{"id":782856,"date":"2026-08-19T13:21:18","date_gmt":"2026-08-19T13:21:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/782856\/"},"modified":"2026-08-19T13:21:18","modified_gmt":"2026-08-19T13:21:18","slug":"mets-vs-padres-prediction-mlb-picks-best-bets-wednesday-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/782856\/","title":{"rendered":"Mets vs. Padres prediction: MLB picks, best bets Wednesday"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\tGambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards<\/a> for more information.<\/p>\n

No, the Mets<\/a> are not making the playoffs, but they are playing really solid baseball as they enter play on Wednesday.<\/p>\n

The Mets won 10 of 13 games entering Tuesday, including the opener of this series<\/a> against the Padres.<\/p>\n

Andy Green\u2019s red-hot bunch <\/a>has opened Wednesday afternoon\u2019s contest as short home underdogs (46 percent, Polymarket<\/a>) despite tossing out 36-year-old right-hander Robert Stock (0-2, 6.57 ERA).\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Padres counter with Michael King (8-8, 3.42 ERA) in what would profile as a clear advantage for San Diego.\u00a0<\/p>\n

San Diego has had an abnormally bad season on the offensive side, ranking 21st in runs scored per game (4.25), just one spot better than the Mets, who land at 4.17.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Both teams are blistering with the bats of late.\u00a0The Padres have scored 63 runs in their last 13 games (4.9 RPG), good for the eighth-best figure in all of baseball.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Mets have 68 runs in the same time span (5.2 RPG), fourth most in all of baseball.<\/p>\n

So two underachieving offenses from a season-long perspective have turned it around of late.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Considering no one is expecting much \u2013 if anything \u2013 from Stock, who just got bombed by the Pirates for eight earned runs on Aug. 8 and didn\u2019t look much better versus the Nationals six days later.<\/p>\n

Stock probably shouldn\u2019t be in the major leagues, but the Mets are testing their minor leaguers in an attempt to see some real improvements.\u00a0<\/p>\n

You can get over 0.5 runs in the first inning at-plus money on Kalshi (48 percent) and I think that\u2019s a solid wager considering King hasn\u2019t exactly been lights out against the Mets\u2019 lineup.<\/p>\n

\"FernandoFernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres. Getty Images<\/p>\n

Bo Bichette is 7-for-24 against King (.763 OPS), while Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert Jr., Jared Young, and Luis Torrens all boast a 1.000 OPS or better.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Target the \u201cYes runs first inning\u201d market and the over for the full game, a number I project to open at 8.5 when books release it.\u00a0<\/p>\n

THE PLAY: Yes runs first inning (48 percent, Kalshi<\/a>) | Over total 8.5 runs when released<\/p>\n

Why Trust New York Post Betting<\/p>\n

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he\u2019s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":782853,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2407],"tags":[5,684,4,722,61,43,137,18,4339,4338,185,1272,723],"class_list":["post-782856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-san-diego-padres","tag-baseball","tag-betting","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-betting","tag-new-york-mets","tag-padres","tag-san-diego","tag-san-diego-padres","tag-sandiego","tag-sandiegopadres","tag-sports","tag-sports-betting","tag-sports-picks"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/117122386335886012","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/782856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=782856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/782856\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/782853"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=782856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=782856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=782856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}