We are officially in the dog days of the summer.
Thank you as always for sending your questions in and I hope your summer was fantastic. Let’s get right to it.
Questions have been edited for style, length and clarity.
Are the Spurs looking at another bottom-five year or fighting for the Play-In? — Geraud G.
If we’re evaluating San Antonio’s offseason against the rest of the Western Conference in a vacuum, I’m not sure it moves the needle enough to get them into Play-In conversations.
The Spurs would have to double their win total from last season to even consider themselves in the mix and hope that teams like the Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings, or even Houston Rockets would slip. That’s quite the ask for a group that added an aging Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes to their youthful core, even with the budding stardom of Victor Wembanyama.
San Antonio is building for the future with Wembanyama serving as the floor and ceiling of its rebuild. Every move made should be done with him in mind, and the Spurs’ success will be dictated by his development.
“We want to build something that’s sustainable,” general manager Brian Wright said on draft night. “You (have) to build it brick by brick and we hope to do that. But all the decisions that we’ve made up until this point have been under that premise and we’ll keep going with that.”
We saw Wembanyama’s emotional reaction to losing to Team USA in the gold medal game a few weeks ago. The passion, pain and determination were apparent, especially following a bright tournament for the 20-year-old. His wanting to speed things up would be understandable.
But there’s no rush. Wembanyama understands the long game and the front office has flexibility. Next summer, San Antonio could have up to four first-round picks in a 2025 draft class that has prospects like Cooper Flagg, V.J. Edgecombe, Nolan Traoré and Hugo González to name a few. Rookie guard Stephon Castle did well in summer league and has the perfect mentors in Paul and Gregg Popovich to guide him. Things are happening in San Antonio, enjoy the process.
Everything the Spurs do now will have to revolve around Victor Wembanyama. (Jerome Miron / USA Today)
Who do you think had the best offseason in the Southwest? — Reagan P.
The legend David Aldridge did a thorough offseason breakdown of all 30 teams earlier this month and it’s pretty close between the Dallas Mavericks, Spurs and New Orleans Pelicans — all relative to where each of those organizations are timeline-wise. But I would probably pick Dallas.
Coming off an impressive NBA Finals run, the Mavericks could have run it back and opted for another year of cohesion and growth. But if you’re standing pat, you’re already behind. Dallas (50 wins) finished the season just a game ahead of eighth-placed New Orleans, a reminder of how fine the margins are in the West.
The Mavericks needed to become a more efficient outside shooting team, which correlates to their half-court success. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Celtics had the NBA’s most lethal half-court offense, scoring 123.2 points per possession. The Mavericks were eighth, clocking in at 118.3. Both teams led the league in 3-point attempts during the regular season but the Mavericks were a middle-of-the-pack unit in efficiency. So what do you do? Well, adding Klay Thompson (duh), Quentin Grimes (career 37.1 percent shooter), Spencer Dinwiddie (38.9 percent, 3.4 attempts per) and Naji Marshall (38.7 percent) is a pretty good start.
New Orleans and San Antonio did well this offseason, but the Mavericks put themselves in the best position to win.
Do you think we’ll get any current Southwest Division players on the 2028 Olympics squad? Thanks for all the great content! — Mike A.
This is a good question. Let’s go down the list.
Mavericks — I could see Kyrie Irving going the LeBron James/Kobe Bryant elder statesman route and leading Team USA as a 36-year-old. Dereck Lively II is another, too, depending on how his development pans out. Team USA always needs athleticism and size in the middle.
Rockets — Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson have all had experience with the national select team, scrimmaging against the senior team. It depends on what type of roster the coaching staff is assembling. Thompson and Smith could fill specific roles as physical, switchable defenders but we’re talking about a 12-man team, they would have to take significant jumps between now and then. But Green is the dark horse here. Let’s say he takes “the leap” in Year 4, similar to Anthony Edwards. If he’s averaging close to 26-6-5 in Year 8, I think he gets a look (or at least the first wave).
