We’re finally here. The Draft Lottery has arrived. Starting at 7:00 p.m. ET Monday night on ESPN, Brooklyn Nets fans at home and at work, from the corner of Flatbush and Atlantic to the far reaches of China, India and the Philippines, will be tuned in to learn where their team will pick at the top of a generational draft. For a little less than a half hour, they’ll be clutching their favorite piece of team memorabilia in hopes of bringing good luck to Brooklyn. Some no doubt will pray.

So what can we expect, other than big announcement? How does this thing work? The Nets, as everyone should know by now, have a nine percent chance at getting the overall No. 1 and Cooper Flagg. On the other hand, their odds at getting the No. 10 is 0.2%. If you believe that a top four pick on June 25 guarantees them a successful outcome, that number is 37.2% but the most likely pick for the team with the sixth worst record is seventh, at 29.7%.

What about about the process … the ping pong balls, the secret room? The NBA has provided the most detailed explainer on its official website. It is lengthy but it covers all the bases.

The 40th annual NBA Draft Lottery will determine the order of selection for the first 14 picks of the 2025 NBA Draft. Drawings will be conducted to determine the first four picks in the NBA Draft. The remainder of the “lottery teams” will select in positions five through 14 in inverse order of their 2024-25 regular-season records.

The actual lottery procedure will take place in a separate room just before ESPN’s national broadcast. Select media, NBA officials and representatives of the participating teams and the accounting firm Ernst & Young will be in attendance for the drawings.

Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations will be assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams. The lottery machine is manufactured by the Smart Play Company, a leading manufacturer of state lottery machines throughout the United States. Smart Play also weighs, measures and certifies the ping-pong balls before the drawing.

The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.

If the same team comes up more than once, the result is discarded and another four-ball combination is selected. Also, if the one unassigned combination is drawn, the result is discarded and the balls are drawn again. The length of time the balls are mixed is monitored by a timekeeper who faces away from the machine and signals the machine operator after the appropriate amount of time has elapsed.

A representative from Ernst & Young oversees the entire lottery process and stuffs and seals the envelopes before bringing them to the studio for the broadcast. The announcement of the lottery results will be made by NBA Deputy Commissioner and Chief Operating Officer Mark Tatum. A second representative from each participating team will be seated on stage. Neither the Deputy Commissioner nor the team representatives on stage will be informed of the lottery results before the envelopes are opened. The team whose logo is in the last envelope opened will have the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.

We also know there will be an excruciating commercial before the final four teams, including the winner of the Flagg sweepstakes, are identified. We know as well that Jordi Fernandez will be sitting on the dias awaiting the result. We don’t yet know who will be the room with the ping pong ball machines.

As for Nets history in the lottery, it’s mixed as Erik Slater wrote this week:

They have participated in the draft lottery 12 times. In these 12 draws, they have maintained their pre-lottery rankings seven times, moved up three times, and dropped three times.

In their last draft lottery in 2010, they had the highest lottery odds but ended up with the third pick, missing out on John Wall and selecting Derrick Favors. Their most significant jump came in 2000, when they jumped from seventh to first, selecting Kenyon Martin. In 1987, they also had the highest lottery odds and got the first pick, selecting Derrick Coleman.

We made our predictions in our Off-Season Reporters Roundtable. Being optimistic, all five of us predicted picks somewhere in the top three.

Draft Sleeper of the Week

He’s no sleeper of course. Cooper Flagg is seen as the generational player in the generational draft. And since we are trying to paint an optimistic picture of what could happen Monday, let’s take a look at what the Nets could be getting.

His numbers at Duke were eye-opening, despite the Blue Devils’ loss to Houston’s Cougars in the Final Four: 19.2 points a game on shooting splits of 48/39/84 plus 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks. Indeed, it’s his defense that scouts most rave about.

As ESPN draftniks Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo wrote last week, it wasn’t just that he played well, but that he exceeded all expectations.

Flagg had a spectacular season, improbably exceeding every expectation placed on him in the preseason, creating zero questions around whom the No. 1 pick will be on draft night. Just the fourth freshman to win the Wooden Award as the most outstanding player in college basketball, Flagg brought exceptional competitiveness and defensive versatility while impacting the game in every facet. He made jumpers from all over the floor, shouldered significant shot-creation responsibility and made everyone around him better with his passing and unselfishness.

He’s also the youngest player in the Draft, three days younger than Noa Essengue of France.

If you’re wondering what he might look like in an NBA game, there is video. Flagg, at age 17, was the youngest and best player on Team Select last July. Facing off against Team USA’s superstars in scrimmages prior to the Olympics, the then 17-year-old dominated.

What would he mean for the Nets or any other team in the Lottery? In addition to what he can bring on the court, Flagg has star power. It’d be a waste for all that star power to be seen in Salt Lake City, Washington, D.C. or Charlotte, N.C. He was born to play in New York, New York. Just sayin’.

Final Note

We’ve done enough this week on the Draft Lottery and the Nets summer in general. So now we wait to see how the ping pong balls fall. Two things to note: It’s hard to over emphasize how big of a deal this one night will be in franchise history AND where they pick won’t be as important as who they pick and we’re a long, long way from knowing just how well we did Monday.

As our ProfessorB noted Saturday:

Most 3rd picks do not become All-Stars. Most 2nd picks do not become All-Stars. About two-thirds of 1st picks become All-Stars at some point in their career.

So no matter what happens, there’s plenty of rebuild left.