Cooper Flagg has officially declared for the NBA Draft. The projected No. 1 overall pick announced on his social media Monday morning that he will officially be heading to the NBA. Some of us (me) saw that announcement and immediately opened tankathon to roll the dice a few times.
The Toronto Raptors ended the season with the 7th best draft odds in the NBA. That means they have a 31.9% chance of getting a top-4 pick in the draft, and a 7.5% chance of securing the No. 1 overall pick — otherwise known as Cooper Flagg.
It’s really up to chance at this point. We can pray to the basketball gods to have mercy on Canada, but it’s really four little ping pong balls that determine fate. Though the lottery only happens once, let’s spin the tankathon wheel 10 times to see where the Raptors end up:
Spin #1:
…
Spin #2:
…
Spin #3:
…
Spin #4:
Pick 1: Dallas Mavericks
Pick 2: Brooklyn Nets
Pick 3: Washington Wizards
Pick 4: San Antonio Spurs
…
Spin #5:
Pick 1: Dallas Mavericks
Pick 2: Charlotte Hornets
Pick 3: Washington Wizards
Pick 4: Utah Jazz
…
(This isn’t going well so far!!)
Spin #6:
Pick 1: Utah Jazz
Pick 2: New Orleans Pelicans
Pick 3: Philadelphia 76ers
Pick 4: Charlotte Hornets
…
Spin #7:
Pick 1: San Antonio Spurs
Pick 2: Toronto Raptors (FINALLY)
Pick 3: Portland Trail Blazers
Pick 4: Utah Jazz
Spin #8:
Pick 1: Charlotte Hornets
Pick 2: Washington Wizards
Pick 3: Utah Jazz
Pick 4: Portland Trail Blazers
…
Spin #9:
Pick 1: Utah Jazz
Pick 2: Toronto Raptors
Pick 3: Portland Trail Blazers
Pick 4: New Orleans Pelicans
Spin #10:
Pick 1: Brooklyn Nets
Pick 2: Philadelphia 76ers
Pick 3: Washington Wizards
Pick 4: San Antonio Spurs
…
So that was… disappointing. Out of 10 spins, the Raptors only hopped up into the top-4 twice, both at the second pick. They dropped to the No. 8 pick six times, the No. 9 pick once, and stayed on-par at No. 7 once. Hate that!
For fun, I reset the system and rolled another five times, why not? In those five rolls, the Raptors landed 7th, 8th, 7th, 1st (!!!!!!!!!), and 8th.
Then I reset it again. Five more rolls: 7th, 8th, 8th, 9th, 9th. Ouch.
This time I exited out of the page, opened a new window, and reset the system a few times before rolling five more times: 8th, 8th, 8th, 4th, 8th.
25 tankathon rolls total. The breakdown ended up being 14 No.8 picks, four No. 7 picks, three No. 9 picks, two No. 2 picks, one No.4 pick and most importantly ONE No. 1 pick. Surprisingly not a single No. 3, No. 5 or No. 6 pick in 25 rolls.
The takeaway? It only takes one shot to get the No. 1 pick, but also the Raptors are more likely to land in the 7-9 range. My other takeaway is that if Dallas somehow jumps up into the top picks after not only getting Paige Bueckers No. 1 overall in the WNBA draft but also after the incredibly stupid season they had… I am going to be big mad.
Do you think the Raptors could leap up into the top-picks? Have we given enough to the hoop gods to be rewarded for out patience? I guess we will see in just a few short weeks.
For fun, three more rolls: 7th, 3rd, 9th.