There have been 19 Game 7s in NBA Finals history. The 20th will come Sunday night in Oklahoma City.
Not since 2016 has there been a Game 7 in the NBA Finals. The encouraging news for OKC: Home teams are 15-4 in these situations.
Ahead of the final Thunder-Pacers clash, we look at both teams’ path to victory and which we think will prevail.
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How does the Thunder win Game 7?
Joel Lorenzi: Playing to the cliché symphony here, but OKC has to lean into its identity. Too many of these games have taken on different lives, and the Thunder’s two most convincing wins in this series have come when it most closely resembles its identity — or any version of a decent team, for that matter. In OKC’s Game 2 and Game 5 wins, it averaged 34 3-point attempts to Indiana’s 35, on par with the deep-chucking Pacers. In its losses, the Thunder has averaged 27.3 3-point attempts to the Pacers’ 36. OKC has had four games this series with 16 or fewer assists: its three losses and Indiana’s late Game 4 collapse. It shouldn’t need to play Indiana’s game. But the Thunder can’t beat itself by playing an outdated game and into the Pacers’ hands. There has to be some middle ground between Game 5 and Game 6. Game 6 felt like an outlier of a stink bomb, and elements of Game 5 felt exceptional for the Thunder’s standards in these Finals. OKC has to prove that Game 6 was closer to a fluke.
Joe Mussatto: By doing classic Thunder things. Things the Pacers beat the Thunder at in Game 6. Swarming the basketball, forcing turnovers and converting those takeaways into easy buckets on the other end. The Thunder’s defense has been the NBA’s most dominant unit all season. What more fitting way to end the season than putting the Pacers in a stranglehold in Game 7? On the other end, the Thunder’s offense has been wayyyy better at home than on the road in these playoffs. SGA and J-Dub will do their thing. Role players will hit shots.
Jenni Carlson: Gotta get back to playing defense at the level that it played all season. The Thunder has been a defensive menace throughout these playoffs, and even on nights when shots haven’t fallen — sometimes lots of shots — Oklahoma City has won because of how much it disrupts opponents. That defense disappeared for much of Game 6, overwhelmed by the aggression and desperation that the Pacers had. Now, the Thunder has to be just as desperate. If that shows up like it should on the defensive end, the Thunder should be in good shape regardless of what happens on the other end.
Justin Martinez: By not playing out of character. OKC committed 21 turnovers in Game 6 compared to Indiana’s 11 turnovers. It’s only the third time all postseason that the Thunder has lost the turnover battle. And Shai Gilgeous-Alexander recorded more turnovers (eight) than made shots (seven) for the first time since Dec. 7, 2022. Numbers like that aren’t normal for OKC, which has to go back to playing its usual brand of basketball in Game 7. Take care of the ball. Force turnovers. Capitalize. Win.
How do the Pacers win Game 7?
Jenni Carlson: If they’re within even an arm’s length going into the fourth quarter, the Pacers have a chance. They just keep coming, and so a 10- or 12-point Thunder lead at the start of the final frame won’t be safe. But (and this won’t be easy) the Pacers have to find a way to keep it that close. The Thunder has played so well at home and the Paycom Center crowd has been such an asset that blowouts can happen in a flash. But the Pacers didn’t luck into a Game 7. This team is legit. If the Thunder doesn’t put them away, doesn’t go out and win the game, the Pacers will.
Justin Martinez: By winning the bench battle. The team that has scored more bench points in this series is 4-2. Obi Toppin will have to continue to knock down that corner 3-pointer. T.J. McConnell will have to continue to provide a jolt of energy with his hustle plays and steals. And Bennedict Mathurin, a microwave scorer, will have to heat up. If Indiana can check off those boxes, it’ll have a chance to pull off the ultimate upset.
Joe Mussatto: On a shot at the buzzer. Really, though. The Thunder is 10-2 at home in the playoffs, pummeling opponents by 20.7 points per 100 possessions. The two losses came on two last-second shots: Aaron Gordon in Game 1 of the Denver series, and Tyrese Haliburton in Game 1 of these NBA Finals. And the Thunder was in control of both of those games until it suddenly wasn’t. The Thunder isn’t unbeatable at home, but no team has straight up outplayed OKC on its own court. The path for the Pacers is to survive the early waves that are sure to come. To remain standing heading into the fourth quarter. And if it’s a game in the fourth, Haliburton can happen.
Joel Lorenzi: With all the small-time, unlikely, David-and-Goliath efforts that’ve buoyed them thus far. The detail and ferocity involved in TJ McConnell’s backcourt interceptions. The sparks that fly when Obi Toppin hits a deep 3 or flushes a putback. Aaron Nesmith’s involvement on the assembly line, drilling 3s and moving without the ball. Those things add up. Inside the logistics of the Pacers leaning more on such an uncommon level of synergy than a true superstar are those plays. Effort is undeniable. Indiana, at its best, has stunned OKC with it.
And the winner is …
Joel Lorenzi: Oklahoma City, and probably for all the cheesy reasons that casual fans will point to. Home crowd. The imaginative case study that role players play better at home. That the Thunder has responded virtually every time it’s been questioned or knocked off its block this season. It responded when the Grizzlies mounted a near 30-point lead in the first round. When Denver pushed it to a Game 7. When Minnesota blew the doors off it in Game 3. Why should that end here? The Thunder is a plus-247 at home in these playoffs. It’s also a minus-67 on the road, a canyon-sized swing that just feels right upon hearing it. Its only home losses have come by heartbreak, by the smallest of margins. Does Indiana have enough heart left to gut one out in perhaps the most deafening building in the NBA?
Justin Martinez: OKC. If anyone says Indiana, I’m not mad at them. This is a series where logic should be thrown out the window. Anything can happen in a Game 7, and the Pacers have repeatedly proven they can make things happen. But OKC is still the better team on paper, and it has played significantly better at home this postseason. I’m going with the Thunder.
Jenni Carlson: I picked the Thunder (in five, but still) at the start of the series, and I’m sticking with Oklahoma City. As disheartening a performance as Game 6 was — and make no mistake, it was bad — the Thunder has shown itself capable of learning lessons quickly, of taking disappointment and turning it into fuel, of course correcting almost in real time. What’s more, every time it has played a must-win game or even a really-really-need-to-win game, the Thunder has triumphed.
Joe Mussatto: Game 7s often devolve into rock fights. If that’s the case, advantage Thunder. We’ve seen OKC thrive in desperation. Game 4 at Denver. Game 7 vs. Denver. Game 4 at Indiana. I think they’ll do it again in the biggest game of them all.
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