Soon after projected No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg and the rest of the 2025 NBA Draft’s lottery picks fly off the board Wednesday, NBA general managers will find an absence of prospect depth.

Many draft-eligible players not projected for the lottery were advised by agents to prioritize college basketball’s commercial opportunities and clear development pathways over the lack of certainty and cash guarantees of being a late NBA selection.

The NBA announced last month that 50 non-international early-entry players had withdrawn their names from the draft—a sign of aspiring next-level pros taking caution when they have the option to return to school.

“It’s a risk assessment,” Life Sports Agency founder and NBA agent Todd Ramasar said in a phone interview. “Should I take $2.5-$4 million from this school that’s fully guaranteed? I know I’m going to start and enjoy the college experience. Or should I take the risk, and maybe be paid the same amount of money, if I’m a first-round pick? And not if I’m a second-round pick, because if I’m projected [there] then I have a chance to go undrafted.”

Ramasar, who represents Nique Clifford from Colorado State and Cedric Coward from Washington State, said college players enjoy benefits from gross NIL income since taxes are typically not withheld on 1099 marketing dollars (though players are responsible for paying those taxes later). That’s compared to NBA players, who are W2 employees and are subject to net pay after taxes. “If you’re smart and have the right tax advisors, there’s [different] write-offs or you can put parents on salaries,” he said. “You can be a lot more creative.”

ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony said teams have indicated that picks in the 45-59 range are not as coveted anymore because of the lack of potential, with a slew of players returning to school to develop and reap NIL dollars instead.

“They’re making more money than they will as second-round picks or on two-way contracts,” Givony said on a media call this week. “It’s a win-win for everybody. It takes a little bit of depth out of the second round but at the same time NBA teams are getting more mature and polished players in the coming years.”

The NBA’s current collective bargaining agreement incentivizes teams to seek second-round players who can contribute quickly, rather than long-term projects who might be years away from rotation minutes. There are now stiff penalties that go beyond tax hikes for teams that exceed salary cap thresholds; clubs in the dreaded “second apron” face trade and free-agent signing limitations.

Ramasar said Indiana Pacers postseason hero and client Andrew Nembhard is an example of this system working well for all involved. Indiana used a 2022 second-round pick on the former Gonzaga guard, placing him on a four-year, $8 million rookie deal that meant he played on a tiny salary last year as a major postseason contributor. Ramasar said Nembhard performed at a “$10-20 million” value during that 2024 run to the Eastern Conference Finals, which led him to securing a three-year, $59 million extension before this year’s NBA Finals run.

“They can contribute to their rosters much quicker than a talented younger prospect,” Ramasar said. “You may be more inclined to draft an upperclassman that’s a plug-and-play [guy]. The idea of maintaining a championship roster, you need players that are on rookie deals to play at a higher level than their contract value.”

The changes in the NIL landscape are expected to create more opportunities for older prospects who have no choice but to enter the draft and otherwise may never have received consideration to be selected at all.

Former Brooklyn Nets assistant general manager turned ESPN commentator Bobby Marks said there will also be an uptick in two-way contracts compared to last year because of the older draft pool and teams having limited roster spots.

This is the first NBA Draft preceding a college basketball season in which players can be paid by schools directly after the House settlement was approved earlier this month. The lure of those earnings has led to players out of eligibility, such as Tennessee’s Zakai Zeigler, to sue to NCAA for the right to play another year.

Zeigler’s attempts to use the courtroom to stay on the college court have so far been unsuccessful; a federal judge earlier this month denied him a preliminary injunction that would have let him play for the Volunteers next season. But the 5-foot-9 guard—well below the typical height of an NBA player—is an example of the type of older prospect suddenly in the mix for a professional tryout.