The Golden State Warriors season is long over, and with the NBA Finals on the verge of ending, the offseason will officially soon be upon us. So, naturally I began a process of attempting to run through the Warriors offseason as if I was in the basketball operations department to prepare myself for as many possibilities as possible.

Normally I keep most of these notes, which are ultimately just my educated guesses, to myself, but I figured I would share them this year in hopes of helping readers get a sense of the scope of possibilities available to general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. as he works with Joe Lacob and Steve Kerr to build the 2025-26 team.

I ended up compiling 31 different scenarios (32 if you count the Desmond Bane trade that I had to cut after he was traded to the Magic), and split them into three different parts centered around the Dubs biggest offseason conundrum: Jonathan Kuminga.

Below are six scenarios for the Warriors offseason predicated on the team re-signing Kuminga. I am using a four-year, $100 million contract estimate with a starting salary of $22.5 million for Kuminga. While that may be lower than he is hoping for at the moment, a return to Golden State likely coincides with a light market.

(Links to the follow ups will be added here when they publish)
Part 2: 15 Jonathan Kuminga sign-and-trade scenarios
Part 3: 10 scenarios renouncing the rights for Jonathan Kuminga

Parameters:

Assume the Warriors renounce the rights to every free agent except for Kuminga before the start of each scenario.
I could only have the Warriors trade for the same player in two scenarios (and it had to be a different deal the second time).
I could only have the Warriors sign the same player as a free agent in one scenario.
There was no limit on how many scenarios I could have the Warriors re-sign their players.

These restrictions lead to Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney, Pat Spencer, and Braxton Key as largely filling out the back ends of these rosters. Payton and Looney could surely be replaced by other vet minimum players the Warriors could attract. Spencer and Key should largely be viewed as placeholders for open competitions that would go through training camp and the preseason, although they would obviously have incumbent advantages.

The case for re-signing Jonathan Kuminga (6)

Prior to Curry’s hamstring injury during the postseason, the Warriors rotation left some obvious areas for improvement. Ideally they could add a scorer and a center primary ball handler, a wing, and a center who Steve Kerr would trust in the playoffs, and at least one should be able to create their own shot. That’s a tall task for the Dubs given their limited flexibility.

Kuminga is the best athlete and second-best pure scorer on the roster right now. His fit is awkward and inconsistent performances as a defender and rebounder have justifiably frustrated Kerr and the team’s veterans, but he’s ultimately a talented 22 year old who seems well positioned to at least play a wing version of a Jordan Poole-type role if surrounded with enough shooting.

Whether you think Kuminga is on a development trajectory akin to Corey Maggette or Carmelo Anthony goes a long way toward how you feel about this conversation. Nevertheless, it should not be ruled out.

It’s worth noting that re-signing Kuminga would almost certainly put the Warriors above the first apron (since I do not foresee the Dubs moving Draymond Green). So, they would have no ability to use their traded player or bi-annual exception.

I intentionally am opening with one of the more boring offseason outcomes. In part, to prepare, but also because I’m not convinced this would be all that bad an outcome. The biggest question is whether the Warriors can convince one of the aging starting-caliber centers to sign with them for the taxpayer mid-level exception.

Scenario 1: Easy

sign Brook Lopez using taxpayer mid-level exception (TPMLE) (one-year, $5.7 million with player option)
re-sign Jonathan Kuminga (four-years, $100 million, starting salary $22.5 million)
sign Monte Morris (one-year, minimum salary)
re-sign Gary Payton II (one-year, minimum salary)

PG: Steph Curry, Monte Morris
SG: Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield
SF: Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, Gary Payton II
PF: Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Gui Santos
C: Brook Lopez, Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis, 41st overall pick

It may be boring, but if the Warriors can land either Brook Lopez or Al Horford (Lopez’s Bay Area ties make him seem more viable) using the TPMLE, there is a pretty strong case for running things back with a similar group next season.

The fact is Buddy Hield, Moses Moody, and Jonathan Kuminga are Golden State’s three most likely trade chips. Yet, Hield and Moody were critical to the Warriors success after the Jimmy Butler trade. Hield is one of the best shooters in the league and improved defensively. Despite his late-season struggles, Moody has consistently improved as a 3-and-D wing and shot 37.4% from three last season on more than 300 attempts. Trading either player will weaken Golden State’s wing depth behind Butler (a late-career player with a long injury history).

Trading Hield or Moody to solidify the Warriors center position is justifiable, but landing a free agent like Lopez makes that a moot point. The Dubs will likely still want an upgrade at backup point guard, but that’s the deepest position in this free agent class. There should be a couple solid options available to Golden State on veteran minimum contracts.

