Baseball Savant<\/a><\/p>\n2. Increased Changeup Usage<\/p>\n
Liberatore has nearly tripled his changeup usage, jumping from 5% in 2024 to 13% in 2025. While it\u2019s still not his go-to pitch like his slider, it\u2019s played a crucial role in keeping right-handed hitters off balance.<\/p>\n
His changeup mirrors his slider\u2019s arm slot and location, making it harder for hitters to recognize what\u2019s coming. The deception is working\u2014hitters are expecting a breaking pitch, but instead, they\u2019re seeing an off-speed offering, leading to weaker contact and poor timing.<\/p>\n
3. Pitch Selection<\/p>\n
Liberatore\u2019s approach with two strikes has changed dramatically. Last year, it was curveball or slider in nearly every two-strike scenario.<\/p>\n
Now? While the slider is still the primary weapon, his four-seam fastball has become a legitimate strikeout option, generating a 33.3% whiff rate with two strikes. Hitters are sitting on breaking balls, only to be frozen by 94 mph heat on the edges.<\/p>\n
This sequencing shift has helped increase his opponents\u2019 chase rate by nearly 7%, proving he\u2019s expanding the zone strategically\u2014without sacrificing control.<\/p>\n
4. Whiffs Out of the Zone<\/p>\n
Liberatore has been exceptional at getting hitters to chase this season. His chase rate sits at 34.2%, ranking in the 92nd percentile among MLB pitchers. He\u2019s consistently fooling batters into swinging at pitches outside the strike zone\u2014a huge factor behind his elite walk rate.<\/p>\n
5. High-Leverage Execution<\/p>\n
This is where things really come together. In previous seasons, Liberatore leaned heavily on his fastball in big moments, throwing it 31% of the time when behind in the count.<\/p>\n
Now? His slider is just as viable in these situations, leading to more weak contact and whiffs. Hitters aren\u2019t tracking his pitches well, and even when they make contact, it\u2019s soft and inefficient.<\/p>\n
Hitters aren\u2019t seeing the ball well, they\u2019re whiffing just outside the strike zone, they cannot seems to guess what pitch is coming, and when they do make contact, it\u2019s stayed in the ballpark. His ground-ball rate has climbed, and his strikeouts remain efficient because he isn\u2019t wasting pitches. Liberatore is becoming a steady mid-rotation arm the Cardinals can rely on, if not one of their top starters. His ability to balance command, deception, and sequencing makes him one of the most interesting pitchers to watch as the season unfolds.<\/p>\n
But, as always, what do you think? Are we witnessing a real breakthrough, or is this just a well-executed hot streak? Drop your thoughts in the comments!<\/p>\n
Happy Sunday!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Baseball is a game of adjustments. Well, most sports are, really. Tiny tweaks in timing can turn failure…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":88628,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2403],"tags":[5,2015,160,2014,181,1658,253,9317,288,9316,4,21304,2016,287,673,67,4311,4310,1377,2013],"class_list":{"0":"post-88627","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-st-louis-cardinals","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-birdos","10":"tag-cardinals","11":"tag-el","12":"tag-front-page","13":"tag-has","14":"tag-hitters","15":"tag-liberatore","16":"tag-louis","17":"tag-matthew","18":"tag-mlb","19":"tag-opposing","20":"tag-st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis","21":"tag-st","22":"tag-st-louis","23":"tag-st-louis-cardinals","24":"tag-stlouis","25":"tag-stlouiscardinals","26":"tag-up","27":"tag-viva"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/114648212052395389","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88627"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88627\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88628"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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