Prospects I Am Lower On<\/p>\n
Mike Sirota<\/p>\n
![\"Mike](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/current.png\")
<\/p>\n
\n CF, Age: 23,
\n B\/T: R\/R,
\n 6′ 2″\/188 lbs\n <\/p>\n
\n DOB: 2003-06-16,
\n Mineola, USA <\/p>\n
\n Drafted: 2024, Rd. 3, Pick: 13 <\/p>\n
\n School: Northeastern <\/p>\n
![\"Tulsa](\"https:\/\/www.mlbstatic.com\/team-logos\/119.svg\")
<\/p>\n
\n 2026 Season Stats
Levels: A+, AA <\/p>\n
GP
\n PA
\n tjBat+
\n OPS
\n ISO
\n HR
\n SB
\n K%
\n BB%
\n Whiff%
\n Swing%
\n Air%<\/p>\n
98
\n 455
\n 159
\n 1.019
\n 0.236
\n 17
\n 13
\n 22.0%
\n 20.0%
\n 25.7%
\n 37.5%
\n 61.3%<\/p>\n
When researching this year\u2019s MLB Draft I found a college prospect who had plenty of tools but was a bit behind in the contact department. For what he lacked in bat-to-ball skills, he made up for it with plus swing decisions. When using the argument that his lack of contact skills is helped by his supreme patience, a draft evaluator for an MLB club asked \u201cif he picks up the ball so well, why can\u2019t he hit it?\u201d. That question has lingered in my mind when thinking about Dodgers prospect Mike Sirota.<\/p>\n
Sirota has a 12% chase rate in both High-A and Double-A in 2026 while posting a Z-Swing% that does not completely paralyze him at the plate. He gets heralded for his outlier swing decisions, but he is running a 78% Z-Contact rate and currently has a 44% whiff rate against offspeed pitches. It\u2019s a very consistent power output with a 107.4 mph 90th%EV and 57% HardHit rate. And with a lack of constant flyballs, especially to his pull side, it\u2019s a lot of production to the gap. This trait will likely not improve without Sirota changing what makes him good \u2014 his swing path is geared to do damage and not make contact. It\u2019s a bit of a Munetaka Murakami<\/a> situation \u2014 both make double-plus swing decisions but struggle with contact due to their bias towards damage. Obviously Murakami has much worse contact rates and is an anomaly with his success, while Sirota uses much more of an overall damage approach than one geared purely towards the long ball. But the argument against Sirota does sound a bit like the argument against Murakami.<\/p>\n Sirota is a flawed prospect, and the success is not surefire even with his tremendous results. The strikeout rate will tick up against major league pitching. Can an uber-patient, right-handed, extra-base gap-hitting outfielder who lacks defensive ability and versatility, with bat-to-ball questions, be a Dodgers lineup mainstay and, most importantly, live up to top prospect expectations?<\/p>\n Eduardo Tait<\/p>\n \n C, Age: 19, \n DOB: 2006-08-27, \n 2026 Season Stats GP 105 Tait is a known commodity in the prospect world. He had plenty of helium as one of the Philadelphia Phillies\u2019 top future assets until he was sent to Minnesota for star closer Jhoan Duran<\/a>. Tait\u2019s surface-level results throughout his career in affiliate ball have been sort of lackluster for a top prospect, and his 74 wRC+ so far in High-A Cedar Rapids is not adding a ton of hype to the Panamanian product. The idea of Tait is a power-hitting catcher who is still not a finished product and has shown some feel for making contact, but while the idea of Tait bodes well, the actual product has not looked like a top prospect.<\/p>\n Tait\u2019s .304 wOBA is overperforming his .291 xwOBA, and the heralded power has been more average. For a player turning 20 in just a couple of days, a 105.1 mph 90th% EV is a strong number, but for power to be Tait\u2019s carrying tool, you\u2019d want more than MLB-average exit velocities and a 38% HardHit rate. Tait does avoid groundballs, and he does have a tendency to pull the ball, but he also has a 17% pop-up rate. The overall power is not terrible, but visually you don\u2019t expect a ton more power to arrive, and it leaves him at more of an MLB-average level.