Sometimes I’m kind of glad German is my native tongue. For example, when I’m listening to German NBA podcasts and they say things I find so interesting that I want to share them among us Pounders. Case in point: My favorite NBA analyst these days is a guy called Torben Adelhardt, the co-host of the “Jeden Tag NBA” podcast. He’s not just a very knowledgeable observer of the game, he can explain things tremendously well – him also being a coach probably helps.
In his “Trend Analysis” episode published on Wednesday, he remarked that there have been seven teams this season who have a higher three-point attempt rate than the Boston Celtics had last season – higher than 47.1 %, that is. (The first-place Celtics are currently at 55.1 %, the seventh-placed Brookly Nets at 47.5%, per bk-ref, as all figures in this article.)
But that’s not the only reason why Torben talked about the three-point attempt rate. He talked about it because next to the pace, which he also referred to, the three-point attempt rate is one of the stats that solidifies earliest. In general, anything to do with playing style solidifies much earlier than things such as shooting percentages, he said.
Based on that, Torben identified seven teams who changed their playing style from last season, one of them being the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs last season had a pace of 101.1 last season, 3rd overall and 2.6 points above league average. They now are at 97.5, which is 26th overall and 2.4 points below league average – a five-point swing from last season.
The Spurs’ three-point attempt rate, meanwhile, has stayed roughly the same, although it’s been up tremendously over the past two games from 35.3 %, after the loss to OKC, to 41 % now (last season: 40.1 %). Victor Wembanyama and Keldon Johnson, who took a combined 34 threes over the past two games, had something to do with that. But since it’s doubtful those kinds of volumes will hold up, it’ll be interesting to follow the development of the Spurs’ three-point attempt rate.
Another change in the Spurs’ play style Torben noted was that Jeremy Sochan is now mainly used as the big man: “In four-out sets, he is lurking on the short corners, either cutting baseline, depending on where the ball is, or, when the ball is moved to the perimeter, he sets a so-called exit screen to prevent the defender from moving out to the three-point line. […] That’s how they create spacing with Sochan on the court, without him being the lead ball handler.”
To cut it short, most of what Torben said makes me believe (which he pointed out as well) that the Spurs should be a much better team once Davin Vassell is back. Devin wasn’t back eyt last night, but the Spurs still prevailed over a tired Timberwolves team on the second night of a back-to-back.
Takeaways
Early sophomore-season Victor Wembanyama still looks a lot like early rookie-season Victor Wembanyama. He’s taking too many ill-advised shots, and if he wants to win more games this season, he will have to apply his phenomenal capabilities in different ways. And the Spurs will have to run better plays for him, too. Inside the arc, we need to see less fadeaways and turnarounds – and a lot more downhill actions!
Jeremy Sochan has had a very encouraging start to what could turn out to be his breakout season. He has never been better defensively, staying in front of Anthony Edwards to force him into a mid-ranger (regardless of Ant making the shot) serves as a great case in point. No other Spurs can touch Sochan’s perimeter defense – and few are better battling in the paint. What’s more is that Sochan’s finding ways to not be a liability on offense, if only in the paint. His three-point attempts per game are down to a career-low so far. It’s hard to see him turning into a shooter at this stage.
Chris Paul at age 39 is still a very good point guard. He can handle, he can shoot, and – oh, boy! – can he pass. The number of perfectly timed, razor-sharp entry passes from the perimeter was staggering. There hasn’t been a Spur who could do this in quite a number of years – and not many, if any at all, who could do it in that frequency. Whenever Paul leaves the Spurs, he will be difficult to replace. Tre Jones can’t do this, nor can long-term hopeful Stephon Castle. (On a personal note, I’ve never been one of the Chris Paul haters, I’ve rather admired his rigorous professionalism, and it makes me happy to see the guy in Silver & Black.)
For the first time this season, we got to see the version of Keldon Johnson the Spurs need. He’ll never be much of a creator; never will be a disciplined defender. But he can be expected to drive hard to the basket and to let it fly from deep. That’s the two things you want him to do, and that’s pretty much it. He excelled at both last night. And he needs to perform like that more often. Not in the sense that he’s necessarily the highest scorer of the game, but in the sense that he’s a problem for opposing defenses.
The Spurs have a .500 record after six games, beating two teams that, on paper, were better than them. Let’s not get hasty, though. The Wolves were at a clear disadvantage last night, having had to travel from Minneapolis to San Antonio for the second night of a back-to-back.