On Monday, I tackled the high school bats. I expected to be finished with the high school bats, not because I didn\u2019t get to as many names as I wanted, but because I didn\u2019t expect as many potential 1st round talents to cover. Today was always going to be the high school arms, however, in the opposite direction, there just aren\u2019t that many players to cover. So part two of the draft preview is finishing the high school bats and the couple arms worth chronicling.<\/p>\n
Seth Hernandez, RHP<\/p>\n
Ranks: ESPN (#4), Keith Law (#21), MLB Pipeline (#2), BA (#2) <\/p>\n
BA Scouting: Fastball: 65. Slider: 55. Curveball: 55. Changeup: 70. Control: 55.<\/p>\n
MLB Scouting: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 55 <\/p>\n
For the record, based on what he wrote, Keith Law has Hernandez as the 21st ranked prospect essentially because he\u2019s a high school pitching prospect and no other reason. He doesn\u2019t really say anything different from what the above scouting says, just that the history of high school arms does not have a good success rate. He\u2019s not necessarily wrong, though I don\u2019t honestly think he actually believes he\u2019s the 21st best prospect in this draft. He\u2019s playing the expected WAR game here.<\/p>\n
Hernandez is 6\u20194, 190 pounds and is clearly the best high school pitching prospect in this draft. His fastball is in the low to mid-90s and has touched 98 and given that he\u2019s 18, there may be more velocity in the tank down the line. He pairs that with a fantastic changeup that BA says is a double plus pitch with heavy sink, lots of fade and 12 mph separation from his fastball. It actually doesn\u2019t sound dissimilar to the current profile of Tink Hence, except he\u2019s 6\u20194. If Hence is 6\u20194, I\u2019m guessing he goes higher in the draft than he did.<\/p>\n
Law: \u201cHe\u2019s got at least a 60 changeup and an above-average curveball as well, along with a slider that\u2019s extremely inconsistent right now but that I think will improve significantly once he gets to a team with a good pitching lab \u2014 he can spin the ball and he has plenty of arm speed, so it\u2019s hard to imagine him not getting to a plus slider.\u201d<\/p>\n
MLB: \u201cHernandez has an ideal projectable 6-foot-4 pitcher\u2019s frame with the athleticism teams love to see from young power arms. Always on time with an online and loose delivery, Hernandez has big stuff and a feel for all four of his pitches.\u201d<\/p>\n
BA: \u201cHernandez is a two-way player who has flashed good bat-to-ball skills and power too, but his upside is most exciting on the mound, with the size, stuff and pitchability to develop into a high-end starter.\u201d<\/p>\n
ESPN: \u201c His measurable athleticism, standout position-player performances and elite changeup all point to things that the typical prep righty doesn\u2019t possess.\u201d<\/p>\n
Xavier Neyens, 3B<\/p>\n
Ranks: ESPN (#19), Keith Law (#19), MLB Pipeline (#27), BA (#18) <\/p>\n
BA Scouting: Hit: 50. Power: 65. Run: 45. Field: 50. Arm: 55.<\/p>\n
MLB Pipeline Scouting: Hit: 50 | Power: 65 | Run: 45 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t know if it says more that MLB Pipeline has more generous scouting grades than Baseball America or if arm really matters that little that on the whole, its grades are better than BA but the player is 9 spots lower.<\/p>\n
Neyens is in that sweep spot where the Cardinals aren\u2019t going to reach to get him, but I don\u2019t see much chance he falls to the Cardinals second pick. Which is good, because a high school lefty third baseman with swing and miss stuff who has enormous power…. I don\u2019t know if fans are ready for another Nolan Gorman quite yet. Neyens is another two-way player, which is just another way of saying if he fails as a hitter, a team can always try him at pitcher.<\/p>\n
Law: \u201cHe\u2019s demolished high school pitching this spring, but he struggled with contact last summer despite a low chase rate of 11 percent\u201d<\/p>\n
MLB: \u201cThere was some concern about the increase in his swing-and-miss rate as the summer progressed, though some scouts who know him well think he was gassed after playing what one evaluator estimated was well over 100 games during the summer. Those concerns resurfaced with some lackluster showings at the plate this spring at times.\u201d<\/p>\n
BA: \u201cHe has good balance, lets the ball travel and can hammer pitches on the outer third with impact the opposite way. Neyens\u2019 power does come with swing-and-miss, with some vulnerability against offspeed stuff, but he\u2019s also a patient hitter who will take his walks to help him get on base.\u201d<\/p>\n
Daniel Pierce, SS <\/p>\n
Ranks: ESPN (#20), Keith Law (#24), MLB Pipeline (#18), BA (#23) <\/p>\n
BA Scouting: Hit: 45. Power: 50. Run: 60. Field: 60. Arm: 60.<\/p>\n
MLB Scouting: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 60 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s an interesting prospect. Not in the sense that I want the Cardinals to get him – even if they had the 20th pick, I\u2019d probably say no thanks. No, he\u2019s interesting because Law thinks he has no power, but a good hit tool. Baseball America thinks he doesn\u2019t have a good hit tool, but the potential to have average power. MLB Pipeline believes in his hit tool, but not really his power. They all think he can stick at SS and will be good defensively. I don\u2019t like all this uncertainty over his bat though.<\/p>\n
MLB: \u201cPierce has a mature approach at the plate and focuses on making contact to all fields with his quick right-handed stroke. He has a history of producing against quality pitching in high school and on the showcase circuit, controlling the strike zone and not trying to swing for the fences.\u201d<\/p>\n
BA: \u201cWhile Pierce\u2019s bat trails behind his defensive game for now, he has a solid batting eye and approach could grow into average raw power and has also turned in 70-grade run times, though he\u2019s more consistently a plus runner.\u201d<\/p>\n
