(Mandatory Credit: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
After the Miami Heat extended qualifying offers to Dru Smith and Davion Mitchell and picked up Keshad Johnson’s guaranteed contract for 2025-26, their lone order of operations was awaiting Duncan Robinson’s ETO (early termination option) decision before free agency tips off on Monday.
Heading into the final year of a five-year, $90 million deal he signed ahead of 2021-22, Robinson had until Sunday to exercise his $19.9 million ETO, meaning he would become an unrestricted free agent.
It was always a possibility, and that’s what he did. However, could there still be a reunion for the 31-year-old sharpshooter? Don’t be surprised if that’s the case.
Heat can still bring Duncan Robinson back on team-friendly contract. Should they?
Only $9.9 million of Duncan’s $19.9 million salary was guaranteed through July 8, but Robinson did the Heat a huge favor by opting out, putting them roughly $14 million below the luxury tax and $19.4 million out from the first apron.
Thus, the Heat not only opened up their $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, but also more flexibility for sign-and-trades and the use of their three trade exceptions.
Team president Pat Riley was open about potentially ducking the tax to avoid repeater tax penalties. The luxury tax penalties will become more onerous in 2025-26, making it important to hit the reset button if you’re nowhere near contention, which the Heat aren’t.
That said, widespread speculation circulated that Miami is open to the idea of retaining Robinson, the greatest shooter in franchise history, on a team-friendly contract closer to his $9.9 million guarantee.
The Miami Heat are open to bringing Duncan Robinson back, and the sides are expected to discuss the parameters of that return.
— Five Reasons Sports 🏀🏈⚾️🏒⚽️ (@5ReasonsSports) June 29, 2025
Duncan Robinson is indeed becoming an unrestricted free agent, though a new 3-year deal to keep him in Miami is not out of the question. Not finalized, but an idea that has been floated.
— Tim Reynolds (@ByTimReynolds) June 29, 2025
Duncan Robinson could re-sign with the Heat to an annual salary closer to what his $9.9 million partial guarantee would’ve been.
It also opens up sign and trade possibilities since his new team could acquire him at a more palatable number than $19.9 million.
— Yossi Gozlan (@YossiGozlan) June 29, 2025
You could argue that it’s wise to move on from Robinson because of his ailing back. But there’s also a legitimate case for bringing him back at an inexpensive price.
At worst, he’s their best movement shooter, one of their best passers and advantage exploiters. He also has irreplaceable gravity. Last season, Robinson averaged 11.0 points on 43.7 percent shooting and 39.3 percent from 3-point range, and has shot a combined 39.9 percent from deep (7.3 3PA!!!) over his last six seasons.
You could make a cogent argument that you can’t maximize the Heat’s core without Robinson, even if he eats up 20-25 minutes that could be dispersed to your best young players.
While his consecutive back injuries could be troublesome in both the short- and long-term, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better option at an inexpensive price. There are players on this roster who have played their last Heat game, but do you think Robinson should be one of them?
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