In the wide-open American League, the final wild card spot is up for grabs. Both the Orioles (56-60) and Rangers (58-58) find themselves just _ games out of a postseason berth. For Texas, a run at the AL West is still within reach as well. Even though these two clubs haven\u2019t impressed this season, there\u2019s two months of baseball left to play. Earning a series win this weekend could kick-start a second half push.With that being said, which side has the advantage tonight in Arlington?<\/p>\n
The Rangers are favorites (-146)<\/a> over the Orioles; the over\/under is set at 7.5 runs<\/a>. Below, I\u2019ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday\u2019s showdown between Baltimore and Texas on DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a>.<\/p>\n Orioles vs. Rangers pick, best bet today<\/p>\n Orioles ML (+136)<\/a>: This line is inflated due to deGrom\u2019s name value. However, the former Cy Young winner has been giving up a ton of hard contact this season. The Orioles, if nothing else, can mash and work a count. Bradish shouldn\u2019t have too much trouble against this Rangers lineup, either. At plus money, Baltimore makes plenty of sense for bettors tonight.<\/p>\n Orioles vs. Rangers prediction, preview<\/p>\n Kyle Bradish will get the nod tonight for Baltimore. While not among the sport\u2019s elite arms, it\u2019s safe to call the 29-year-old underrated at this point in his career. Through 121.0 innings pitched this season (22 starts), he\u2019s notched a 3.79 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 117 strikeouts (8.7 K\/9). On the flip side, the peripherals suggest that Bradish has been somewhat fortunate so far. He ranks inside the 55th percentile or worse in every key advanced metric other than average exit velocity (88.1 MPH) and ground ball rate (48.5%).<\/p>\n On paper, the Rangers don\u2019t present the most formidable challenge at the plate. This group is averaging just 4.13 runs per game this season, fourth-fewest in the majors. Playing half your matchups at Globe Life Field, the second-most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball per Savant<\/a>, doesn\u2019t help. The absence of third baseman Josh Jung (calf) and catcher Kyle Higashioka (elbow) hasn\u2019t helped. Texas also owns a .690 OPS against right-handed pitching at home, fifth-worst in baseball. Slugging shortstop Corey Seager (92 wRC+) has looked off at the plate as well.<\/p>\n As for the Rangers, it\u2019ll be none other than Jacob deGrom toeing the slab this evening. It\u2019s been a good season for most pitchers, but below the superstar\u2019s lofty standards. Over 113.2 innings pitched (21 starts), he\u2019s posted a 3.96 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 135 strikeouts (10.7 K\/9). The two-time Cy Young winner has been in a bit of a rut; he owns a 5.40 ERA over his last five outings. The 38-year-old\u2019s biggest issue has been giving up quality contact. deGrom ranks below the 33rd percentile among qualified starters in average exit velocity (90.6 MPH), barrel rate (8.6%) and hard-hit rate (45.1%).<\/p>\n Despite their lackluster record, the Orioles aren\u2019t complete pushovers at the plate. Leading this offense is new acquisition Pete Alonso. The former Mets standout has had a solid debut season with his new club, slashing .247\/.341\/454 with 23 home runs. As a unit, the O\u2019s are 14th in runs scored (517). Where this group excels is plate discipline, working an American League-best 3.88 walks per game. As previously mentioned, deGrom gives up his fair share of line drives. Baltimore\u2019s offense leads all of baseball with a 42.6% hard-hit rate and 90.0 MPH average exit velocity. When deGrom last faced the Orioles on March 31st, he allowed three runs and six hits over 4.2 innings.<\/p>\n