(Mandatory Credit: Issac Baldizon/Getty Images)
There’s no sugarcoating it: The Miami Heat have been mediocre each of the last three seasons.
In fact, with the exception of one historically great playoff run in 2023 that nobody predicted nor could’ve predicted, they’ve been a smidge above .500 (127-119) in the regular season and just 1-8 in the postseason. Yikes!
Not to mention, one of those postseason exits was in historical fashion … in a humiliating way!
The franchise had a tumultuous 2024-25 season, going 37-45, their worst record since the first year without the Big 3 in 2014-15 — when it also went 37-45. Now, they are looking to rebound in their first full season without Jimmy Butler since 2018-19.
While they had a reasonably productive offseason in a weakened Eastern Conference — where the Celtics and Pacers will be without their two best players — ESPN is predicting much of the same for Miami.
ESPN predicts Heat finish as play-in team for fourth-straight year:
One month out from training camp, ESPN’s NBA staff cobbled together their projections for the upcoming season, including their award picks plus their standings predictions.
Spoiler alert: They expect little improvement from the Heat, who they have finishing 39-43 as the No. 9 seed in the East.
“If the landscape of the East has been altered entering this season, it’s largely due to the injuries and departures of stars,” ESPN’s Jamal Collier wrote. “The Heat won the East finals two years ago, but after trading Jimmy Butler III, it’s unclear if they can defy expectations once again. … The teams in this group all enter the season with major question marks that put them below the elite teams in this conference.”
ESPN has the Heat finishing below the Milwaukee Bucks, Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers — while finishing with as many wins as the Haliburton-less Pacers.
.@espn predicts the Miami Heat will finish 39-43 and be a play-in team for the fourth-straight season.
“The Heat won the East finals two years ago, but after trading Jimmy Butler III, it’s unclear if they can defy expectations once again. … The teams in this group all enter… pic.twitter.com/p4RYdskPtt
— Hot Hot Hoops (@hothothoops) August 27, 2025
Depending on where you looked, sportsbooks opened the Heat’s win total at either 36.5 or 37.5. The market has since moved to either 38.5 or 39.5. Nevertheless, the jury is out on much improvement heading into 2025-26.
Miami acquired Norman Powell in early July, in addition to Simone Fontecchio (Duncan Robinson sign-and-trade) and rookie Kasparas Jakucionis. I think you can argue the Heat have improved. I think you can also argue that they’ll surpass 40 wins and be a top-8 seed.
But hey, we’re all optimistic (to some degree) at this time of the year!
Conversely, you can argue that they’re stuck in quicksand, despite the (slight?) transition of going young. You can argue they’re still as mediocre as they were four months ago.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Miami was a tirefire post-deadline. But the one saving grace is that every team starts 0-1 and it has the ingredients of being slightly more pesky. But wins aren’t rewarded to the team that’s the most pesky, even they’ve drifted away from that.
They’re rewarded to teams that scores the most points, and Miami’s been a bottom-third offense each of the last three seasons. Score points, please!
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