One key reason, among many, that Doc Rivers should be fired is the deplorable late-game offence the Milwaukee Bucks ran all season long. The Bucks ranked 28th in offensive rating in the regular season in “clutch time,” which the NBA defines as “the final five minutes of either the fourth quarter or overtime when the score is within five points.” Despite having a perennial MVP candidate in Giannis and an all-time closer in Damian Lillard—whose signature celebration literally symbolises his legacy of being elite in the clutch—the Bucks were woeful. I should acknowledge that, despite the horrible offence, Milwaukee did rank first in clutch-time defensive rating by a decent margin. The players and coaches deserve credit for that. But back to the point: why were they so bad offensively when the score was tight throughout the fourth quarter, and terrible at getting a quality look on the final offensive possession of their games?
Let’s talk about why they were so bad at final-play execution first. It makes sense that Giannis and Dame would have attempted most of the final shots this season. Now, most coaches would draw up a play that utilises the strengths of their best players to generate a good shot for the team. In other words, the stars may take the shot, but it isn’t a predetermined thing; it is based on a read following action. At a minimum, the goal is to generate a somewhat open look from a player attempting a shot they have proven they can make. For example, one of the few times the Bucks did execute well at the end of a game this season was in their first matchup with the Pistons. Without getting too far into the weeds, this play was really quite simple. There were two actions in the entire sequence, but the Bucks executed those actions well and made the defence sweat, generating an open corner three because of it:
However, examples like the one above were few and far between this season. Generally, Doc seemed to have with one golden requirement: give Dame or Giannis the ball and get the [expletive] out of the way. I mean, you tell me if I’m off on that:
Now look, I mostly dislike every one of these attempts because the defence didn’t have to do much, you know, defending (yes, even the one that went in, although at least there was some off-ball stuff happening there). But whatever, let’s posit that this is the quality of shot you’ll live with, wouldn’t you want to make sure the person shooting is… a good shooter!? I can at least understand if the only player who took these types of shots was Dame. But Giannis? Not for me. Some may disagree with that point, referencing Antetokounmpo’s improved mid-range numbers this season. He still shot a career-low from the free-throw line and has not been an efficient shooter across his career. Has he gotten better? Absolutely. I’m still not using that logic to justify him taking that shot in that moment. And even if Dame isn’t playing (which he wasn’t for a few of the above examples), you have dynamic shooters like AJ Green to utilise; KPJ has proven he is capable of pick-and-roll playmaking; Gary Trent made nine triples in a playoff game! But no, the shot you end up with is a Durant jumper over two guys from the worst shooter on the floor. Not good!
Now, I think it’s worth asking whose fault it is that Giannis takes these shots: his or Doc’s? To be honest, GA takes some… unintelligent shots, shall we say. But ultimately, it is the coach’s responsibility to make players execute their vision. Hypothetically speaking, let’s say that it’s Antetokounmpo saying it must be him taking the last shot. I highly doubt that would be the case, but let’s assume. Shouldn’t it be on the coach who was reportedly hired because of his ability to have “gravitas” with stars to fix it? The coach who, if you thought you could count on him for one (!) thing, would be able to convince star players to listen to him? Regardless of who is behind it, Rivers is paid all the money to drive this car, so take control and drive it! And if Doc does not have the bandwidth for Xs and Os, then he should swallow his pride and delegate end-of-game play designs to an assistant. For what it’s worth, I believe this is precisely what Rick Carlisle does; and we as Bucks fans know all too well how successful that strategy has been.
Doc has been asked a few times about Giannis’ shot selection at the end of games, and his only tepid criticism has been that he wanted the shot to go up as time expired. That’s really it. He said that following the Heat game I showed above, which was presumably why Antetokounmpo waited so long to get into an action in Game 5 against the Pacers. To my knowledge, he has never said anything like, “we could have gotten a better shot than that.” A large part of the criticism of Rivers in Philadelphia was that he is less of a coach and more of what you might call a “star enabler.” I assume he believes the key to winning is putting the ball in his best players’ hands and that’s it. Whatever decision the stars make is up to them, and everyone must live with the results. I’m sorry, but the game has evolved far past that being a viable strategy.
As for the rest of the time in the clutch that wasn’t at the very end of games, what I saw as the main issue was that opposing teams would increase their physicality, and Milwaukee couldn’t match. Personally, I had always felt like the Bucks generated offence more on immense talent than they did execution, which gets harder when the other team increases its level of focus. I hesitate to call the Bucks “soft” because that word often carries unintended connotations, but they were soft in an on-court sense. Here’s a theoretical example of what I’m talking about: Giannis goes to set a screen for Dame and his defender is “jamming” him, meaning they are getting into his legs and pushing Antetokounmpo higher and higher up the floor as he tries to stop and set the screen. Giannis doesn’t get low enough to win that positioning war. Thus, the screen is ineffective and way too high, and Lillard can’t get a good look. Here’s another example: Dame runs up to receive a dribble handoff (DHO) but doesn’t do his work early by creating body contact with his defender, who promptly blows up the DHO and steals the ball.
Zooming out, this lack of physicality also redounds back to coaching. Who tuned into the Rockets’ NBA Playoffs series against the Warriors? I mean, I was exhausted just watching Golden State try to score on that defence. The Rockets are a pack of bulldogs, man. They might struggle to score, but gosh darn, they give you nothing on the other end. Their attention to detail is phenomenal. Ime Udoka has clearly instilled a culture that says, “if you don’t play defence, you’ll be riding the bench.” For example, since he became the coach there, Udoka has had zero problems benching Jalen Green down the stretch of games if he wasn’t doing his job. Frankly, you can apply this thinking to all the best defensive teams. Yes, the Bucks don’t necessarily have the same personnel as the Rockets, but I am more referring to a culture of accountability that has clearly not been built. The coach is the headman for that, and for all of the nice things you could say about Doc, having accountability is certainly not one of them.
Whatever happens this offseason, one thing is clear: hiring a new head coach should be at the top of the agenda. And if past reporting is to be believed, please, (certain) owners and (certain) players, let Jon Horst hire his preferred coach this time. I beg you.