{"id":829897,"date":"2026-10-15T12:00:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T12:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/829897\/"},"modified":"2026-10-15T12:00:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T12:00:25","slug":"what-is-real-and-what-isnt-about-2026-mlb-playoffs-so-far","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/829897\/","title":{"rendered":"What is real — and what isn’t — about 2026 MLB playoffs so far"},"content":{"rendered":"


The theme of the 2026 playoffs<\/a>: unhittable fastballs, unhittable changeups, unhittable sliders and sweepers and cutters and knuckle-curveballs and split-fingered fastballs. Pitchers are dominating this October like we haven’t seen in decades, with batters hitting just .227 and on pace for the lowest OPS since the 1983 postseason.<\/p>\n

Of the 30 games played, a team has scored two runs or fewer 19 times — or 31% of all team games played. Every lead change, and there haven’t been many of them, feels like a little miracle. The close, mostly low-scoring games have created a tense postseason but not necessarily the most exciting one (and last year’s playoffs are a tough act to follow anyway).<\/p>\n

While we’re still in the early stages of the league championship series — about halfway through the postseason — let’s take stock of what has happened so far, looking at the teams still alive and some of those that have been eliminated.<\/p>\n

\"\"Teams that are still in it\"\"TheMilwaukee Brewers<\/a> look unbeatable thanks to their bullpen<\/p>\n

Verdict: Real <\/p>\n

Milwaukee’s bullpen had allowed three earned runs in 32 innings, surrendering a batting average of .139. The bullpen outdueled San Diego’s vaunted pen in the NLDS. It has also twice rescued Jacob Misiorowski<\/a>, who didn’t last five innings in either of his postseason starts. It pitched 4 scoreless innings in Game 1 of the NLCS and then finished Game 2 with five perfect innings. Manager Pat Murphy has used seven different relievers, but two have stood out:<\/p>\n

Abner Uribe<\/a> throws a 99-mph sinker and an 88-mph slider. They look like the same pitch nearing home plate, but then the sinker often dives in on right-handed batters and the slider darts away. Pick your poison. Both pitches induce a high rate of ground balls. He’s often brought in to face the toughest part of an opponent’s lineup. He pitched a scoreless sixth inning against the Dodgers in Game 1 and got four outs in Game 2, though he did give up two runs and walked three in Game 3.<\/p>\n

Aaron Ashby<\/a> is a former starter who didn’t pitch in the majors in 2023 because of shoulder surgery but eventually returned as a top reliever the past two seasons. The lefty’s fastball averages 97.7 mph, and he has a starter’s repertoire with four different pitches. He’s Murphy’s secret weapon of sorts, as his background means he can comfortably go multiple innings — he was second among relievers in innings pitched in the regular season. He had a three-inning outing against the San Diego Padres<\/a> and then got 11 outs in the first two games of the NLCS, earning the save in Game 2.<\/p>\n

The Brewers have constructed elite bullpens for years now, and the common denominator for 2026: Throw hard. Their relievers have averaged 98 mph with their fastballs in the postseason (they were fourth in the regular season, averaging 95.9 mph).<\/p>\n

Two notes here. Across the entire postseason landscape, including starting pitchers, the average fastball has clocked in at 96.1 mph, continuing the increases we’ve seen since pitch tracking began in 2008. And those fastballs have been harder than ever to do damage on:<\/p>\n

The second note is that a hot bullpen has become a vital ingredient to winning in the playoffs this decade. The results for Milwaukee’s bullpen so far are reminiscent of the Houston Astros’ dominant postseason performance in 2022, when their relievers posted a 0.83 ERA in 54 innings, allowing a .126 average. Atlanta’s bullpen got hot in 2021 (closer Will Smith<\/a>, after a shaky regular season, tossed 11 scoreless innings with six saves) and the Dodgers’ pen carried the team to the 2024 title when its rotation was shaky.<\/p>\n

