{"id":758535,"date":"2026-07-22T14:33:15","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T14:33:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/758535\/"},"modified":"2026-07-22T14:33:15","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T14:33:15","slug":"marlins-vs-astros-mlb-picks-alcantara-wont-change-miamis-fortunes-wednesday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/758535\/","title":{"rendered":"Marlins vs. Astros MLB picks: Alcantara won’t change Miami’s fortunes Wednesday"},"content":{"rendered":"

A former Cy Young Award winner who is reportedly on the trade block could be making his final audition start tonight, and I’m not talking about Detroit’s Tarik Skubal<\/a> \u2013 who might be staying put after all (and isn’t pitching tonight). Nope, I mean Miami’s Sandy Alcantara<\/a> as he takes the hill for the sliding Marlins<\/a> in an 8:10 ET first pitch in Houston. It’s a weird Wednesday slate with that being the latest start, nary a West Coast night game. <\/p>\n

Marlins-Astros MLB same-game parlayHouston +1.5Under 1.5 first-inning runsAlt Under 10.5<\/p>\n

DraftKings<\/a> SGP price: +137\u00a0<\/p>\n

On July 10, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and other national MLB<\/a> scribes were reporting that the Marlins would keep Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young winner. But back then, Miami was on a six-game winning streak, a season-high 10 games over .500 and right in the mix for the NL East title and a wild card spot. The team hasn’t won since, entering tonight on an MLB-high eight-game losing streak and perhaps changing the front office’s motivations. <\/p>\n

A division title was always a longshot, and that can be forgotten now. Miami is tied for the last NL wild card spot, but the SportsLine Projection Model gives it only a 18.9% shot at the playoffs and DraftKings prices the Marlins at +370, which equates to 21.3%.<\/p>\n

Alcantara (10-5, 3.89 ERA) perhaps isn’t a Cy Young type these days, and he has never before or since been as good as he was in 2022, but the 30-year-old is a workhorse innings eater (leads the majors with 162.2 innings pitched). Alcantara is the definition of a No. 2 or 3 starting pitcher on a championship-caliber club. Like, say, the Yankees<\/a> or Dodgers<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Why would the Marlins deal him \u2013 there is a Kalshi market open on his next team — if they still have a very legitimate playoff chance? Because Alcantara is owed $21 million next season if they pick up the club option, then he’s set for free agency in 2027. The penny-pinching Marlins aren’t paying him $21 million — if there even is a 2027 season \u2013 and Alcantara has largely established his value following Tommy John surgery that cost him all of 2024.<\/p>\n

Following a seven-start streak where Alcantara got a W in each, he is winless in the past two, but both were quality starts. He just got very little run support. When he gets 0-2 runs of support per game (total team runs), Alcantara is 1-4 with a 5.15 ERA this year in six starts.\u00a0 When the Marlins score 3-5 runs in an outing, he is 1-1 with a 3.51 ERA in five starts. And when they score more than six, the Dominican is 8-0 with a 3.38 ERA in 10 starts.<\/p>\n

Alcantara has not faced Houston this year but was hammered at home by the Astros<\/a> in August 2025, allowing six runs and nine hits over seven in a loss. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him for 6.9 innings, 5.4 strikeouts, 5.6 hits allowed and 2.8 earned runs tonight. He usually goes deep into games and has an Over\/Under outs total of 18.5.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Houston will be a buyer ahead of the deadline and has been linked to a couple of former Cy Young winners in Skubal and the Giants<\/a>‘ Robbie Ray<\/a> but not so much Alcantara. The Astros would not even be within striking distance in the AL West and wild card race without a breakout season from Peter Lambert<\/a> (8-5, 3.03 ERA). <\/p>\n

The 29-year-old had been brutal the first four seasons of his career with Colorado and didn’t pitch in the majors last year, instead going over to Japan. He wasn’t even that good there and only got a minor-league deal with Houston, starting the year at Triple-A. Bettors who have wagered $100 on Houston to win each of his 16 starts would be up $332. <\/p>\n

Apparently, the Astros tinkered with his mechanics. In 2024, Lambert threw from a conventional 54-degree arm slot, but this year that arm angle is 49 degrees. That has increased the break on his four-seam fastball. His strikeout percentage on that pitch has increased from 13.2% two years ago to now 23.9%.<\/p>\n

I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop on this guy, just hopefully not tonight. Lambert is 2-0 with a 1.02 ERA in three starts this month and the model forecasts him for 5.3 innings, 5.1 strikeouts, 5.2 hits allowed and 2.2 earned runs. He is 1-0 with a 6.35 ERA in 17.0 career innings vs. the Marlins, but no current Miami batters have faced Lambert.<\/p>\n

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DraftKings is offering me Houston +1.5, not as an alt, so I will take it even though if I played Astros money line the parlay price would be much better. Always nice to have that insurance. And if the Under first-inning 1.5 cashes, that obviously increases the chances that the alt Under 10.5 full-game total does. Miami isn’t hitting.\u00a0Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A former Cy Young Award winner who is reportedly on the trade block could be making his final…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":758536,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2395],"tags":[93976,5,684,100,54,57,1816,778,58,4171,4,163,722,7234,164,29804,18053,62,10195,1822,66,3480,382],"class_list":["post-758535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-miami-marlins","tag-alancatra-trade-rumors-marlins","tag-baseball","tag-betting","tag-christian-walker","tag-houston-astros","tag-los-angeles-dodgers","tag-marlins","tag-miami","tag-miami-marlins","tag-miamimarlins","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-best-bets","tag-mlb-betting","tag-mlb-odds","tag-mlb-picks","tag-mlb-predictions","tag-mlb-prop-bets","tag-new-york-yankees","tag-peter-lambert","tag-robbie-ray","tag-san-francisco-giants","tag-sandy-alcantara","tag-tarik-skubal"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116964124500915835","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/758535","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=758535"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/758535\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/758536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=758535"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=758535"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=758535"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}