All that leaves Kuminga, whose uncomfortable fit with the Warriors is well documented. Still, the Dubs biggest need on the roster is pure scoring. Curry is in his late 30s and the next two most important players on the roster (Butler and Draymond Green) prefer defering to teammates for scoring. It seems like there should be enough runway for Kuminga to either be a scoring sixth man or the starting power forward that allows Green to shift to a lower usage impact bench role a la late-career Andre Iguodala.

Given Gary Payton II’s defensive impact and familiarity, he seems like an obvious reunion candidate on the veteran’s minimum. It’s possible that another contender desperate for a defensive wing is willing to use a small exception to offer Payton a raise, but his injury history and erratic shooting make that unlikely. Meanwhile, Monte Morris is a veteran point guard with some offensive punch that would add a solid change of pace option to the bench.

The Warriors would enter the season around $900,000 below the second apron, which would be a hard cap because of the TPMLE. Still, they would be able to aggregate contracts in trades and maintain the flexibility Kuminga, Moody, and Hield’s contracts should give them.

Scenario 2: Mo Wagner

trade Moses Moody to the Magic for Mo Wagner
re-sign Jonathan Kuminga (four-years, $100 million, starting salary $22.5 million)
sign Tre Jones using TPMLE (one-year, $5.7 million with player option)
re-sign Gary Payton II (one-year, minimum salary)
re-sign Braxton Key (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)

PG: Steph Curry, Tre Jones, Pat Spencer
SG: Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, 41st overall pick
SF: Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga, Braxton Key
PF: Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Gui Santos
C: Mo Wagner, Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis

Get ready for a lot of trades involving the Warriors and Magic. Orlando has several big men whose salaries fall in the $8-$15 million range they are expected to shop this offseason in search of shooting. The Magic traded massive draft capital for Desmond Bane, but would still be advised to use their center depth to add some more outside threats. Both Moses Moody and Buddy Hield remain excellent fits in Orlando.

The Magic may not be inclined to move Wagner, whose younger brother is becoming one of the face’s of the franchise, but he tore his ACL last season and is under contract via an $11 million club option. If Orlando has concerns, or is simply higher on their other options, swapping Wagner for a controllable young wing like Moody would be appealing.

Wagner is a legit stretch-five who has consistently scored at a high rate (21.5 points per 36 minutes since the 2021-22 season) throughout his career. If the Warriors want scoring, Wagner would be an ideal microwave big man. He has been held to a 10-20 minute per game role because of his struggles defensively, but that’s partially a product of Orlando’s consistently strong frontcourt depth. The Warriors may believe that Wagner would be a viable 25 minute per game center next to Draymond Green.

With Wagner locked into the starting spot, the Warriors would look to add one more piece with the TPMLE. While a wing would be ideal, there are probably going to be fewer viable wings available to the Dubs than centers and point guards. The dearth of free agent wings alongside a scenario where Moody is swapped for a big man would make a Kuminga reunion even more likely.

By adding a center via trade and re-signing Kuminga to solidify the team’s wing depth, the Warriors would be in strong position to land a backup point guard with a surprisingly strong pedigree, like Tre Jones, who loses the game of musical chairs for a non-taxpayer mid-level except (NTMLE) this offseason and opts to join a contender.

The Warriors would head into the season less than $50,000 below their second apron hard cap. However, Spencer and Key’s non-guaranteed contracts would give them some flexibility to play with the back of the roster while they could also still aggregate salaries in trades. It’s worth noting that Wagner’s $11 million expiring contract would be very tradeable at the deadline for an upgrade if his defense proved to be insufficient.

Scenario 3: Mark Williams

re-sign Jonathan Kuminga (four-years, $100 million, starting salary $22.5 million)
trade Moses Moody, GS 2026 1st to the Hornets for Mark Williams
sign Bojan Bogdanovic using TPMLE (one-year, $5.7 million)
sign Mason Plumlee (one-year, minimum salary)
re-sign Gary Payton II (one-year, minimum salary)
re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)

PG: Steph Curry, Pat Spencer
SG: Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, 41st overall pick
SF: Jimmy Butler, Bojan Bogdanovic, Gary Payton II
PF: Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Gui Santos
C: Mark Williams, Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Mason Plumlee

It’s rare that the public knows what it would take to acquire a player via trade before it’s happened, but the Hornets-Lakers Mark Williams trade at the deadline that was nixed by Los Angeles did just that. Charlotte was willing to move Williams for Dalton Knecht, a 2031 first-round pick and a 2030 first-round pick swap. There’s no reason to believe Williams’ value has increased since then, in fact, it’s probably gone down simply because the Lakers flagged his physical.

