Thunder mailbag: Will Nikola Jokic, Nuggets be OKC's biggest threat in the West?

Amid a flurry of offseason moves, the Thunder has more or less maintained the status quo. When you’re the defending champs, that’s a good thing.

But as the rest of the West reloads, can the Thunder avoid complacency?

That’s the first question in today’s Thunder mailbag. Email me at jmussatto@oklahoman.com with questions for future mailbags.

Let’s get to it.

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@Annoyed44290089: While the rest of the West *cough Denver cough* gets so much better, OKC is content to run it back. Is that gonna bite them? How do they avoid complacency?

Houston should be much better, particularly as a playoff threat. Denver is better, but much better? San Antonio will be better. The Lakers, Clippers and Warriors? They’re old and getting older. Minnesota? They might have taken a slight step back after losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The Grizzlies? Meh.

I think we might be overrating the West given how terribly weak the East is.

I’ve liked Denver’s offseason, the Nuggets remain the Thunder’s biggest threat, but I don’t think the Thunder’s static offseason should be confused for contentedness.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is just now entering his prime. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are naturally going to improve. The Thunder has the MVP, two co-stars in Chet and J-Dub, a pack of pit bulls in Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace — all of whom are part of the deepest roster in the NBA.

Running it back isn’t going to bite them. It’s the only thing that makes sense.

Avoiding complacency? That’s a different conversation. Given how young the Thunder is, how indoctrinated the players are in Mark Daigneault’s “zero and zero” mentality, I’d be awfully surprised if complacency proves to be OKC’s downfall. We have to wait and see, though.

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@DustinJohnson21: What improved aspect of Chet’s game will be most key to OKC’s long-term success?

I think this could be a huge summer for Holmgren. To get his body right, to tighten his handle and to refine his jumper. Those are the three biggest things I’ll be watching for come next season.

If he can get more comfortable as an offensive initiator rather than being limited to a play finisher, look out. We saw flashes of that before he broke his hip.

Defensively, he’s already elite. One of the best rim protectors in the game.

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@austincharlesla.bsky.social: How many players on the current team would have started in 2016? How many would have gotten regular rotation minutes?

The Thunder’s starting lineup in 2016: Russell Westbrook, Andre Roberson, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Steven Adams.

If you could combine that team with this one, I would start …

PG: Russell Westbrook

SG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

SF: Jalen Williams

PF: Kevin Durant

C: Chet Holmgren

Four All-NBAers plus Chet ain’t bad.

My next five off the bench: Ibaka, Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein and … give me Aaron Wiggins for a scoring punch.

Adams was only 22 and not yet in his prime. And no disrespect to Roberson, but I already have two elite perimeter defenders in Dort and Caruso — both of whom can make open threes. Cason Wallace also deserves a mention, but you can’t play everybody.

So to answer your question, I think three current players would have started on that 2016 team, and I think seven current players would’ve cracked the top-10 of that rotation. Put more simply, I think Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka are the only players from that ‘16 team who could crack the top-10 of the ‘25 team.

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@paarfi.bsky.social: How’s Poku doing?

One day Thunder fans will move on from Aleksej Pokusevski. Alas, today is not that day.

Poku, you should know, also won a championship this season with Partizan Belgrade in his home country of Serbia. I regret to inform you, however, that he didn’t play a big role in it. He ranked 11th on the team in minutes and 10th in scoring.

He’s still only 23, though!

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@jgg830.bsky.social: Do you believe the offensive improvement needed to make this team a true juggernaut and rectify the shooting woes in the playoffs can be achieved by the current roster?

I totally understand the question, but this team just won 68 games, set a record for average margin of victory and became the second-youngest team ever to win an NBA title. I would say it’s already a juggernaut.

The 3-point shooting was definitely an issue. OKC shot 33.8% from deep in the playoffs. Not one Thunder starter shot north of 35% from three. Alex Caruso and Isaiah Joe both shot 41% off the bench (you’re surprised Joe shot that well, huh?).

More concerning than the lack of makes was the dearth of attempts. OKC attempted 29.4 3-pointers per game in the Finals compared to 38.8 per game in the regular season.

The Thunder’s offensive efficiency crashed when the ball got sticky. Good 3-point looks were hard to come by. Better ball movement will equal better looks, which will equal a better 3-point percentage.

There’s enough shooting on the roster. It’s more of a playstyle issue.

And yet it didn’t matter. The Thunder’s defense was that good.

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@thefley.bsky.social: With the modern game and increased mileage on players’ legs, do you think Mark’s approach to lineups and playing time has a dual purpose for gathering lineup data and reducing injury risk for longer postseason runs?

That certainly was the case with Alex Caruso. The veteran guard only has one gear, and Caruso said in the postseason that the Thunder did a good job of saving him from himself in the regular season so that he could be healthy for a full playoff run.

Caruso averaged 19.3 minutes in 54 regular-season games. He averaged 24.4 minutes in the playoffs, playing in all 23 playoff games.

Other than Caruso, I don’t think Mark Daigneault or the Thunder went out of their way to manage anyone else’s load. SGA and the starters did that themselves by routinely blowing out opponents.

Maybe we’ll see Daigneault be more intentional in how he limits guys’ minutes coming off a long playoff run, but the Thunder is still so young. Regardless, Daigneault is going to go deep into his bench and use a ton of different lineup combinations.

The Thunder is going to stop “exploring” the roster just because it won a championship. If anything, it’s going to double down, making sure it knows exactly what it has.

Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe’s work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Are Nikola Jokic, Nuggets biggest threat in the West to OKC Thunder?

Thunder mailbag: Will Nikola Jokic, Nuggets be OKC’s biggest threat in the West?

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