<\/p>\n Tait is currently running contact rates that fall around High-A average, and unlike most young hitters who search for damage, he is not super prone to whiffing against a secondary pitch. He has struggled to do much damage against breaking balls specifically, while whiffing the most versus velocity. One of the notable problems here is the chase \u2014 Tait is currently running a 41% chase rate, and his lack of real contact skills puts him in a poor K-BB position. Pair this with his below-average defense behind the plate and a likely move off of catcher, and even if you get lenient with 55 power, nothing here has the makeup of a top-100 prospect.<\/p>\n Felnin Celesten<\/p>\n \n SS, Age: 20, \n DOB: 2005-09-15, \n 2026 Season Stats GP 107 Celesten has long been one of the better-known prospects in a stacked Mariners system, and 2026 has seen somewhat of a breakout from the nearly 21-year-old. He dominated High-A Everett with a near .950 OPS before a promotion to Double-A Arkansas essentially stopped the switch-hitter in his tracks, regressing him to a .587 OPS so far. Celesten was always punching above his weight in High-A \u2014 his .403 wOBA was drastically outperforming his more normal .330 xwOBA, and the 33% HardHit rate lagged behind what you would desire by a wide margin.<\/p>\n Though Celesten ends up with nearly identical outcomes from both sides of the plate, he is more likely to do damage from the right side, with his contact rates dropping a couple percent while his exit velocities take a big step forward, and the inverse from the left side. Celesten makes great swing decisions and is running a near 50% Z-O Swing so far in 2026, but the contact rates have not fully stood out, and he hasn\u2019t adapted to Double-A pitching at all, with his whiff% climbing to 37% and Z-Contact% dropping to 73%. Celesten\u2019s xwOBA and Z-Contact at High-A placed him in buckets that, from 2015\u20132022, only saw ~30% of players in those statistical buckets make the majors.<\/p>\n One positive is that Celesten recorded a new career-high exit velocity on August 12, scorching a ball 113.4 mph. Regardless, Celesten has struggled to consistently hold his EVs amidst a good launch profile. It\u2019s average defense at shortstop that does not bolster the ceiling much, though Celesten can run.Nothing about Celesten sticks out at the moment \u2014 he lacks a big-time floor or ceiling-raising tool and is a consensus top-100 prospect among outlets, although he drastically overperformed to start 2026. There is a path where he gets into his power a little more and adjusts to higher-level pitching, and I look really silly and get rightfully clowned by Mariners fans, but time will tell.<\/p>\n Prospects I Am Higher On<\/p>\n Chase Harlan<\/p>\n \n 3B, Age: 20, \n DOB: 2006-07-09, \n Drafted: 2024, Rd. 3, Pick: 24 <\/p>\n \n School: Central Bucks East HS <\/p>\n \n 2026 Season Stats GP 86 Harlan is a bat-first prospect who possesses some of the best raw power in a stacked Dodgers hitting pipeline, with a 70-grade 109.1 mph 90th-percentile exit velocity and a peak exit velocity of nearly 116 mph. After turning 20 years old just last month, Harlan is posting exit velocity data that goes toe-to-toe with Los Angeles\u2019 main man, Shohei Ohtani<\/a>.<\/p>\n Obviously Harlan does have his faults \u2014 he is still working on getting more consistently optimal launch angles \u2014 but he has a swing that results in a ton of pulled contact and a reasonable amount of pulled flyballs, which suggests that if he can trim his 48% groundball rate into more reasonable territory, the game-power output will be exciting to see. That uncanny raw power for his age is paired with good swing decisions and an above-average Z-Contact rate. He has had his problems at points with getting on secondary stuff, specifically breaking balls, but when Harlan sees a fastball, he never lets it slip.