This is a significant change from the end of the 2010s, when deep rotations created the path to championships. When the Chicago Cubs<\/a> won Game 7 in 2016, then-manager Joe Maddon was determined to use just three pitchers, including starter Jon Lester<\/a> in relief; only when the game went into the 10th inning did Maddon use his second and third relief pitchers. In 2017, Houston skipper A.J. Hinch dumped closer Ken Giles and used starting pitchers in relief (Charlie Morton<\/a> pitched the final four innings of Game 7 of the World Series). In 2018, Boston Red Sox<\/a> manager Alex Cora had five different pitchers who both started and relieved in a game. The 2019 Washington Nationals<\/a> were 29th in the majors in bullpen ERA but won behind Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer<\/a> and Patrick Corbin<\/a> (who pitched three innings in relief in Game 7 of the World Series).<\/p>\n

This year’s Brewers showcase what a dominant bullpen can do: Misiorowski and Logan Henderson<\/a>, their top two starters, have lasted just 17 innings in their four starts, but the Brewers won all four games.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Verdict: Not real<\/p>\n

Please, let’s not go there just yet, even if they do have their backs against the wall in their quest to become the first NL team to win three consecutive World Series. If anything, the early results of this NLCS have shown how difficult it is to win in the postseason and to do it three years in a row — and, really, how fortunate the Dodgers were to win the past two World Series.<\/p>\n

Think of some of what went right for Los Angeles over the past two postseasons: shutting out the Padres for two straight games to win the 2024 NLDS, with the Mets upsetting the Phillies in the other series so the Dodgers faced an easier opponent in the NLCS; beating the Phillies last year on a pitcher throwing error; and Will Klein’s Herculean, out-of-nowhere relief outing in the 2026 World Series, not to mention Miguel Rojas’ unlikely home run and Isiah Kiner-Falefa<\/a> not getting a bigger lead off third base.<\/p>\n

Last year, the Dodgers’ slow play of their rotation worked perfectly: Shohei Ohtani<\/a>, Blake Snell<\/a> and Tyler Glasnow<\/a> were all healthy and rolling in October alongside Yoshinobu Yamamoto<\/a>. This year, Ohtani can’t pitch and Snell and Glasnow scuffled in their NLDS starts.<\/p>\n

Ohtani’s injury and offensive struggles also highlight how the Dodgers have been hemorrhaging 25 runs or so a year on offense since 2023: from 906 runs to 842 to 825 to 801. They can no longer count on superstar-level production from Freddie Freeman<\/a> and Mookie Betts<\/a> (who, by the way, is on a 30-game homerless streak in the postseason).That average postseason fastball velocity of 96.1 mph that we mentioned? The Dodgers were 11th in the regular season in OPS against fastballs of 96-plus mph. A power staff, such as the one Milwaukee possesses, is the way to beat the Dodgers.<\/p>\n

Of course, the Dodgers still won 100 games this season. They also have Josue De Paula<\/a>, who looks like Juan Soto<\/a>-Lite at the plate with his elite plate discipline and is ready to join the lineup in 2027, although they’ll have to figure out how to squeeze him into the outfield with Teoscar Hernandez<\/a> and Kyle Tucker<\/a> still under contract. And it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Dodgers find a way to sign Tarik Skubal<\/a>, even with the uncertainty over the labor situation.<\/p>\n

The organization remains strong, and it has a highly-regarded farm system beyond De Paula. But after three losses of the NLCS, the Dodgers look older and more vulnerable than at any point this decade.<\/p>\n

\"\"Chase DeLauter<\/a> is the breakout star of this postseason<\/p>\n

Verdict: Real<\/p>\n

DeLauter’s rookie season flew under the radar, but the 2022 first-round pick hit .287\/.363\/.457 with 16 home runs in 133 games. He’s hitting .346\/.452\/.538 with a home run, two doubles and four RBIs in seven games for the Cleveland Guardians<\/a> in the postseason.<\/p>\n

