PHILADELPHIA – Where the 76ers end up will depend on the health of a player who has had two left knee surgeries in 14 months and three in nine years.
This has always been the case.
What has changed is the level of intrigue surrounding what the team will do in the June 25-26 NBA Draft.
Right now, the Sixers are making headlines for exploring every option to land an impact player. They currently hold the No. 3 and No. 35 picks.
The Sixers have contacted the San Antonio Spurs about moving up one spot to potentially select Rutgers point guard Dylan Harper at No. 2. Rutgers forward Ace Bailey, Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe, Texas guard Tre Johnson and Duke swingman Kon Knueppel remain in play should the team stay at No. 3. The Sixers could also trade down a few spots to acquire one of the prospects they covet, plus a quality veteran or other assets to support their win-now approach.
But none of those scenarios will matter unless Joel Embiid is healthy and playing close to his dominant self.
The Eastern Conference is expected to be wide open next season, with Boston Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum sidelined with a ruptured right Achilles tendon. With Tatum out, the 2024 NBA champions are expected to make major roster moves and pursue a semi-rebuild while trying to get under the second tax apron.
But a Sixers roster without a healthy Embiid won’t be able to compete with NBA finalist Indiana Pacers or with the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks. It would also struggle against the rising Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic.
Whoever they draft likely won’t make the type of immediate impact needed to return the Sixers to contender status. Nor do they have the cap space to sign high-priced difference-makers next season, with $144.7 million committed to Embiid ($55.2 million), Paul George ($51.6 million) and Tyrese Maxey ($37.9 million).
The Sixers have more than $578.7 million tied up in their Big Three over the next several seasons. Given Embiid and George’s injury histories and recent declines in performance, those contracts could set the franchise back five to 10 years.
George, 35, has three years and $162.3 million remaining on the free-agent deal he signed in July. Embiid, 31, has four years and $248.1 million left on his contract after signing a three-year extension in September.
With an unmovable contract, the Sixers have no choice but to hope Embiid is indeed healthy and close to his MVP form.
The 2023 MVP and seven-time All-Star underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee on April 9 at NYU Langone Sports Medicine Center. Dr. Jonathan L. Glashow, who performed the procedure, has worked with and rehabbed several elite athletes, including Kawhi Leonard.
This latest operation followed the Sixers’ Feb. 28 decision that Embiid was medically unable to play and would remain sidelined for the season to focus on treatment and recovery.
He appeared in only 19 games this past season while struggling to regain strength in his left knee following a meniscus surgery Feb. 6, 2024. That procedure and other injuries limited Embiid’s 2023-24 campaign to 39 games. He also had left knee surgery to repair a meniscus tear in March 2017, which led to him playing just 31 games during the 2016-17 season.
Unfortunately for the 7-foot-2, 280-pound center, his total games missed (407) is approaching his games played (452).
Shortly after April’s surgery, the team said Embiid would be reevaluated in six weeks. But no update has been provided. At his season-ending news conference April 13, Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey expressed optimism that Embiid could return to his dominant form.
What gives Morey that confidence?
“Look, Coach (Nick Nurse) and I aren’t doctors, except for his name,” Morey said of Nurse, who holds a Ph.D. in sports leadership from Concordia University Chicago. “But we’re not doctors, and we have to rely on the information they give us to make our decisions. And it’s not just one doctor; we’re talking about multiple doctors. And Dr. Glashow, going in there for the surgery and coming out very optimistic, that makes us optimistic.”
But the season didn’t look promising for Embiid, especially in his final appearance on Feb. 22.
He remained on the bench the entire fourth quarter of a close game against the Brooklyn Nets, as Guerschon Yabusele proved to be a more effective option.
It was likely a humbling moment for a player who had been the league’s most dominant force just two seasons earlier.
Embiid struggled to move, especially on defense, due to knee issues. Nets post players scored on him with ease.
He also had trouble making shots, scoring 14 points on 4-for-13 shooting.
So in the fourth quarter, Nurse had a decision to make: bring the franchise star back or stick with Yabusele. Nurse chose the latter in what ended as a 105-103 loss at Wells Fargo Center.
“Well, that group was just playing so well together and had a good feel for the game at that point, and just wanted to let them roll with it,” Nurse said then.
But the entire season felt un-Embiid-like.
His averages of 23.8 points and 8.2 rebounds were his fourth- and second-lowest, respectively, in nine NBA seasons. He also shot career lows from the field (44.4%) and beyond the arc (29.9%).
Embiid looked worse in February than he had in December and early January.
Yet when healthy, his presence unlocks the Sixers’ offense, particularly for Maxey.
That’s because Embiid draws double teams, which frees up space for teammates. He’s also a dependable rim protector and, in recent years, has developed into a capable playmaker.
His presence helped fuel Maxey’s breakout 2023-24 campaign. The point guard was named an All-Star and the league’s Most Improved Player.
Without Embiid this past season, Maxey had to carry the team’s load. He averaged career highs of 26.3 points and 21.0 field-goal attempts, but shot a career-low 43.7% and committed a career-high 2.4 turnovers while facing heavy defensive pressure.
So, Maxey and the Sixers desperately need Embiid to bounce back. If he doesn’t, they’ll be in trouble – no matter who joins the roster.