<\/p>\n Like Sirota, the defense isn\u2019t very good, but Harlan may have the time to find a corner spot to get his bat in the lineup consistently. It\u2019s a well-rounded offensive profile with a plus-plus tool at 20 years old, the type of player that would almost always be a top-100 prospect.<\/p>\n Charles Davalan<\/p>\n \n OF, Age: 22, \n DOB: 2003-12-16, \n Drafted: 2025, Rd. CB-A, Pick: 6 <\/p>\n \n School: Arkansas <\/p>\n \n 2026 Season Stats GP 104 This is not a Dodgers or Midwest League-focused article, nor am I getting paid by the Dodgers for my opinions, but Charles Davalan has looked like one of the best picks from the 2025 draft so far. He looks the part of a top-100 prospect, and I would be incredibly willing to put him notably higher than that. The allure of Davalan is his feel to hit \u2014 he is currently running a 90% Z-Contact rate in High-A while walking more than he strikes out, with a freakishly low 10.6% strikeout rate. Davalan is blending these bat-to-ball skills with a 41.6% Z-O Swing%, showing good swing decisions without allowing himself to get beat by nearly anything, especially against fastballs with a 10% whiff rate against heaters.<\/p>\n There are plenty of contact-driven hitters in the lower minors with no pop, but Davalan is not one of them. He has a 111.2 mph maxEV and what would be an MLB-average 90th-percentile exit velocity, and every one of Davalan\u2019s raw power numbers grades out as at least average at the Major League level. That raw power is supplemented by a 19.4% PullAir rate and an approach that sees him leverage his average raw juice into legitimate power production. He holds his exit velocities up in the air and has a legitimate feel for elevating the ball. On top of that, Davalan is currently sitting on 16 stolen bases and features above-average speed.<\/p>\n His lack of a real arm will likely project him to a corner outfield spot, but he does have the athleticism to play center as well. This is a high-floor prospect who has an incredibly fun blend of athleticism, contact skills, and power. Don\u2019t be late to the party when he starts getting consistent top-100 buzz.<\/p>\n Andrew Fischer<\/p>\n \n 3B, Age: 22, \n DOB: 2004-05-25, \n Drafted: 2025, Rd. 1, Pick: 20 <\/p>\n \n School: Tennessee <\/p>\n \n 2026 Season Stats GP 108 Admittedly, this is a funny player to be high on after having concerns about Sirota for his contact problems, but I would call the Sirota qualms more of a discussion that needs to take place rather than me not liking him as a prospect. Fischer is a guy that outlets are not willing to rank in the top 100, while Sirota is top 25 everywhere. In modern-day baseball discussion, there\u2019s still a bit of a gap between the \u201cnerds\u201d and the \u201csurface-level fans,\u201d and Fischer has created something that really pits those two against each other.<\/p>\n For the nerds\u2019 case, Fischer has a ~70% Z-Contact rate and a 34% K%, two numbers that are nearly impossible to succeed with at the Major League level. But also, for the surface-level case, Fischer has 37 homers and straight mashes, hitting a homer every 3 games and every 12.7 plate appearances. And there are \u201cnerd\u201d stats that make a case for Fischer: his xwOBACON lands him directly in James Wood<\/a> and Yordan Alvarez<\/a> territory, and a 73% HardHit rate on flyballs with a 37% flyball rate is not normal, nor is his 34% PullAir%.<\/p>\n This is such a profile of extremes that it\u2019s hard to fence-sit, and I\u2019m in favor of Fischer. There are not many players in the world who have game power like this, and he can hit both lefties and righties. The overall profile is similar in some ways to 2025 Cal Raleigh<\/a>.