In a way, the NBA trade and free agency season reaches farther than it ever has. Once upon a time all the action would happen between the end of the NBA Draft and Summer League, leaving August and early September as a dead zone during which everybody in the league went on vacation. Now trades and signings come in dribbles and drabs all summer long. The major action, such as it is, still happens early, but you never know when the next transaction is coming down the pike.
That extra length belies the lack of actual impact that free agency holds in the modern NBA. Gone are the days when owners and GM’s would make emergency trips to the homes of superstars to convince them to ink rich new contracts. Most teams nowadays are lucky to get a third or fourth starter in free agency. Many don’t get that far, even. Scooping up Damian Lillard for a mid-level exception this summer after he cleared waivers was the biggest move the Portland Trail Blazers had made in half a decade and Lillard isn’t even certain to play this season.
What’s caused the decline in free agency? That’s the very question covered by today’s Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.
Dave,
We finally signed a free agent after a couple quiet summers! I love the Dame signing for us but it’s not exactly going to rock the league or even change our future I suspect. But since this is the only signing we’ve made since who knows when I’m going to celebrate. And we made a trade for Jrue Holiday too! Big summer.
We’re not alone in big summers being rare though. It feels like the huge basketball celebrations that once came each year in July are a thing of the past. What happened? Are there just not enough good players anymore? I know stars are staying with their own teams more often because of the CBA rules. There must be more though. Will we ever see a return to big fireworks in June and July?
Will
Ah yes, the days of the Woj Bomb with Shams dogging his heels and everybody else sniffing at the slightest rumor about who had lunch with whom and which real estate agent showed a house to whose spouse last week. It was kind of a frantic party, wasn’t it?
Lots of things have changed since the heyday of free agency. I think you’re right citing the new CBA as a major factor.
Superstars have always been rare. They were seldom direct targets of free agency. When they did come up for bid (LeBron James’ “decision”, for instance) the fireworks were huge. But the meat of free agency came via stars in the level just underneath. Players on the cusp of superstardom who might be able to make that leap, or at least fill a major role for a new team, were the big prizes. Every year it seemed one or two would get huge contracts accordingly.
Every team can afford to keep a true superstar under the current CBA. That’s never going to be a problem. Paying a second or third star has become a huge issue, though. When those deals get inked, teams start looking at the dreaded second apron and its draconian penalties. The same players who used to be celebrated as 7-7-7 jackpots in free agency under the old system are now the equivalent of second mortgages: something you might want to take on, but not without serious thought because you know you’re going to pay for it later.
This CBA was set up to encourage parity. It appears to be working too, at least if you count NBA Finals participants and champions. Back in the day, 4-5 teams had a real shot at rings and everybody else was jockeying for position behind them. Now 4-5 teams are presumed to be aiming for the Draft Lottery while everybody else is in the fray.
The Parity Era has had two dampening effects on free agency.
First, teams who feel like they’re in the fight are more apt to hold onto their stars in addition to superstars. They’re not going to let their second or third best players hit the market unless the fit is bad or something is wrong with those players. (See also: that second mortgage analogy above.) That thins out the free agent pool before it even forms.
Second, and just as critically, teams who are in contention tend to optimize their cap. Under current rules, that means operating above the salary cap line but below the second apron. If you’re below the cap you haven’t acquired or retained the maximum amount of talent possible. If you’re above the second second apron you haven’t kept the maximum amount of resources and flexibility for maintenance and further growth. In between the cap line and the second apron threshold is the NBA’s Cinderella zone.
When 5 teams were competing for a championship, dipping below the cap far enough to sign free agents was a viable strategy for the other 25 who weren’t in the running. 25 teams competing for a championship leaves just 5 to pursue that non-optimized, drop-below-the-cap gambit. And, as we just said, they’re clearing space to sign a lower class of player than they would have had access to a decade ago under the old system. Plus, they have to attract those free agents from a place of competitive disadvantage, as one of the losing-est teams in the league. At some point, it’s not worth it to try. It’s better to stay in the optimized zone and try to climb out via draft picks and trades.
This creates a chicken-and-egg effect with players and agents too. Looking ahead to the summer, they can forecast that very few teams will have enough cap space available to offer a meaningful contract. Great players probably wouldn’t want to join those teams anyway. There’s significant incentive for those players to sign contract extensions or force trades before hitting free agency. That leaves even fewer good free agents to choose from, which leaves even less reason for teams to drop below the cap to get them. The spiral continues.
As thing stand now, people on all sides of the table—teams/front offices, players, and agents—are all conspiring to keep players out of free agency because there’s no money, and very little free choice, left in it. Once upon a time NBA free agency was like a trip to Rodeo Drive in Beverley Hills. Now it’s more like a trip to Target…or after the first week, to Walmart. You can find something useful, hopefully even a bargain or two, but you’re not going to be picking up a life-changing purchase there.
Until the league swings back away from parity and onerous penalties for spending too much money, you’re going to see drafting and trading remain superior to free agency on the scale of team-building mechanisms. It’s no surprise that the Trail Blazers have focused their efforts there. The rest of the league is too. They’re all but forced to and that’s just the way it is.
Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!