PHOENIX, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 04: (L-R) Royce O’Neale #00 of the Phoenix Suns, Kevin Durant #35 and Devin Booker #1 stand on the floor during a timeout in the game /apl at Footprint Center on November 04, 2024 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns defeated the 76ers 118-116. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)
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The Phoenix Suns are in a tailspin.
After suffering one of their worst losses of the season on Tuesday night to the 7-27 Charlotte Hornets, Phoenix might instead have to ask internally whether Jimmy Butler can singlehandedly cover up so many holes with few assets to utilize?
Starting off the season at 8-1 with talks around becoming a true title contender, Phoenix has nosedived into a potential worst-case scenario spot one month before the NBA trade deadline.
Over the past two months, the Suns have been a well below-average basketball team. And the advanced metrics prove it, too.
112.5 offensive rating (14th)
116.6 defensive rating (26th)
-4.1 net rating (23rd)
Recently, Phoenix went to drastic lineups changes hoping for lighting in a bottle to spark their season. Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic were sent to the bench in favor of rookie first-round pick Ryan Dunn and Mason Plumlee.
Sure, anything can happen, but even if Butler arrived this team doesn’t feel like it will go on a deep postseason push.
Another year later for this group, another year older for their star duo of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Durant will be 37 years old next season. Incredibly enough, Devin Booker will be 29 at the start of the 2025-26 campaign. Throw in potentially Butler in for Beal, Phoenix gets five years older with a better on-court fit at 36 years old.
The time to win in Phoenix is supposed to be right now. Their window is at most the next two to three years, and their play as of late suggests it might already be quickly closing shut.
With the Suns trying their hardest to escape the Beal contract, which will require full sign off due to his full no-trade clause, they are ready and willing to commit to Butler a two-year, $112 million extension this offseason if acquired by the deadline.
Here’s the tough issue facing Phoenix, even with them trying to pull a proverbial rabbit out of their hat between now and February 6th: Beal’s market. There is none. No team is outright interested in taking on Beal for his production anymore.
Throw in what multiple NBA executives called “the worst contract in the NBA” recently to me, no team wants to take on that burden without significant compensation in return.
There could be a rebuilding franchise out there that is open to taking on the remaining salary of Beal through 2026-27, but would the former All-Star shooting guard sign off on destinations like the Hornets or Utah Jazz? Extremely doubtful, because Beal still desires a winning situation.
As Beal said earlier this week, he “holds all the cards” as it relates to a potential trade out of Phoenix. Try as hard as Phoenix may, Beal saying no to anything will result in a nightmare the rest of the way.
During the same 26-game stretch where Phoenix is 10 games under .500, the on-court fit with Beal alongside either Durant or Booker is quite simply horrific.
Beal/Booker/Durant lineup (100 minutes): 107.0 OffRtg, 126.2 DefRtg, -19.2 NetRtg
Booker/Durant lineup (253 minutes): 114.2 OffRtg, 116.3 DefRtg, -2.1 NetRtg
Booker/Beal lineup (270 minutes): 108.2 OffRtg, 126.1 DefRtg, -17.9 NetRtg
Durant/Beal lineup (296 minutes): 105.1 OffRtg, 121.5 DefRtg, -16.3 NetRtg
PHOENIX, ARIZONA – NOVEMBER 15: (L-R) Kevin Durant #35, Bradley Beal #3 and Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns watch from the bench during the second half of the NBA game against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Footprint Center on November 15, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns defeated the Timberwolves 133-115. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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Phoenix is trying to pull off a Hail Mary attempt to save face on what will go down as one of the worst “Big 3” attempts in modern NBA history. The numbers are damning towards Beal, proving from the beginning his fit was never the best alongside Durant and Booker.
The last star to throw their valuable assets towards was Beal, and the backfire amount is historical. Still to come, Washington has all the following draft capital on the way from Phoenix: 2025 2nd, 2026 unprotected pick swap, 2026 2nd, 2027 2nd, 2028 unprotected pick swap, 2028 2nd, 2030 unprotected pick swap, 2030 2nd.
An absolute disaster for the Suns, because now they can’t afford to bottom out unless they got some of their swap rights back from Washington. And why would the Wizards want to take back on Beal’s contract, especially at the foundational level of a rebuild attempt?
Circling all back around to Beal and the quandary Phoenix faces in moving him, what if they can’t pull off Butler by the February 6th trade deadline? If they are stuck with Beal next to Durant and Booker, say goodbye to any hopes for Phoenix this season of truly competing.
If this core remains together heading into the summer, it will be time for new owner Mat Ishbia to have a real moment of clarity. Will he try for another star who becomes available beforehand? Absolutely.
However, this next month deciding whether or not they acquire Butler will have a direct domino effect into the 2025 offseason. If Butler is not in Beal’s place, it should be the time to admit failure and bring back as much draft capital as possible.
The way to acquire draft capital and start a full-scale rebuild? Trading Durant and Booker.
This is the bridge Phoenix is now teetering dangerously close towards over the next calendar year. If their priority plan of acquiring Butler fails, who knows what comes next for this organization.
If the Suns’ spiral continues into depths they never expected, rumors will rampant around the futures of Durant and Booker. For Phoenix to get back their picks, Durant or Booker would need to go to the Houston Rockets, who now own their capital after they sent back the Brooklyn Nets’ own selections.
Again, this is just disastrous for the Suns to even have to fathom this as a realistic reality.
Losing five of their last six games, which feels like rock bottom with the on-court product lately, will Butler be the hero and save the Suns? If not, it’s time to ask whether Ishbia admits defeat on this aggressive attempt to win a championship immediately upon becoming owner.