<\/p>\n Metric xwOBACON 90th% EV PullAir% Launch Angle Spin-Whiff% For more prospect coverage: Top 100 MLB Prospects<\/a>, the Top 100 MLB Prospects: Post-Draft Update<\/a>, and this week\u2019s Prospect Parade: Hottest MLB Prospects (Week of August 17, 2026)<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With the minor league baseball season winding down and only a couple weeks left of affiliated action, most…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":786117,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2276],"tags":[4369,5,2291,4,1586],"class_list":["post-786116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb-draft","tag-analysis","tag-baseball","tag-major-league-baseball-draft","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-draft"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/117143655596529655","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/786116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=786116"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/786116\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/786117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=786116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=786116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=786116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Eduardo](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1787470227_947_current.png\")
<\/p>\n
\n B\/T: L\/R,
\n 6′ 0″\/175 lbs\n <\/p>\n
\n Panama City, Panama <\/p>\n![\"Cedar](\"https:\/\/www.mlbstatic.com\/team-logos\/142.svg\")
<\/p>\n
Levels: A+ <\/p>\n
\n PA
\n tjBat+
\n OPS
\n ISO
\n HR
\n SB
\n K%
\n BB%
\n Whiff%
\n Swing%
\n Air%<\/p>\n
\n 465
\n 76
\n 0.697
\n 0.207
\n 21
\n 0
\n 23.9%
\n 6.9%
\n 27.9%
\n 55.1%
\n 66.0%<\/p>\n![\"Felnin](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1787470228_633_current.png\")
<\/p>\n
\n B\/T: S\/R,
\n 6′ 1″\/175 lbs\n <\/p>\n
\n Guaymate, Dominican Republic <\/p>\n![\"Arkansas](\"https:\/\/www.mlbstatic.com\/team-logos\/136.svg\")
<\/p>\n
Levels: A+, AA <\/p>\n
\n PA
\n tjBat+
\n OPS
\n ISO
\n HR
\n SB
\n K%
\n BB%
\n Whiff%
\n Swing%
\n Air%<\/p>\n
\n 481
\n 120
\n 0.846
\n 0.192
\n 16
\n 25
\n 23.7%
\n 11.0%
\n 28.7%
\n 50.7%
\n 59.3%<\/p>\n![\"Chase](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1787470228_91_current.png\")
<\/p>\n
\n B\/T: R\/R,
\n 6′ 3″\/205 lbs\n <\/p>\n
\n Allentown, USA <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Levels: A, A+ <\/p>\n
\n PA
\n tjBat+
\n OPS
\n ISO
\n HR
\n SB
\n K%
\n BB%
\n Whiff%
\n Swing%
\n Air%<\/p>\n
\n 396
\n 124
\n 0.912
\n 0.211
\n 14
\n 1
\n 20.7%
\n 12.9%
\n 27.0%
\n 39.5%
\n 54.5%<\/p>\n![\"Charles](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1787470229_390_current.png\")
<\/p>\n
\n B\/T: L\/R,
\n 5′ 9″\/190 lbs\n <\/p>\n
\n Waterloo, Canada <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Levels: A+ <\/p>\n
\n PA
\n tjBat+
\n OPS
\n ISO
\n HR
\n SB
\n K%
\n BB%
\n Whiff%
\n Swing%
\n Air%<\/p>\n
\n 479
\n 142
\n 0.903
\n 0.245
\n 21
\n 16
\n 10.6%
\n 12.3%
\n 17.2%
\n 45.7%
\n 61.6%<\/p>\n![\"Andrew](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1787470230_516_current.png\")
<\/p>\n
\n B\/T: L\/R,
\n 6′ 0″\/210 lbs\n <\/p>\n
\n Brick, USA <\/p>\n![\"Biloxi](\"https:\/\/www.mlbstatic.com\/team-logos\/158.svg\")
<\/p>\n
Levels: A+, AA <\/p>\n
\n PA
\n tjBat+
\n OPS
\n ISO
\n HR
\n SB
\n K%
\n BB%
\n Whiff%
\n Swing%
\n Air%<\/p>\n
\n 481
\n 147
\n 1.022
\n 0.359
\n 38
\n 9
\n 34.1%
\n 17.0%
\n 38.0%
\n 42.7%
\n 76.5%<\/p>\n
\n Cal Raleigh (2025)
\n Andrew Fischer (2026)<\/p>\n
\n .505
\n .565<\/p>\n
\n 107.0
\n 107.2<\/p>\n
\n 33%
\n 34%<\/p>\n
\n 25.2\u00b0
\n 27.0\u00b0<\/p>\n
\n 42%
\n 40%<\/p>\n