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<\/p>\nNormally, I focus on veteran running backs in this series.\u00a0I don\u2019t include rookies I think will have great NFL debuts because they aren\u2019t really \u201cbreaking out\u201d from anything. Given all the rookie coverage I offer each year, it\u2019s also fun to highlight the veterans who are being overlooked. That said, this draft class essentially told me, \u201cToo bad, tough cookies.\u201d (Mmm, cookies!)<\/p>\n
If I eliminated running backs with a previous RB1 finish and didn\u2019t include rookies, I\u2019d struggle to find one breakout this year. So, in an unprecedented event, this year\u2019s breakout running backs piece will include rookies only.<\/p>\n
2025 Breakout Running Backs \u2014 Rookies OnlyAshton Jeanty, LV<\/p>\n
Case For: Even if Jeanty \u201conly\u201d has a Bijan Robinson-like rookie season, he\u2019d still be a Top 10 RB. Next!<\/p>\n
Case Against: He gets hurt?<\/p>\n
RB1 Tier Likelihood: 9.5\/10 (-0.5, only for injury risk)<\/p>\n
TreVeyon Henderson, NE<\/p>\n
Case For: All the \u201cE\u201ds in his name stand for \u201cexplosive.\u201d Henderson has Top 20 upside, even in a timeshare. And he doesn\u2019t have to be limited to a timeshare, as Henderson has three-down ability. For a fantasy comparison, touch-wise, think of James Cook. Rhamondre Stevenson has struggled with performance and injury since his strong 2022 season.<\/p>\n
Case Against: The Patriots offense could limit Henderson\u2019s ceiling, including touchdowns. Head coach Mike Vrabel might purposefully limit the workload due to Henderson\u2019s injury history. The average fantasy points needed to finish RB12 the past 10 years has been 221.6, and there has been just one instance of a running back having fewer than 200 touches and reaching the Top 12: James White in 2018, thanks in part to 87 receptions and 12 total touchdowns. Also, for Top 12 running backs without double-digit touchdowns, the minimum workload over the past 10 seasons was 272 touches.<\/p>\n
RB1 Tier Likelihood: 6.5\/10<\/p>\n
Omarion Hampton, LAC<\/p>\n
Case For: Similar to 2023 draftees Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, the gap from Jeanty to Hampton is not as wide as some make it out to be. Hampton possesses workhorse ability, including significant receiving upside. In fact, you could use Robinson\u2019s 2024 campaign (RB4) as the statistical ceiling for Hampton. The Chargers, under Jim Harbaugh, have a high-quality rushing offense, which included a combined 296 carries for 1,270 yards and 13 touchdowns for J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, neither of whom played a full season. It helps that the Chargers have a really good offensive line.<\/p>\n
Case Against: Najee Harris has been rather volume-reliant, but he\u2019s still a productive running back with four-straight 1,000+ rushing yards seasons. Weeks 3-4 were the only games Dobbins had over 60.0% of the RB touches with Gus Edwards active. The Chargers have one of the toughest schedules for running backs \u2026 on paper.<\/p>\n
RB1 Tier Likelihood: 6.5\/10<\/p>\n
RJ Harvey, DEN<\/p>\n
Case For: Harvey is similar in style to Alvin Kamara, who not only was an RB1 under Sean Payton but the No. 1 RB1 in 2020. In fact, Kamara put up 274.4 fantasy points during his rookie season, finishing third in fantasy behind Todd Gurley and Le\u2019Veon Bell. Audric Estime is a thumper, and Jaleel McLaughlin is a nice complementary piece, but neither has the upside of Harvey with his burst, elusiveness and receiving. Clearly, Payton believes the same, as during this write-up, the Broncos signed J.K Dobbins. Even so, Harvey doesn\u2019t move much in my ranks, as quick mathing of my early projections (coming soon!) spit him out as a mid-low RB2. Oh, and the Broncos have one of the best offensive lines in the league.<\/p>\n
Case Against: There are workload questions and snap-share risks, given Harvey\u2019s struggles with pass blocking. Payton uses multiple running backs, including four active ones on game day, at times. Somewhat a chicken-and-egg situation, but the Broncos\u2019 rushing offense finished mid-pack with just 12 touchdowns. Dobbins was recently signed, raising serious concerns that this backfield could become a full-blown committee and that anyone but Harvey sees the goal-line work.<\/p>\n
RB1 Tier Likelihood: 5.0\/10<\/p>\n
Quinshon Judkins, CLE<\/p>\n
Case For: Immediate lead option. Judkins has some overlap with Brian Robinson and Jordan Mason as an appealing RB2 \u2026 if given 65% or more of the work in Cleveland (more on that shortly). When drafted, Judkins had little preventing him from assuming a workhorse role (or one close to it).<\/p>\n
Case Against: The Browns followed up their early second-round Judkins pick by taking Dylan Sampson in Round 4. Sampson is a speedy weapon with some similarities to Justice Hill. Also, Jerome Ford is no slouch despite likely falling behind Judkins. The offensive line isn\u2019t what it was years ago, which, coupled with a likely low-scoring offense, will hamper any running back, even before factoring in a shared workload.<\/p>\n
