ESPN’s Tim MacMahon on the Rockets: “By all appearances and by what I’ve heard, they’re not going all-in on an extension for Kevin Durant.”
As they navigate various luxury-tax and apron thresholds under the NBA’s latest Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), the Houston Rockets are bracing for an expensive payroll in the 2027-28 season.
That future season is particularly tricky for the Rockets, since it’s likely to be the first year of a maximum-salaried contract extension for rising star Amen Thompson and potentially the final season of a two-year extension for aging superstar Kevin Durant.
But that two-year extension, if it comes, might not be for as much money as many around the league had anticipated. From Friday’s episode of ESPN’s The Hoop Collective podcast, Tim MacMahon said:
By all appearances and by what I’ve heard, they’re not going all-in on an extension for Kevin Durant. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. There have been rumblings of ‘Hey, KD isn’t going to push for the full max.’
I don’t know that the Rockets are going to put anything on the table that’s close to the max. I think the Rockets… it’s not ideal, but I don’t think they would panic if they go into the season with Kevin Durant just on the expiring deal that he’s on.
Even if the Rockets didn’t come to terms on a contract extension with Durant, they would still have Bird rights to retain the perennial All-Star entering 2026 free agency.
It’s worth noting, of course, that Durant is far from the only player that Houston is showing restraint with. The final two seasons of Dorian Finney-Smith’s new contract with the Rockets, starting with that aforementioned 2027-28 campaign, are non-guaranteed. Newly signed extensions with Steven Adams and Jabari Smith Jr. will both decline in annual value between 2026-27 and 2027-28.
Fred VanVleet signed a new contract this offseason for a maximum of two years, with the final year being 2026-27. It’s possible that by 2027-28, Reed Sheppard could be ready to take the reins at point guard, full-time.
So, there’s nothing unique to Durant that is making the Rockets hesitant. They’re simply being disciplined across the board as they prepare for a rising payroll in the years ahead.
And in the second-apron landscape of the NBA, it could serve them well. In Friday’s episode, ESPN’s Tim Bontemps explained why:
The Rockets have done an outstanding job of understanding the new economic environment that the league is in. Teams have to be much better about negotiating every dollar on deals.
As we’ve seen over the past couple years, deeper teams are probably going to have more success with where the league is headed. You have to mind your Ps and Qs when it comes to these contracts, and not be giving out extra money on deals to where you wind up in the second apron sooner, and you have all these difficult financial questions.
The Rockets have done a remarkable job of showing fiscal discipline and restraint all the way through. And I think if they can continue to do that, they’re going to have a real advantage over the competition, because we’ve seen other teams not do that. And I think it’s going to bite them later.
The Rockets have also shown discipline in acquiring and retaining numerous first-round draft assets in future years, which could help them fill out subsequent rosters with young role players who are on relatively inexpensive, rookie-scale contracts.
The good news for Houston is that by the 2028-29 season, which is when Durant will be 40 years old, the financial pressures should ease some. Historical patterns would suggest that he’s likely to either retire or be on a downward career trajectory by that time, which would lead to the future Hall of Famer either coming off Houston’s salary books entirely or playing at a much-reduced rate.
And if Durant somehow defies the usual aging curve and still produces at an All-Star level at 40 years old (similar to LeBron James today with the Los Angeles Lakers), that’s a good problem to have — and one the Rockets are happy to worry about in 2028, should it occur.
For now, they’re doing their financial planning based on more realistic scenarios. That requires being disciplined everywhere, even with Durant.