But here’s the stat that stands out — five walks and one strikeout. He has had some veteran at-bats: two seven-pitch walks against Freddy Peralta<\/a> in Game 2, an RBI double off Ian Seymour<\/a> in a left-on-left matchup later in that game, a first-pitch home run to the opposite field off Drew Rasmussen<\/a> in Game 1 and a first-pitch double off Tyler Wells<\/a> in the eighth inning to set up Nathaniel Lowe’s two-run single that broke up a 2-2 tie.<\/p>\n

Those types of at-bats mirror what we saw in the regular season, when DeLauter ranked in the 95th percentile in chase rate and 93rd percentile in whiff rate. He hit .323 against lefties, so that’s another positive, and he should learn to tap into more power in upcoming seasons.<\/p>\n

His issue has been staying healthy — he played just 57 games in the minors in 2023, 39 in 2024 and 42 in 2025, so he’s played more games this year than the past three combined. With fellow rookie Travis Bazzana<\/a>, who had a solid season with a .245\/.335\/.408 line, the Guardians have added two impact bats who should be in the middle of their order for years to come.<\/p>\n

\"\"TheTampa Bay Rays<\/a>‘ bullpen might be more vulnerable than we thought<\/p>\n

Verdict: Real<\/p>\n

Nobody is doubting closer Bryan Baker<\/a>. He’s the reason the Rays were the only team to not lose a game it led going into the ninth inning all season. He has made four postseason appearances and hasn’t allowed a hit. Manager Kevin Cash hasn’t had to extend him more than three outs yet, but it’s safe to say the Rays will win if they’re ahead in the ninth inning.<\/p>\n

But there have been a couple of hiccups from the rest of the bullpen in the first two games against Cleveland. The non-Baker relievers allowed five runs over the final two innings of Game 1. Wells, pitching for the first time in a month, entered in that tie game and gave up a weakly hit infield single to Jose Ramirez<\/a> and then the hard-hit double to DeLauter.<\/p>\n

Cam Booser<\/a> had already pitched, so Cash turned to Seymour, his No. 2 lefty, but he allowed the go-ahead hit to Lowe (who had gone 5-for-45 against left-handers in the regular season). Seymour had spent much of the season as a starter or bulk reliever, so he rarely pitched with inherited runners — only 10 all season. Down 4-3 in the ninth, Cash then somewhat curiously avoided Kevin Kelly<\/a>, his No. 2 righty behind Baker, and instead used Cole Sulser<\/a>, who allowed three runs.<\/p>\n

The Rays won Game 2, but Seymour let another inherited runner score when DeLauter doubled off him. With Griffin Jax<\/a>, who rarely goes more than five innings, and then Nick Martinez<\/a>, who got pulled in the fourth inning of his ALDS start against the New York Yankees<\/a>, taking the mound for Tampa Bay in Games 3 and 4, Cash might not get a lot of length from his starters these next two games. Whether the Rays can get the ball to Baker with the lead now looks like the biggest question of this series.<\/p>\n

\"\"Teams that have been eliminated\"\"ThePhiladelphia Phillies<\/a> will look vastly different when we see them next<\/p>\n

Verdict: Not real<\/p>\n

We asked this same question a year ago after the Phillies lost to the Dodgers in the NLDS and many suggested the Phillies needed a makeover. Following their wild-card series loss to the Atlanta Braves<\/a> this year, we came up with the same answer: not real. That proved mostly correct as the Phillies re-signed free agents Kyle Schwarber<\/a> and J.T. Realmuto<\/a> this past offseason, although they did lose Ranger Suarez<\/a> to the Red Sox. The core offensive group of Schwarber, Realmuto, Bryce Harper<\/a>, Bryson Stott<\/a>, Brandon Marsh<\/a> and Alec Bohm<\/a> have all been here for the team’s five postseason appearances since 2022, with Trea Turner<\/a> joining in 2023, a remarkable run of lineup uniformity.<\/p>\n

