With some notable exceptions, postseason baseball typically involves tighter games that require a higher degree of execution than some Tuesday night affair against a non-contender. The only problem is that failing to execute in a tight game against a mediocre team doesn\u2019t speak too highly of the Cubs\u2019 ability to get things done when the games matter even more. Not that any of this is novel for those who\u2019ve followed the whole season.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not a matter of the Cubs only playing well against bad teams, because we\u2019ve seen them beat up on bottom-feeders and top dogs alike over 157 games so far. Nor is it as easy as saying that they can only win blowouts, as evidenced by their league-leading 13 walk-off wins this season. The issue I keep coming back to is that the Cubs are generally successful only when they\u2019re able to outplay their own lack of execution.<\/p>\n
Maybe it\u2019s scoring enough runs to mitigate any bullpen issues or getting a good enough starting pitching performance to mask a lack of offense. And when you\u2019re running close to the edge for long enough, you\u2019re going to fall off at some point. Though Craig Counsell<\/a> has managed to keep his team from sliding off the cliff, the compounding effect of all the injuries from the last several months might end up cutting his power steering and brake lines.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s cherry-pick the 10th inning of that series-opening loss to the Marlins as an easy example. After holding Miami scoreless in the top of the frame, the Cubs had Seiya Suzuki<\/a> on second with a chance to end it. Michael Busch<\/a> was intentionally walked by righty Jack Ralston<\/a>, who came into the contest with a grand total of 13.2 MLB innings to his credit. He had walked seven batters in that stretch after struggling badly with his control over part of seven seasons in the minors.<\/p>\n That context is important, especially after Ralston missed badly on two of his three pitches to Busch. Matt Shaw<\/a>, who had entered the game as a pinch-hitter for Michael Conforto<\/a> four innings earlier, was bunting all the way in an attempt to get the winning run to third with less than two outs. Ralston\u2019s first two pitches were nowhere near the zone, but his third caught the corner and was bunted foul.<\/p>\n The next pitch was a splitter that Shaw should have taken for ball three, which would have put him in a very advantageous position. Though having the bases loaded creates more opportunities for the defense, the winning run still would have been at third, and with no outs. Instead, Shaw offered at a pitch that was roughly level with his chin, popping out harmlessly to the pitcher.<\/p>\n Jim Deshaies<\/a> was perplexed in the booth, echoing the thoughts of the fans who wondered what was going through Shaw\u2019s mind in that moment.<\/p>\n \u201cObviously, we work a lot on getting bunts down,\u201d Shaw told reporters in the locker room after the game. \u201cOne of the mindsets is, like, you go up there trying to bunt everything. Because if you get caught in-between with bunting, you can kinda start pulling back and moving the barrel around a little bit. So\u2026saw the pitch up, and it was probably right in that borderline spot where I was kinda debating whether I should pull back or not.<\/p>\n \u201cAnd it kinda just ended up being the perfect pitch for him to get me the tiniest bit indecisive, pulled the barrel back the tiniest bit, and then kinda bunted a little pop-up there.\u201d<\/p>\n Look, I have been the captain of Team Buck Funting for a long time, and you\u2019re never going to hear me lament a player\u2019s inability to lay one down against the kind of stuff they see in today\u2019s game. But this isn\u2019t about the result, it\u2019s about the failure to let that bad pitch go. I suppose that can be chalked up to Shaw\u2019s lack of experience this season, whether it\u2019s the irregular playing time or the recent return from injury.<\/p>\n Still, that unfortunate at-bat was just a microcosm of a team-wide struggle to execute. The Cubs don\u2019t have the most runs in MLB with runners in scoring position (58, six more than the Dodgers) because they\u2019ve performed particularly well in those situations. Their 108 wRC+ with RISP ranks 10th and their .246 average ranks 18th, so it\u2019s really just a volume play. If you put more runners on base, you\u2019re going to score a lot of runs by accident.<\/p>\n Is that reductive and unnecessarily critical? Yes, but this isn\u2019t exactly a new development. Shaw\u2019s inability to advance the runners meant Ian Happ<\/a>\u2018s deep fly to left accomplished nothing. Pedro Ram\u00edrez<\/a> then grounded out to end the inning, putting the pressure squarely back on a bullpen that reminds me of our old sump pump discharge pipe.<\/p>\n I woke up on New Year\u2019s Eve a few years ago and heard what sounded like water and clothes sloshing in the washing machine. As it turns out, an ice dam in the drain pipe running under our backyard had caused the discharge pipe to burst, flooding our basement. That sound was water surging out of the pipe at regular intervals. I bought all kinds of epoxy and other stuff in an attempt to fix it, but that lasted all of five seconds once the pump was turned on again.<\/p>\n So after scoreless appearances by Daniel Palencia<\/a>, Ryan Rolison<\/a>, and Napoleon Dynamite Ryan Zeferjahn<\/a>, I don\u2019t think I was the only one with a strong sense of foreboding. It didn\u2019t help that Caleb Thielbar<\/a> came back out for the 12th after getting two outs to end the 11th. The Marlins went single, sac bunt, single to push two runs across and sent Thielbar to the showers. That meant it was up to Edward Cabrera<\/a> to keep the game close.<\/p>\n He did not.<\/p>\n The blister-prone former starter worked just about as well as my fiberglass patch job, going walk, HBP, walk, single, single before mercifully recording the final two outs with his team now down 8-2. I have been skeptical about Justin Steele<\/a>\u2018s impact, but I\u2019m begging for him to be activated this weekend<\/a> after watching Cabrera. I don\u2019t care how hard you throw your fastball and changeup if one is always down the dick and the other is nowhere near the zone.<\/p>\n In four innings of relief work, Cabrera has allowed five earned runs on five hits and four walks. That is wholly unacceptable for someone expected to pitch in high-leverage situations. It\u2019s unacceptable for low-leverage situations. With full admission that recency bias is coloring my thoughts heavily right now, I just can\u2019t see this team competing for any measure of postseason success given the minuscule margin for error they have created.<\/p>\n Or that has been created for them, as much of this is out of the Cubs\u2019 control. That said, they have not shown me anything to indicate that they\u2019re capable of successfully walking the tightrope of controllables long enough to win more than maybe the Wild Card round. While the aggregate talent to do so undoubtedly exists, the lack of balance could send the Cubs tumbling to an early exit even if they do get superb individual performances.<\/p>\n