once shortstop Konnor Griffin and center fielder Oneil Cruz return from injuries \u2014 Cherington would appear reasonably safe. The question then would become: Will the Pirates extend him?<\/p>\n Cherington is under contract through 2027<\/a>, a season that could be shortened or canceled by the lockout and\/or include a salary floor that dramatically changes how the Pirates and other low-revenue clubs do business. If the team didn\u2019t want to \u201cveer\u201d from Cherington last offseason, it probably would make little sense to veer from him after this one.<\/p>\n The Pirates would not figure to be aggressive in free agency prior to the start of the lockout. But based on the team\u2019s improvement, players now might view Pittsburgh as more of an attractive destination than they did in the past.<\/p>\n Cherington helped make that happen.<\/p>\n A.J. Preller, San Diego Padres<\/p>\n Wait, what? Only four months ago, the Padres signed Preller to a multi-year extension<\/a>.<\/p>\n The potential for change exists not because the Padres are merely on the fringes of the NL wild-card race, but because new ownership is taking over.<\/p>\n The team\u2019s late owner, Peter Seidler, was Preller\u2019s biggest sponsor, backing his heavy spending and aggressive trading. Seidler\u2019s brother, chairman John Seidler, negotiated Preller\u2019s extension<\/a>. But it\u2019s possible that if approved, new owners Jos\u00e9 E. Feliciano and his wife, Kwanza Jones, could over time develop other ideas.<\/p>\n