The Phillies are mostly stuck with this aging group at this point. Bohm is a free agent, so he’s probably gone, with rookie Aidan Miller a good bet to take over at shortstop or third base — Turner’s defensive metrics were terrible, so it might be time to move him to another position, perhaps the outfield. Stott and Marsh are heading into their free agent seasons, so they could be trade bait, but neither will return much. Indeed, that’s kind of the problem here: The position player group was remarkably healthy in 2026, with seven players appearing in at least 149 games (six with at least 155) and catcher Realmuto playing in 123, yet those eight players were worth just a combined 7.4 WAR via Baseball-Reference. Marsh (0.4), Realmuto (0.0), Turner (minus-0.1), Bohm (minus-0.2) and Justin Crawford<\/a> (minus-0.2) were essentially replacement level players.<\/p>\n

That’s why the Phillies didn’t win the division despite the stellar threesome of Cristopher Sanchez<\/a>, Jesus Luzardo<\/a> and Zack Wheeler<\/a>. Those three will be back, with Wheeler in the final year of his deal. That probably indicates one more run with this group. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski hasn’t held his end-of-season news conference yet, so we don’t know exactly what the Phillies have in mind; they did rehire Don Mattingly as manager after Alex Cora reportedly turned them down a second time. They’ll address the bullpen and will once again be on the prowl for a right fielder, but the 2027 Phillies will look a lot like the 2026 Phillies.<\/p>\n

\"\"TheNew York Yankees<\/a>will look vastly different when we see them next<\/p>\n

Verdict: Not real<\/p>\n

Speaking of makeovers, after another early playoff exit, it feels like the Yankees need one. The playoffs ended with a humiliating three-game sweep against the Rays, including an embarrassing four-error game along the way. Much of the criticism that followed focused on the defense, and understandably so — but it was the offense that once again let down the Yankees. In the Aaron Judge<\/a> era going back to 2017, the Yankees have hit .225\/.310\/.396 in the playoffs, with several series-losing flameouts at the plate. Against the Rays, they hit .130 and scored five runs. They could have had Ozzie Smith, Brooks Robinson, Willie Mays and Roberto Clemente playing defense and it wouldn’t have mattered.<\/p>\n

It has been 17 seasons since their last championship, with only one World Series appearance in 2024. It feels like general manager Brian Cashman needs to do something different … right?<\/p>\n

Yes, but — like the Phillies — the Yankees are kind of locked in to their roster. They do have some free agents: You can probably say goodbye to free agents Jazz Chisholm Jr<\/a>., Trent Grisham<\/a> and Paul Goldschmidt<\/a>, although Chisholm expressed a desire to return. Closer David Bednar<\/a> and top righty setup man Paul Blackburn<\/a> are free agents, two guys the Yankees will want to re-sign.<\/p>\n

But the Yankees are already committed to $202 million in 2027 salaries for just six players: Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger<\/a>, Gerrit Cole<\/a>, Max Fried<\/a>, Carlos Rodon<\/a> and Giancarlo Stanton<\/a> (mercifully, finally in the last year of his deal). Throw in another $16 million for Ryan McMahon<\/a>. There just isn’t a lot of flexibility here for a big makeover. George Lombard and Spencer Jones<\/a>, the 2026 rookies who will get a full season in 2027, won’t change the complexion of the Yankees’ offense either. Jones in particular has major strikeout issues.<\/p>\n

The rotation will make the Yankees contenders. Relying on what will be a 35-year-old Aaron Judge to carry the offense will only get more precarious as he gets older. They will hit a lot of home runs, as always. But the 2027 Yankees will look a lot like the 2026 Yankees.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

]<\/p>\n

Copyright \u00a9 2026 ESPN Internet Ventures. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The theme of the 2026 playoffs: unhittable fastballs, unhittable changeups, unhittable sliders and sweepers and cutters and knuckle-curveballs…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":829898,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[100722,5,51,50870,649,57,59,4,62,25,68],"class_list":["post-829897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-100722","tag-baseball","tag-cleveland-guardians","tag-delauter-chase","tag-espn","tag-los-angeles-dodgers","tag-milwaukee-brewers","tag-mlb","tag-new-york-yankees","tag-philadelphia-phillies","tag-tampa-bay-rays"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/117444819836576131","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/829897","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=829897"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/829897\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/829898"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=829897"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=829897"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=829897"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}