Nevertheless, Moses Moody is younger now than Dalton Knecht was before his NBA debut and is already a better player. While the Warriors 2026 first-rounder is unlikely to fall into the lottery, it would give Charlotte another pick to work with in a draft that is currently viewed as having a strong class. The Hornets would surely be intrigued by this offer.

In some ways Williams is an even more extreme version of Wagner. He’s younger (24) and has been even more productive (15.3 points and 10.2 rebounds per game last season), but has horrendous defensive metrics and a concerning health history that already led one team to nix a trade. While Williams will not turn 24 until December, he has never appeared in more than 44 games in any of his three NBA seasons.

Still, there’s a reason a contender, like the Warriors would be willing to roll the dice. His upside is obvious, and Golden State would have reason to believe his defense could improve outside of Charlotte’s longstanding losing culture.

Williams’ injury history would likely push the Warriors to target another viable backup center. Re-signing Kevon Looney would make sense, but given the Dubs’ struggles with size, Mason Plumlee could be another good fit.

With center settled, this scenario has the Warriors landing one of the biggest question marks heading into free agency: Bojan Bogdanovic. Bogdanovic missed all of last season after undergoing foot surgery and there have been no updates on his status since he was waived at the trade deadline.

At 36, a retirement announcement may be coming soon. However, if he thinks he has another season left in the tank, the taxpayer mid-level exception would be a gamble worth making on a career 39.4% three-point shooter who averaged 15.2 points per game in his last NBA season.

Given the uncertainty surrounding Bogdanovic, re-signing Kuminga for depth purposes would continue to make a lot of sense. If Bogdanovic rebounds and emerges as a closing option, then it would be even easier to dangle Kuminga at the deadline for other upgrades. The Warriors would be about $3.6 million below a second apron hard cap heading into the season with 15 players under contract.

Scenario 4: Robert Williams

trade Moses Moody, Trayce Jackson-Davis to the Trail Blazers for Robert Williams, GS 2028 2nd, POR 2032 2nd
re-sign Jonathan Kuminga (four-years, $100 million, starting salary $22.5 million)
sign De’Anthony Melton with partial TPMLE (one-year, $4 million)
sign Charles Bassey (one-year, minimum salary)
re-sign Kevon Looney (one-year, minimum salary)
re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guranteed, one-year minimum salary)

PG: Steph Curry, De’Anthony Melton, Pat Spencer
SG: Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield
SF: Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga
PF: Draymond Green, Gui Santos, 41st overall
C: Robert Williams, Quinten Post, Kevon Looney, Charles Bassey

If the Warriors are unable to find a starting center they like in free agency, they will be at the whims of the trade market. If they re-sign Kuminga, they will be above the first apron and have even less flexibility in trades. So, it’s very possible they could be backed into a corner where they trade Hield or Moody for far less than they’d like. Enter Robert Williams, whose salary the Warriors could still match as a first apron team by aggregating Moody and Jackson-Davis.

Unlike some of the other centers in the Warriors price range, Williams is an excellent rim protector and all-around defender. While he’s not a shooting threat, Williams is an excellent rim runner and has a decent feel as a passer for a big man. Williams shares several similarities with former Warriors center Andrew Bogut.

Parting with Moody (and Jackson-Davis) for a player on an expiring contract who has appeared in just 26 total games over the past two seasons would be difficult to stomach, but a healthy Williams would be an undeniably great fit in Golden State. The Blazers also have some future second-round picks they could send back as sweetners to make it tolerable for the Dubs front office.

Re-signing Looney and adding Charles Bassey (a 24-year old who has been fourth center with the Spurs for the last three seasons) would provide the necesary injury insurance behind Williams at center.

Since Kuminga and Williams’ contracts are so sizable, the Dubs would have to choose between using the TPMLE and exceeding the second apron. A reunion with De’Anthony Melton makes all the sense in the world this offseason, but the question is whether he would be gettable on a minimum salary given his injury status. If they could, they could sign him, Spencer, and Payton to fill out the roster above the second apron. If not, Melton would be worth some of the TPMLE. They could offer him slightly less than the full amount in this scenario.

Scenario 5: Bradley Beal

re-sign Jonathan Kuminga (four-years, $100 million, starting salary $22.5 million)
sign Bradley Beal (one-year, minimum salary)
trade Moses Moody, Buddy Hield, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Gui Santos to the Trail Blazers for Robert Williams, Matisse Thybulle, GS 2028 2nd, POR 2032 2nd
sign DeAndre Jordan (one-year, minimum salary)
sign Bol Bol (one-year, minimum salary)
re-sign Gary Payton II (one-year, minimum salary)
re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)

PG: Steph Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Pat Spencer
SG: Bradley Beal, Matisse Thybulle, 41st overall
SF: Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga
PF: Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Bol Bol
C: Robert Williams, Quinten Post, DeAndre Jordan

The odds are Bradley Beal is not getting bought out with the Suns, in large part because he does not want to leave. However, let’s say the Warriors are doing a bit of tampering. The Suns can offer Beal about $80 million to buyout the final two years and roughly $110 million of his contract. Potentially giving up $30 million is nothing to scoff at, but Beal is far from washed up. How much could Beal net in free agency next offseason, when far more teams are expected to have cap space, after playing on a contender alongside Curry, Butler, and Green?

