Just like they’ve been every game in the 2025 NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers are underdogs. The Oklahoma City Thunder are 7.5-point favorites for Sunday’s Game 7 in OKC.

But despite the hefty spread, there seems to be more belief in the Pacers than in previous games. That’s likely because few expected Indiana to push the series this deep and also the manner in which they forced a Game 7 with its Game 6 demolition.

Here are our IndyStar staff predictions, plus some from around the web:

∎ Dustin Dopirak, IndyStar: Pacers 111, Thunder 109. 

I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen in this game. But the most fitting thing considering the way these playoffs have gone would be for the Pacers to win on a Tyrese Haliburton game-winning 3. So let’s go with that.

∎ Gregg Doyel, IndyStar: Pacers

I’ve got the Pacers winning game seven, because I think the Pacers are better. Don’t ask me why one team won 68 games but the team I think is better won 50. But that’s what I think.

∎ Matt Glenesk, IndyStar: Pacers 108, Thunder 104

I’ve picked the Pacers throughout the playoffs, so I’m not about to stop now. After Game 6, you feel there’s real belief among the Pacers. And after OKC’s dud in Game 6, you’d imagine there’s some doubt within the Thunder. It’s been a great series, and it’s only fitting we get a Game 7.

More: Pacers have a chance to be ‘the most unusual, unexpected NBA champion in the history of the sport’

Making history: Pacers do something that’s never been done in NBA playoffs

∎ Nat Newell, IndyStar: Thunder 115, Pacers 109

Thunder will be ready for a less mobile Tyrese Haliburton but this all comes down to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The MVP can’t turn in another lackluster performance … and he won’t. 

∎ Zach Osterman, IndyStar: Pacers

Oklahoma City has unloaded its arsenal on the Pacers, and they’re still kicking. If anything, they showed OKC its weakness in Game 6 in a way nobody else really has in these playoffs. Confidence is a dangerous thing, and Indiana has it in abundance. Pacers win close, late.

∎ Nathan Baird, IndyStar: Pacers

I love taking the Pacers and the points here. I’m less excited about picking them to win outright. But I will, because the team of destiny vibe that built over the first three rounds has never dissipated.

∎ Dana Hunsinger Benbow, IndyStar: Pacers

After six games of deep analysis, the Pacers  have OKC figured out. Pacers win. Proving home court advantage at this point doesn’t mean squat. And finally winning one for Herbie means everything.

∎ Justin Martinez, The Oklahoman: Thunder 111, Pacers 107

Maybe Rick Carlisle has another team of destiny on his hands after leading the Dallas Mavericks to a 2011 title over the Miami Heat. Maybe the oddsmakers in Las Vegas were wildly wrong about this series for once. Maybe it’s too soon for the young Thunder to fully take the NBA by storm. But I don’t think it is. I’m still going with OKC, which has played significantly better at home this postseason. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will surely bounce back after a rough Game 6, and the Thunder’s defense will surely return to its disruptive ways. Give me OKC to win it all.

∎ USA TODAY Sports staff made their predictions for Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals:

Jeff Zillgitt, USA TODAY: Thunder 101, Pacers 96Lorenzo Reyes:, USA TODAY Thunder 107, Pacers 106Scooby Axson, USA TODAY: Pacers 116, Thunder 113James H. Williams, USA TODAY: Thunder 110, Pacers 105

I’m gonna pick the Thunder to win Game 7 because home team season-long resume Denver series blah blah blah.

But the Pacers are the scariest possible Game 7 underdog. These games are all nerves and random role players getting hot for four minutes and that’s their whole deal.

— Sam Quinn (@SamQuinnCBS) June 20, 2025

∎ SBNation writers make their predictions:

Ricky O’Donnell: ThunderMookie Alexander: ThunderJacolby Hart: PacersMark Schofield: ThunderDavid Fucillo: PacersJared Mueller: ThunderJP Acosta: ThunderNoa Dalzell: PacersPacers vs Thunder NBA Finals Game 7 betting odds

via BetMGM

Game 7 favorite: Thunder by 7.5 points

Over/under: 214.5 total points

Moneyline: Pacers +260, Thunder -325

ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Thunder a 59.3% chance of winning.

Get IndyStar’s Pacers coverage sent directly to your inbox with our Pacers Update newsletter.