Calvin Barrett is a writer, editor, and prolific Mario Kart racer located in Tokyo, Japan. Currently writing for SB Nation and FanSided, he has covered the Utah Jazz and BYU athletics since 2024 and graduated from Utah Valley University.

The Ace Bailey narrative has certainly shifted.

It wasn’t even eight months ago when Rutgers’ freshman wing, Airious “Ace” Bailey (possibly the coolest first name for a wing ever), was viewed as a can’t-miss prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft class — to the point where anyone who projected him to slide lower than third in the draft order was mocked, scorned, and subsequently expelled to the basketball equivalent of a leper colony via flaming trebuchet.

…OK, maybe it wasn’t that dramatic.

The point is, Ace Bailey has essentially been a top-three lock until the past few weeks, where public opinion of the springy, free-flowing wing has plummeted to the point where his projected draft range is bordering on unrecognizable.

As it stands, the top two draft selections are virtually guaranteed, with Cooper Flagg likely already home shopping in Dallas while Dylan Harper is filling his phone’s reminders app with notifications titled “The Alamo”, which are regularly at the top of his home screen.

From the third pick onward, the gates are wide open, and Ace’s yard has been overrun.

Is the Slide as Slick as They Say?

So here’s how the rug was yanked from below Bailey’s feet. His private workout schedule has been… underwhelming? And by underwhelming, I mean non-existent. Literally non-existent. He’s the only prospect in the projected lottery to abstain from working out with any team, according to Draft Express’ Jonathan Givony.

NEWS: Rutgers star Ace Bailey has canceled his workout with the Philadelphia 76ers, sources told ESPN.

Bailey remains the only US-based prospect yet to visit any NBA teams.

The Sixers have not ruled out selecting Bailey, sources say.

STORY: https://t.co/xiPP7zMOLb pic.twitter.com/ikFH2f9bkG

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) June 19, 2025

Ace’s absence from workouts is raising red flags across the league. Does this pattern of flakiness indicate a lack of focus, care, or even common sense? Is he too immature to accept his role on his new team? All of these questions have sparked more confusion, leading to higher levels of speculation and a media firestorm seemingly hell-bent on tanking Bailey’s stock.

Combine that with an underwhelming appearance at the NBA Draft Combine from an athletic standpoint — where his vertical and measureables didn’t bounce off the page as we expect a wing of his ilk to bounce off the floor. Here’s what I wrote back in May about his missteps at the combine:

“…Ace’s 34.50” vertical falls below the launches of Flagg, Edgecombe, and Johnson, three players likely to breach the top 5 in the final draft order, with Edgecombe and Johnson threatening to bump Bailey from the top 3.”

Ace dips from a likely top 3 selection to the 3-to-5 range.

Enter the Utah Jazz, holders of the fifth pick in the draft order, who could stand to benefit the most from Bailey’s descent into their reach. Utah has torn its franchise down to studs in the hope of constructing a championship core through the draft, and coughing up the fifth selection in the lottery after finishing with a league-worst 17 wins was a tragic result in desperation to find a franchise centerpiece.

So, maybe the Jazz start crossing their fingers in hopes that Bailey will drop to 5?

Not so fast, because word is reaching us that Ace “doesn’t have much interest in Utah”? Cue the circus music behind mock drafts of Ace sliding past the Jazz and falling to sixth, seventh, and below in the order in a spiraling descent into a bottomless pit of doom and disaster and horror and—

Record scratch.

Hold the Phone.

I’m going to flex my power as a disembodied jumble of words on the internet and stop the narrative right here in favor of a moment of sober contemplation.

No rookie ever
wanted to play for the Jazz
This should not shock you

“Has Never, Will Never” a haiku by Calvin Barrett, 2025

I’m going to halt the insanity right there and silently remind you that the Utah Jazz are interested in grabbing a potential star player. If that player is slightly hesitant about playing in a relatively unpopular state he has never been to before, this is not an obstacle unfamiliar to the organization, and it certainly won’t dissuade them if Ace Bailey is available with the fifth pick.

I don’t buy into the panic surrounding Bailey’s draft stock, and neither should you. Will an established team like Philadelphia patiently undertake Ace’s development? Maybe not. Does Charlotte have their sights set on VJ Edgecombe if he is indeed available at four? If reports are true, sure.

But should the Utah Jazz, like recent momentum would suggest, overlook all the positives about Bailey as a prospect in fear that he might rather play in a city like Philadelphia, Washington, or Brooklyn?

No. Stop it. Am I the only person who remembers why Ace was such a highly sought-after player in the first place?

As a defender, Ace is exceptional considering his load on the offensive end (2.3 steals plus blocks a night as a freshman). On the offensive end, Ace uses his explosion, frame, and tough shot-making ability to pile on the points.

Don’t overthink it, and don’t buy into the negative momentum. Ace Bailey would be an A+ pick for the Jazz at 5 — don’t expect them to pass up on such an opportunity if it appears. He comes with his risks, but could end up a star if he takes off.