![\"JJ](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1785568339_51_0x0.jpg\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
JJ Bleday can match his career high for home runs in a season by blasting a homer tonight.<\/p>\n
Getty Images<\/p>\n
The MLB best home run bets slipped to an 18-65 record, with three no-bets after two misses on home run props for Chase DeLauter and Julio Rodriguez on Wednesday. Fortunately, home run bets are long-shot wagers, so bettors don\u2019t need to get many correct to generate a profit.<\/p>\n
As a result, even the unimpressive record for the MLB best home run bets has resulted in $661 in profit for anyone who has bet $100 on each of the touted home run bets at the listed odds. The MLB best home run bets are a rollercoaster ride, and they\u2019ve been headed downward lately. Gamblers must understand the downswings are part of the equation.<\/p>\n
Tonight is a great opportunity for the rollercoaster to climb. Two left-handed-hitting outfielders in favorable matchups in their homer-friendly home ballparks have the most appealing home run props on Saturday\u2019s MLB slate.<\/p>\n
MLB Best Home Run BetsJJ Bleday (Cincinnati Reds – OF)<\/p>\n
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+382) at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/p>\n
JJ Bleday<\/a> blasted his 19th home run of the 2026 campaign across 341 plate appearances last night, already his second-highest total for home runs in a season. The left-handed-hitting outfielder<\/a> has hit 14 homers against righties, 13 at home and eight at home against right-handed pitching. <\/p>\n The 28-year-old hitter\u2019s batted-ball data is mostly good, with some outstanding marks sprinkled in. Among 252 qualified hitters in 2026, Bleday is tied for 81st in barrels per plate appearance rate (6.8%), 81st in barrels per batted-ball event rate (10.6%), tied for 116th in hard-hit rate (41.9%), tied for 125th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (93.0 mph), tied for 64th in maximum exit velocity (112.6 mph), fifth in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (42.6%) and 13th in steepest launch angle (21.2 degrees). <\/p>\n Bleday has a favorable matchup tonight. Braxton Ashcraft<\/a> has allowed 16 home runs at 1.18 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR\/9) in 21 starts, allowing at least one in 11 starts this year. After keeping hitters in the yard through his first four starts, he\u2019s permitted all 16 home runs in 17 subsequent starts. Furthermore, Ashcraft has allowed home runs in four of his last five starts, ceding two, two and three homers in three of those starts.<\/p>\n He also has some eye-catching splits. Ashcraft<\/a> has allowed 10 home runs on the road, 13 to left-handed batters and seven on the road to lefties. <\/p>\n Bleday\u2019s hitting conditions are also desirable tonight. Great American Ball Park\u2019s 112 park factor for home runs<\/a> since 2025 ranks tied for ninth. Bleday should muscle up and match his career-high 20 home runs in a season with a homer tonight. <\/p>\n Yordan Alvarez is MLB’s leader for home runs in 2026 and can launch another homer tonight.<\/p>\n Getty ImagesYordan Alvarez (Houston Astros – OF)<\/p>\n Over 0.5 Home Runs (+255) at FanDuel Sportsbook<\/p>\n Yordan Alvarez<\/a> is MLB\u2019s home run leader with 35 homers this season. Alvarez<\/a> has launched 26 home runs against righties, 19 at home and 15 at home against right-handed pitching. <\/p>\n Predictably, MLB\u2019s home run leader has incredible batted-ball data. Among 252 qualified batters this year, Alvarez is first in barrels per plate appearance rate (12.3%), fourth in barrels per batted-ball event rate (18.5%), tied for 10th in hard-hit rate (53.7%), tied for 17th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.0 mph), second in maximum exit velocity (118.5 mph), seventh in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (41.9%) and tied for the 30th-steepest launch angle (19.7 degrees).<\/p>\n Jacob deGrom isn\u2019t what he once was, but he\u2019s still a quality pitcher. That said, deGrom<\/a> has permitted 16 home runs at 1.31 HR\/9 in 20 starts in 2026. The 38-year-old righty<\/a> has allowed 11 home runs to lefties, 11 on the road and seven on the road against left-handed batters.<\/p>\n Finally, Alvarez\u2019s park factors tonight are ideal. Daikin Park\u2019s 115 park factor for homers since 2025 ranks tied for the fifth-highest mark. Alvarez has an excellent chance to hit a home run tonight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"JJ Bleday can match his career high for home runs in a season by blasting a homer tonight.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":766950,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[5,50,51375,27385,3385,5559,54,1952,4,722,2264],"class_list":["post-766949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-baseball","tag-cincinnati-reds","tag-home-run-bets","tag-home-run-props","tag-home-runs","tag-homers","tag-houston-astros","tag-jj-bleday","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-betting","tag-yordan-alvarez"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/117019013616943992","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/766949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=766949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/766949\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/766950"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=766949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=766949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=766949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}