{"id":828692,"date":"2026-10-13T22:42:17","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T22:42:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/828692\/"},"modified":"2026-10-13T22:42:17","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T22:42:17","slug":"red-sox-should-consult-the-metrics-and-pass-on-sonny-gray-reunion-after-his-retirement-pivot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/828692\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Sox should consult the metrics and pass on Sonny Gray reunion after his retirement pivot"},"content":{"rendered":"

When the postseason ended, it seemed like Sonny Gray’s time in Boston was over. He made scathing comments about his usage in the Wild Card and gave a non-answer when asked whether he would return<\/a> to the Boston Red Sox organization, which didn’t look good. He was also unsure whether he would still be playing in 2027. <\/p>\n

Things have simmered down<\/a> in the week since the Red Sox were eliminated, and Gray has announced he will pitch again next season<\/a> and that he is open to a reunion with the Red Sox (subscription required). Seeing that time and some closed-door conversations with Craig Breslow and Chad Tracy<\/a> have helped to heal the wounds is good, but that doesn’t mean Boston should be calling for his services next season. <\/p>\n

Gray is more than likely a free agent headed into this winter. There is still the formality of declining his $30 million mutual option, which are very rarely picked up. Then the 37-year-old will head into the open market. <\/p>\n

Sonny Gray’s incredible season has markers that it may not be repeatable<\/p>\n

Somny Gray intends to pitch again in 2027 and is open to returning to the Red Sox as a free agent, per @alexspeier<\/a>. pic.twitter.com\/ON9Tcc290b<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Tyler Milliken (@tylermilliken_) October 9, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

The 14-year vet had an incredible season for the Red Sox, setting a career-low ERA at 2.72 and making 29 starts, pitching 169 innings. It was a big step forward from his 2025 season in St. Louis, but there are a lot of underlying numbers that should keep the Red Sox away. <\/p>\n

One of the biggest red flags was Gray’s drop in strikeouts. 2026 was the first season since 2016 that his strikeouts per nine innings fell below 8.0, and in six of the last seven years before 2026, he averaged at least one strikeout per inning. While the Red Sox pitching staff preached pitch-to-contact, seeing a major drop in strikeout ability is not good. <\/p>\n

Gray’s underlying data was also a concern. His FIP this season was 3.47. While not a bad mark, it was the sixth-largest gap in the negative direction in the sport this season, suggesting the Red Sox defense aided his ERA heavily. The righty also had a xERA of 3.85, a whole run higher than his ERA; another indicator that the defense helped him out this year. <\/p>\n

It’s not that Gray had a bad year; actually, quite the opposite. He’ll likely be inside the top 10 in Cy Young voting this year, but he’ll be looking for a big-money contract, and potentially for multiple years. His underlying data suggests what he did this season might not be repeatable, and if they are going to hand out the money necessary to sign him, just use it on someone else. <\/p>\n

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