On paper, the Warriors are the best fit in the league for Beal, where he would immediately become their second-best scorer, provide plenty of spacing for Kuminga, Butler, and Green, while also joining a defensive scheme that should be well-equipped to make up for his shortcomings.

If the Dubs were able to land Beal and retain Kuminga, they would have enough secondary scoring to prioritize defense with the rest of the roster.

With that approach in mind, expanding a Moody for Williams deal to also bring Matisse Thybulle to Golden State makes a lot of sense. Thybulle may be the best wing defender in the NBA and is entering the final year of his contract. He has also developed into a viable three-point shooter. Injuries limited him to 15 games last season, but that was the first significant absence of his career.

In this deal, the Blazers would turn Williams and Thybulle’s expiring contracts into Moody and fliers on Santos and Jackson-Davis, while they could presumably swap Hield to a third team to recoup the second-round picks they sent to Golden State.

The Warriors would push up against the second apron, which would be a hard cap for them after aggregating salaries in the deal with Portland. However, they would have enough space to retain Spencer (or another early-career point guard) and replenish their frontcourt depth, adding a veteran rim protector in DeAndre Jordan alongside a younger stretch big in Bol Bol.

Few scenarios are more unlikely than this one, but it’s fun to think about what would be possible if the Beal domino fell.

Scenario 6: Walker Kessler

trade Moses Moody, 41st overall pick, GS 2026 1st, right to swap GS 2029 1st, right to swap GS 2031 1st to the Jazz for Walker Kessler, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
re-sign Jonathan Kuminga (four-years, $100 million, starting salary $22.5 million)
sign Duncan Robinson using TPMLE (one-year, $5.7 million with player option)
sign Dalano Banton (one-year, minimum salary)
re-sign Kevon Looney (one-year, minimum salary)
re-sign Gary Payton II (one-year, minimum salary)

PG: Steph Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Dalano Banton
SG: Duncan Robinson, Buddy Hield
SF: Jimmy Butler, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Gary Payton II
PF: Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Gui Santos
C: Walker Kessler, Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Kevon Looney

There are few players in the league whose trade chances are harder to gauge than Walker Kessler. One of the best shot blockers in the league, Kessler has been held onto tightly by the Jazz in trade discussions over the years. However, his value has arguably plateaud after an excellent rookie season.

With extension-eligibility nearing, Utah could find itself in a difficult position. Kessler is a promising young player, but his production would seemingly put him in line for a deal paying at least $20 million per season. The advanced numbers are less keen on his impact, though. Turning Kessler into Moody, the 41st pick, a 2026 first, and an unprotected first-round swap in a likely post-Steph Curry future would be nothing to scoff at.

For the Warriors, Kessler’s shotblocking and offensive rebounding abilities would bring a new dimension to the roster. Moreover, Kerr, Green, and Butler would love the opportunity to help mold the 24-year old defensively as he enters his prime. While Kessler’s offensive and athletic limitations may force him out of playoff rotations against certain matchups, he would be an excellent pairing with Quinten Post to fully eliminate the need for Green to play center during the regular season.

In need of shooting to compliment Kessler, the Warriors would need to be overwhelmed with an offer to part with Buddy Hield. Without other clear trade options, Golden State would turn to the TPMLE. Outside of Beal, no potential free agent would be a better fit than Duncan Robinson.

The Heat are hoping to trade Robinson this offseason, which would end any speculation of him joining the Warriors. However, with more than half of his salary ($10 million) not guaranteed, Miami could be forced to waive him to create space for other moves. As a free agent, Robinson could be intrigued by teaming up with Curry and Hield’s elite shooting alongside a reunion with Butler, who is the primary reason he got a big contract in Miami.

Since Kessler’s salary is so small, the Warriors could re-sign Looney to serve as a fourth center and veteran leader. They could also take a flier on Dalano Banton an intriguing young point guard with good size (6’9), which could prove valuable in balancing the Warriors as they lean on smaller guards like Curry and Podziemski.

Even after filling out a full 15-player roster, the Dubs would still have more than $2.4 million in breathing room below the second apron.