Law: \u201cPierce is a no-doubt shortstop who might be a 70 defender there at his peak, with good feel to hit but no physical projection and possibly just 40 power even when he\u2019s filled out.\u201d<\/p>\n
Slater de Brun, OF<\/p>\n
Ranks: ESPN (#20), Keith Law (#24), MLB Pipeline (#18), BA (#23) <\/p>\n
BA Scouting: Hit: 55. Power: 30. Run: 65. Field: 60. Arm: 50.<\/p>\n
MLB Scouting: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 65 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60<\/p>\n
Wow, it is possible for a high school prospect to be an outfielder. de Brun is considered a centerfielder, not a fringy one either. He\u2019s very fast and has the potential to be elite defensively at an important spot. Of course, he carries a downside and that\u2019s his size. He\u2019s 5\u201910 and possibly smaller than that. That\u2019s not as much of a downside as it maybe used to be, because Corbin Carroll exists. Of course, Carroll is still something of a unicorn, and just because one guy broke into being a star doesn\u2019t mean another will.<\/p>\n
As you can also see, there are concerns about his bat, not his hit tool, but that he will hit anything with authority. He has made strides already, adding strength this past spring. He\u2019d for sure be higher on this board if he were 6\u20191 or something.<\/p>\n
Law: \u201cHe has excellent feel to hit and projects to stay in center. He faces the same questions about his ultimate power level that all guys his size do.\u201d<\/p>\n
BA: \u201cHe added significant strength in 2024, and while he doesn\u2019t have much physical projection and doesn\u2019t look like he will be a big home run threat, he puts the ball in play at a high clip with consistent hard contact from his short, level swing from the left side.\u201d<\/p>\n
MLB: \u201cDe Brun\u2019s speed is also a huge asset in the outfield. He has plus range and is an excellent defender who can play center field for a long time. Teams will want to be convinced the Vanderbilt recruit can impact the ball enough in the spring, but those who believe in him as a future table-setter will consider de Brun in the same area as (Slade) Caldwell and Carroll.\u201d<\/p>\n
Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP<\/p>\n
Ranks: ESPN (#33), Keith Law (#46), MLB Pipeline (#16), BA (#20) <\/p>\n
BA Scouting: Fastball: 60. Slider: 55. Changeup: 55. Control: 50.<\/p>\n
MLB Scouting: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 <\/p>\n
Guess what, we have another potential two-way player here, though most sites seem to list him as a pitcher. He projects as a 1B\/corner outfield type who has 70 raw power on the scouting side according to Baseball America. While they gave him a 55 power on the scouting scale, they also gave him a 40 hit tool, so you can kind of see why everyone is assuming pitcher is where he ends up.<\/p>\n
Schoolcraft is 6\u20198 and throws up to 97 and BA says has \u201cthe look of someone who will continue to throw harder.\u201d It\u2019s kind of funny that Kiley McDaniel at ESPN and Keith Law are roughly in agreement on high school pitchers – I\u2019m sure Schoolcraft is as low as he is because of the attrition rate – while McDaniel went crazy on high school bats on his list. He has an absurd 12 high school bats in his top 23.<\/p>\n
BA: \u201cHis secondary stuff has taken a step forward, missing bats with a changeup that has good separation off his fastball and adding more power in 2024 to a mid-80s slider that has good action and is tough on lefties with his angle. Schoolcraft is well coordinated for his size, though as a 6-foot-8 pitcher, he\u2019s still learning to sync up his delivery to throw consistent strikes.\u201d<\/p>\n
MLB: \u201cAs a pitcher, he\u2019s up to 97 mph with his fastball, with the only knock against it a relative lack of spin and carry, so right now it can play a little straight.\u201d<\/p>\n
Law: \u201cHis arm is frequently late, which can often lead to problems with breaking stuff. It\u2019s a tantalizing foundation for a starter, though, between the size, arm strength and ability to create spin.\u201d<\/p>\n
And I\u2019ll stop there. I have to stop somewhere and the names I\u2019ve covered are roughly the only more or less consensus 1st round high school talents. Keith Law has Ryan Mitchell as a top 25 player in the draft, but he\u2019s not top 40 on any other list. MLB Pipeline has two high school bats in their top 30, Sean Gamble and Josh Hammond. Hammond is in the top 20 of ESPN\u2019s list, but not in Law or Baseball America\u2019s top 30. Gamble is also on ESPN\u2019s top 30, but then again so is everyone who has ever played baseball in high school. Gamble isn\u2019t top 40 by Law or Baseball America. I covered every top 30 high school prospect by Baseball America. Feels like a good place to stop.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ll be interrupted by a series preview, and it\u2019ll be college arms next Thursday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"On Monday, I tackled the high school bats. I expected to be finished with the high school bats,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":81261,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2276],"tags":[5,2015,356,2014,181,1854,2291,4,1586,4205,3227,1855,2016,2013],"class_list":{"0":"post-81260","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb-draft","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-birdos","10":"tag-draft","11":"tag-el","12":"tag-front-page","13":"tag-high","14":"tag-major-league-baseball-draft","15":"tag-mlb","16":"tag-mlb-draft","17":"tag-more","18":"tag-preview","19":"tag-school","20":"tag-st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis","21":"tag-viva"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/114631016669259248","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81260"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81260\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81261"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}