{"id":820881,"date":"2026-10-03T22:00:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-03T22:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/820881\/"},"modified":"2026-10-03T22:00:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T22:00:25","slug":"3-keys-to-padres-upsetting-the-brewers-in-the-nlds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/820881\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Keys to Padres Upsetting the Brewers in the NLDS"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Milwaukee Brewers won 103 games in the regular season, more than any MLB team. The San Diego Padres are the underdogs in the series<\/a>, and will play three of the five National League Division Series games in Milwaukee<\/a>, assuming the best-of-five matchup goes the distance.<\/p>\n

That said, the Brewers are beatable. Here’s how:<\/p>\n

1. Get to the back end of the Brewers’ rotation<\/p>\n

Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson are as good a 1-2 combination as maybe any team the Padres will face in October. After that, the Brewers’ rotation thins out considerably.<\/p>\n

Bullpen games could be in play in Games 3 and 4 in San Diego \u2014 either by design or, preferably for the Padres, if they take out the Brewers’ starting pitcher early.<\/p>\n

Of course, if the Padres fall into a 2-0 hole against the Brewers’ aces, each of those games will be a must-win. If they are able to take a game in Milwaukee, the Padres will need to take both games in San Diego anyway, to avoid facing Misiorowski in Game 5.<\/p>\n

2. Use the bullpen wisely<\/p>\n

With a great bullpen comes great responsibility.<\/p>\n

Craig Stammen tipped his hand about what mitigating his high-leverage relievers’ workload might look like in Game 1 of the wild-card series against the Chicago Cubs.<\/p>\n

He used Yuki Matsui for the eighth inning and Joe Musgrove for the ninth with an 8-0 lead. That’s a big reason why the Padres’ bullpen enters this series about as well-rested as one could expect.<\/p>\n

If the series goes deeper, pay attention to how Stammen deploys his relief pitchers. The Brewers’ lineup is tough 1-9; the gap between their best hitter and their worst isn’t great.<\/p>\n

Overusing Mason Miller, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam and Bradgley Rodriguez is a concern. So is using them in the wrong situation, against the wrong batters.<\/p>\n

3. Hit more dingers<\/p>\n

Teams that out-homered their opponents were 7-1 in the wild-card round. Last year, teams that out-homered opponents were 30-5 in the postseason overall.<\/p>\n

The Padres hit 183 home runs in the regular season, 15th in MLB. The Brewers ranked 29th with 154. It’s the Brewers’ most obvious disadvantage compared to the Padres.<\/p>\n

“Hit more dingers” is easier said than done, of course. But if the Padres seem to be taking more of an all-or-nothing approach at the plate compared to the Brewers, it’s by design. It’s how they got to this point \u2014\u00a0and it’s their best chance to advance in the series.<\/p>\n

Sign up for our free newsletter <\/a>and follow us on X\/Twitter<\/a> and Facebook<\/a> for the latest news.<\/p>\n

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