$1,000,000,000

$2,000,000,000

Free agency
Extension

For die-hard NBA fans, this past free agency may have seemed duller than ever. Once the spiciest time of the year, producing iconic moments such as LeBron James’ The Decision, that unpredictability now seems gone. Even with a 10 percent salary-cap spike tied to the league’s new TV deals, no 2025 free agent was worthy of a max salary. The Timberwolves’ perennial sixth man, Naz Reid, will likely end up as the player who secured the most guaranteed money from a new contract.

But that doesn’t mean NBA teams aren’t spending on stars. They’re just making sure those players don’t reach free agency. So far, more than 62 percent of the guaranteed money added to teams’ books this offseason has gone to contract extensions, leaving free-agency dollars as an afterthought for many clubs. Creating cap space for new signings – once a goal for many teams – is no longer a priority, unless it’s to take on bad contracts in exchange for future draft picks (see: Nets).

Looking at the largest contracts signed this offseason, the trend is clear. The Top 9 consist exclusively of players who signed extensions with the teams with which they finished the 2024–25 season. The nearly $764 million Oklahoma City will pay its three main stars from last season’s championship team accounts for more than half of the guaranteed money that all 30 teams combined will give to the 2025 free-agent class.

Among players who had the option to switch teams, only Reid and Kyrie Irving – both re-signing – managed to crack the top 12 largest contracts. And just one player, Myles Turner, actually changed teams on a deal worth more than $100 million guaranteed.

Guaranteed money

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Chet Holmgren

Jalen Williams

Paolo Banchero

De’Aaron Fox

Jaren Jackson Jr

Luka Doncic

Mikal Bridges

Devin Booker

Naz Reid

Jabari Smith

Kyrie Irving

That doesn’t look like a fluke. If the 2025 free-agent underwhelmed, 2026 may not be much different. According to our HoopsHype ranking, which factors in talent and age, Trae Young is currently the top 2026 free agent. No disrespect to one of the league’s most exciting offensive talents, but he doesn’t profile as the kind of franchise-changer teams once targeted in free agency. And he could, of course, still sign a contract extension before hitting the market.

In that case, Kevin Durant would take Young’s top spot. But since KD is reportedly on track to sign an extension with the Rockets, we could come full circle. Sixteen years after The Decision, LeBron James might once again be the most coveted free agent – and the biggest story – in July 2026. Extensions may have reshaped the market, but some things apparently never change.