Spurs — If Team USA needs a 3-point specialist, Devin Vassell is at your service. Don’t overthink it. Castle probably won’t get in by 2028, but 2032 isn’t out of the question.
Grizzlies — Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. should be locks or whatever the next tier under it is.
Pelicans — Zion Williamson, of course, but I would think long and hard about Herb Jones, too. You need that physical, two-way versatility, especially at the Olympics.
Do you expect Ime Udoka to play Amen Thompson more as a wing or as a point guard? — B.B.
As a rookie, Thompson spent five percent of his time playing as a traditional point guard, slotting responsibilities between shooting guard (52 percent, per Cleaning the Glass) and small forward (42 percent). The consensus from the coaching staff is that Thompson is a basketball player first, rather than having him shoehorned into a hole. I think Udoka will stick to that plan, especially given the presence of Reed Sheppard now. Think of Thompson as a ballhandling wing who can be either a primary or secondary creator.
The over/under on the Rockets is 43.5. I’m leaning heavily towards taking the over. What’s your read on win total for year? — Neal P.
I have Houston at 45 wins for next season, so just over their Vegas outlook. Their final two months of the season are brutal, but Alperen Şengün stays healthy and establishes himself as a star, Green adds another layer to his game in a “prove it” year and Sheppard’s floor spacing helps a below-average Rockets shooting group. Houston is one of the rare teams that didn’t add in free agency — unless you consider Steven Adams — and has enough young talent that natural growth should lead to more wins.
Victor Wembanyama’s lack of an interior game or physicality (inside the paint) at over 7 feet tall is concerning (even at 20 years old). Is my criticism fair? — Anthony T.
No, not really.
We’re still talking about a 20-year-old who was barely eclipsing the 200-pound mark as a rookie (Wemby gave an interview this month and said he’s closer to 220 now.) It’s going to take him time to grow into his body as he continues to work with the Spurs strength and conditioning program.
He might not be the physical presence you’re asking about right now, but there’s no question that he’s a rim protector — and one of the league’s best. Wembanyama averaged 5.6 blocks per game in the final month of the season. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything like that in the modern era from a rookie. I was ridiculed once for suggesting there’s a future where Wembanyama blocks over six shots per night — I’m still on that train. San Antonio’s defense is nearly nine points better with Wembanyama on the floor and if you’re an eye-test person, the viral clips of players actively changing their minds around the rim are enough evidence.
JA AND ZACH EDEY IN THE LAB 🔥 (h/t @EricTweetsNBA)
— Overtime (@overtime) August 21, 2024
How much does Zach Edey affect the outcome of this Grizzlies season (and by extension that of the division/conference)? — Elliott D.
I was a bit too critical of Edey during the draft period, but I saw enough from summer league to believe he’ll be a serviceable player for head coach Taylor Jenkins.
With his size and screening IQ alone, he should be able to make an instant impact on the guards playing with him, especially Morant. We’ve seen the high-flying guard put his body at risk on multiple occasions, attempting difficult shots. Edey’s ability to create space and driving angles should make things easier on Morant and Desmond Bane, and his touch around the rim gives them an outlet.
His frame has the potential to change the geometry of matchups, especially at the rim. And I can envision Edey slotting alongside Jackson in the frontcourt in the future, given the latter’s struggles adapting to playing full-time center last year. Edey moves his feet better than I anticipated and his motor is solid.
Memphis still has a lot of work to do to climb back up the standings, but Edey will make his presence felt as a rookie. If I had one major question, it’s how Jenkins plans to utilize a healthy Brandon Clarke and Santi Aldama in conjunction with Edey, given how all three provide different things in the middle.
How would you personally rank the teams in the division ahead of the season? — Jordan E.
New Orleans (neck and neck with Dallas, but I’ll give them a slight edge)
Dallas
Houston
Memphis
San Antonio
(Top photo: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)