(Photo via Sam Navarro-Imagn Images)

Following the season-long Jimmy Butler contract extension drama, the Miami Heat have yet another financial commitment decision on the horizon. Tyler Herro could be eligible for a three-year, near $150 million max extension as early as October 1st.

If the Heat or Herro wait until the 2026 offseason, that figure could increase to four years at around $207 million. The talented combo guard is in the midst of going into his third of a four-year deal that he signed in October 2022.

That first extension was for $130 million across those four years, set to earn $31 million for this upcoming 2025-26 season. If no new extension comes to agreement within the next year, he is set for $33 million in the final year of his original contract that keeps him on the Heat through the end of the 2026-27 campaign.

A lot of numbers to note here. Essentially Herro could see a $20 million annual salary increase with a new extension this fall or next offseason.

Herro emerged as a first-time NBA All-Star last season. He is coming off averages of 23.9 points, 5.5 assists, 5.2 rebounds and 0.9 steals on 47.2% shooting and 37.5% from 3-point range. The scoring, assists, rebounding and shooting efficiency numbers were all good for career highs.

Is banking on even more continued growth for Tyler Herro justified for a new max contract?

Outside of a disaster Heat season that dealt with Butler’s dilemma, a losing record and a first round elimination playoff sweep, Herro provided one of the only silver linings.

Not only did he finally develop into an All-Star, but he took home the NBA’s 3-point champion title at All-Star weekend.

He made it a point to alter his shot diet to feature increased 3-point shooting volume and higher quality rim attacks. That adjustment led to the most efficient offensive season of his career thus far. Herro attempted a career-high 8.7 attempts from deep on the year.

But the max extension eligibility still comes with question marks in his game. Will he continue to improve as a defender? Will he step up on the biggest stage in the NBA playoffs? Can he stay healthy?

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Herro needs to carry his improvements into the next season, but he also has room for growth in other areas to justify a max contract offer.

“I’m going to let my agent and the organization figure that out. Everyone knows I want to be here long term and I’m definitely excited to see what they have to say for the extension, see if they want me here as much as I want to be here.” – Tyler Herro on upcoming October contract extension talks, via Anthony Chiang.

Although availability has been an issue for him in recent years, he appeared in a career-best 77 games this past season after being deemed “fragile” by Pat Riley. And that reliability will especially need to continue no matter what the on-court development looks like in upcoming years.

Lastly, it comes to the point where the Heat, and perhaps Herro, will each need to question the state of the franchise as a whole. It’s always tough to invest financial resources when the team is stuck in mediocrity.

Luckily for Herro, Miami will have to fill the money somewhere on their payroll. And both sides have expressed a mutual interest in continuing a partnership longer term.