Right before free agency began on June 30, ESPN’s Bobby Marks shared a quietly important update that sent chills across NBA front offices. According to Marks, the 2026-27 salary cap is currently projected to increase by 7% rather than the full 10% that it’s allowed to rise year-over-year.
According to Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic, “most everyone was assuming” that the cap would grow by the full 10% because of the money from the new national TV deals that begin this season. However, the ongoing turmoil with regional sports networks contributed to the smaller-than-expected projected cap increase, according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst.
“Teams had budgeted for another 10 percent rise, but now must change their projections downward for the luxury tax and aprons by roughly $5 million apiece,” John Hollinger of The Athletic wrote.
The Lakers may be uniquely positioned to take advantage of that.
Even after signing Luka Dončić to a three-year maximum contract extension that begins in 2026-27, the Lakers could have around $60 million in salary-cap space next offseason. They’ve been intent on preserving that flexibility this summer, too, as evidenced by their decision not to re-sign Dorian Finney-Smith.
In the best-case scenario, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Nikola Jokić would sign with the Lakers in 2027 to pair with Dončić long-term. But if Antetokounmpo and Jokić recommit to the Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets, respectively, the Lakers will have plenty of other ways to spend their cap space, even if it isn’t on another superstar free agent.
“We’ve been very intentional with keeping our optionality to make now moves if there’s good now moves to make or to have sort of our flexibility in the future,” President of Basketball Operations Rob Pelinka said Saturday at the press conference for Dončić‘s extension. “But I say all that, the optionality is there for us to use now if the right move comes its way. We want to make smart moves. But to be in a position of flexibility vs. being stuck is really promising for how we’re going to build this team moving forward.”
The Lakers need to look no further than the Brooklyn Nets, who took advantage of being one of the only teams with cap space this offseason. They acquired Terance Mann and the No. 22 pick in the 2025 NBA draft for “cash considerations,” which was only possible because they had enough cap space to absorb Mann’s contract without sending salary out. They also traded Cam Johnson to the Nuggets for Michael Porter Jr. and a fully unprotected 2032 first-round pick, which could be particularly valuable if Jokić is no longer in Denver by then.
There’s no guarantee that the Lakers will be the only team with significant cap space in 2026 or 2027 like the Nets were this offseason. In fact, the Washington Wizards currently have nearly $65 million in expiring salary coming off their books next summer between Khris Middleton and CJ McCollum alone. They figure to be a landing spot for salary dumps, particularly given where they are in their rebuild. But as more star players sign extensions — De’Aaron Fox was the latest to do so on Monday — fewer teams will have incentive to preserve cap space in 2026. The free-agent pool is quickly dwindling.
According to Marks, the Lakers are one of eight teams currently projected to have cap space next offseason. Of those eight, the Los Angeles Clippers are the only other ones that made the playoffs last year, and they aren’t even a lock to have cap space at all. The Wizards, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls and Utah Jazz are in various stages of their respective rebuilds, while the Portland Trail Blazers are somewhere in between that and playoff contention. Most of those teams won’t be appealing to older veterans in pursuit of win-now situations.
Playing alongside Dončić on one of the league’s marquee franchises, on the other hand, shouldn’t take much of a sales pitch. If Deandre Ayton has a bounce-back season as Dončić‘s new pick-and-roll partner, the Lakers might have their pick of the litter from the free-agent center pool moving forward. More players might be incentivized to sign short-term, prove-it deals to have Dončić help them resuscitate their careers.
Beyond their inherent advantages in free agency, the Lakers could also take advantage of teams that have to shed salary because of the smaller-than-expected cap increase. The Boston Celtics took a stick of dynamite to their roster this offseason thanks to the second apron, the repeater tax and a potentially record-setting luxury-tax bill. The Cleveland Cavaliers could find themselves in a similar boat next summer if they don’t go on a deep playoff run this year. And the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder are about to get far more expensive as well after signing all three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams to max extensions this offseason.
The Thunder could make for a particularly intriguing potential trade partner, assuming they’re willing to help out a team that could be a threat to them in the playoffs. They have team options on Isaiah Hartenstein ($28.5 million) and Lu Dort ($18.2 million) in 2026-27 that they could decline if they need more breathing room under the aprons, although that would be a waste of an asset. The Lakers could potentially absorb either one of those contracts while only sending draft compensation back. (And somehow, Hartenstein doesn’t even turn 28 until next May.)
While the smaller-than-expected cap increase would cut into the Lakers’ cap space as well, they have enough flexibility that it shouldn’t be a major issue either way. But for teams that were already projected to be toeing the line of the luxury-tax threshold or either of the aprons, that $5 million difference could motivate them to shed salary.
The Lakers should be open for business if (when?) that happens, as it could help them retool their supporting cast around Dončić and/or add to their draft war chest as well.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Salary Swish and salary-cap information via RealGM.