The Dallas Mavericks have been in the NBA Draft Lottery 16 times in their franchise history and the results are listed below:
1985-1989:
(All lottery teams had even odds to receive the number 1 overall pick)
1986: 3rd-worst record, seven lottery teams, picked 7th
1989: 8th-worst record, nine lottery teams, picked 8th
1990-present:
Weighted Draft Odds:
1990: 8th-worst record, 6.06% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 9th
1991: 6th-worst record, 9.09% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 6th
1992: 3rd-worst record, 13.64% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 4th
1993: worst record, 16.67% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 4th
1994: worst record, 25% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 2nd
1995: 12th-worst record, 0.8% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 12th
1996: 6th-worst record, 12.82% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 6th
1998: 6th-worst record, 9.2% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 6th
2000: 12th-worst record, 0.6% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 12th
2013: 13th-worst record: 0.6% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 13th
2017: 9th-worst record, 1.7% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 9th
2018: 3rd-worst record, 13.8% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 5th
2019: 9th-worst record, 6% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 10th
2023: 10th-worst record, 3% to receive No. 1 pick, picked 10th
16 times, the Dallas Mavericks have entered the NBA Draft Lottery and 16 times they have either stayed the exact same position or fallen in the draft. Tyler Edsel and I decided to plug the chances of the Dallas Mavericks never receiving the No. 1 pick into ChatGPT (so for example, 1994’s 25% odds to receive the No. 1 pick was entered as 75% to not receive the No. 1 pick) and it came out to 21.05%. That means in 78.95% of simulations, Dallas received the No. 1 pick.
Going one step further, the odds of NEVER moving up at all in 16 draft lotteries came out to just 0.8%. The Dallas Mavericks’ chance to receive the No. 1 pick this year? 1.8%. Their odds to move into the top 4? 8.5%.
Now, I’m not an idiot. I know statistics don’t work like that. Just because something hasn’t happened in the past doesn’t mean it’s more likely to happen in the future. If you flip a coin and it comes up ‘tails’ six times in a row, it’s still 50/50 on that seventh toss.
But damn it, haven’t we earned something, basketball gods? You took our franchise superstar. You injured basically our entire roster after the trade happened as punishment for that trade, and our future looks the bleakest it has in about a decade. We deserve this pick. No team’s fanbase in history has ever suffered like we have this season. From the NBA Finals to losing our best player to missing the playoffs in less than 10 months, you’ve hurt us enough.
We’ve learned our lesson. We’ve paid whatever debt you think we owe to the basketball gods. Please, just this once, let us have something we can enjoy. Something Nico Harrison and Patrick Dumont can’t take from us.
So when the draft lottery takes place (Monday, 7 p.m. EST), give us the No. 1 pick. Let us have Cooper Flagg so we can finally start to move on from the travesty that was the Luka Dončić trade. If it truly is the start of a new era in Dallas, please, basketball gods, give us a face for that era. No fanbase deserves a chance at redemption more than Dallas Mavericks fans do right now.
To quote the late great John Lewis:
If not us, then who? If not now, then when?