RB1 Tier Likelihood: 4.5\/10<\/p>\n
Kaleb Johnson, PIT<\/p>\n
Case For: Johnson is a power back who fights for yards and rarely goes down easy \u2014 in other words, a tailor-made replacement for Najee Harris. For all the fantasy managers screaming the past two years, the Steelers haven\u2019t shown the willingness to let Jaylen Warren be a true lead\/workhorse. And, we know how reliant they have been on the running game since Ben Roethlisberger retired. They are second only to the Eagles in Rush% in goal-to-go situations (62.6%) since Big Ben\u2019s exit, and Harris had 58 of those rushes over the past three seasons. That\u2019s the fourth-most attempts among running backs in that span, and that\u2019s with Warren in the mix.<\/p>\n
Case Against: Power backs carry more risk in fantasy due to limited passing game upside, especially when the second option is good in that area. The backfield split adds risk already. Warren could look and perform better, as he did in comparison to Harris, and get the lead. If Warren leads, Johnson\u2019s floor is more worrisome, as a power complementary piece could see a 30% share, whereas a nice receiving option would normally see more, around 40%, or even 45-50%. The offensive line is still worrisome.<\/p>\n
RB1 Tier Likelihood: 4.0\/10<\/p>\n
Cam Skattebo, NYG<\/p>\n
Case For: Tough as nails. Grittier than this \u2026 guy?<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
A good receiver with three-down ability, Skattebo brings something the Giants have lacked for some time \u2014 unrelenting power. And they could lean into the run more often, given the quarterback situation. Even if Skattebo is in a timeshare, there\u2019s a great chance he\u2019s the goal-line option.<\/p>\n
Case Against: Not overly elusive. Tyrone Tracy is no slouch and is still in the mix to lead in touches, similar to Warren in Pittsburgh. The offense could easily limit any running back for the Giants, given the potential lack of scoring and offensive line concerns. The schedule \u2014 albeit, again, on paper \u2014 is brutal for any position.<\/p>\n
RB1 Tier Likelihood: 3.0\/10<\/p>\n
Bhayshul Tuten, JAX<\/p>\n
Case For: Tuten is not only speedy, but he\u2019s also shown great ability at getting outside and to the edge with nice moves in space, making defenders miss. Head coach Liam Coen has no ties to Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, drafting Tuten in Round 4, LeQuint Allen in Round 7 and adding Ja\u2019Quinden Jackson as an undrafted free agent. Hopefully, Coen can maximize Trevor Lawrence and this offense, which produced a Top 5 fantasy RB finish for Etienne in 2023.<\/p>\n
Case Against: Etienne has been sorely inefficient, but his career isn\u2019t dead \u2026 yet. Coen helping Etienne rebound isn\u2019t out of the question. Tuten isn\u2019t overly powerful, has fumbling concerns and won\u2019t shed many tackles. That means whether it\u2019s Etienne, Bigsby or even Allen, someone is likely sharing the touches. While Coen has been known to lean on his lead, there is still the potential for a full-blown committee, and the offensive line appears questionable at best.<\/p>\n
RB1 Tier Likelihood: 3.0\/10<\/p>\n
Veteran honorable mention<\/p>\n
Jordan Mason, MIN \u2014 Mason has been extremely efficient in his opportunities with 5.3 YPC and 8.7 YPR. Granted, that came in Kyle Shanahan\u2019s 49ers\u2019 offense, but Kevin O\u2019Connell has proven to be one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. You could argue there isn\u2019t much, if any, of a downgrade for Mason. Aaron Jones had over 300 touches for the first time in his career, partly due to the lackluster backup options, and he\u2019s now 30 years old. Mason would need a Jones injury to break out, but if you\u2019re looking for a high-end backup to target in drafts, Mason could push into the RB1 tier if Jones gets hurt.<\/p>\n
(Top photo of Ashton Jeanty: Ethan Miller \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Normally, I focus on veteran running backs in this series.\u00a0I don\u2019t include rookies I think will have great…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":96219,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2276],"tags":[5,20461,2291,4,1586,1082],"class_list":{"0":"post-96218","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb-draft","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-fantasy-football","10":"tag-major-league-baseball-draft","11":"tag-mlb","12":"tag-mlb-draft","13":"tag-nfl"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/114665643596429496","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96218","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96218"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96218\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96219"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96218"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96218"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96218"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}