Football season may have just started, but the NBA is right around the corner. The first NBA preseason game happens on Oct. 2, and the 2025-26 regular season officially opens up on Oct. 21 when the Houston Rockets visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on ring night.
It feels like rosters around the league are pretty much set at this point outside of the lingering Jonathan Kuminga situation for the Golden State Warriors, and the Sacramento Kings’ reported pursuit of both Kuminga and free agent guard Russell Westbrook. The league pecking order is taking shape with the Thunder leading the way as they try to become the first team to win back-to-back NBA championships since the 2017-2018 Golden State Warriors with Kevin Durant.
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It’s time to start rolling out our season predictions, starting with the 16 teams that will make the 2026 NBA Playoffs — eight from the East, and eight from the West. Here’s how we see the playoff picture shaping up at the conclusion of the regular season.
Western Conference locks
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Denver Nuggets
3. Houston Rockets
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Thunder are the best team in the NBA, and should be a heavy favorite to repeat as champions. At the same time, OKC looked a lot shakier in the 2025 playoffs than they did in the regular season, and that should give the three teams behind them confidence that they can knock them off with a few breaks going their way. I love what the Nuggets did this offseason by upgrading big time on the wing with Cameron Johnson replacing Michael Porter Jr. Denver also fortified its rotation with Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas — meaning they’re no longer reliant on young players taking a leap like they were the last two years. The Rockets are really good and really deep. Alperen Sengun could emerge as an MVP candidate this year after a spectacular Eurobasket run for Turkey, Amen Thompson is primed for more improvement following his breakout second season, and oh yeah, Kevin Durant just replaced Jalen Green in the rotation.
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I might be going out on a limb to call the Wolves a lock, but I think they deserve it after back-to-back Western Conference Finals runs. Minnesota’s defense is one of the most reliable units to project going into the year with Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels both among the league’s best defenders. Minnesota has to replace Nickeil Alexander-Walker with younger players, and it’s always possible Mike Conley Jr. could fall off a cliff as he enters his age-38 season. Still, Anthony Edwards is good enough to carry the offense with his improved three-point shooting and unrelenting driving, and that plus an elite defense and a fantastic coach makes the Wolves a lock for the playoffs in my eyes.
Eastern Conference locks
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. New York Knicks
3. Orlando Magic
The East is wide open thanks to Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles tears, but there’s no doubt about the top-2 teams in the conference entering the season. If someone other than the Cleveland Cavaliers or New York Knicks represents the East in the 2026 NBA Finals, it’s going to count as a massive surprise. Cleveland brings back all its major pieces from a 64-win team last year, while the Knicks improved their bench by adding Guerschon Yabusele and Jordan Clarkson to one of the league’s most talented starting units. My final lock here is the Orlando Magic, who made the playoffs last year despite long injuries to their three best players (Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs) and the worst shooting roster in recent memory. The Magic traded four first-round picks for Desmond Bane, one of the league’s best shooters, and also someone who won’t compromise their elite defense. I think the Magic are going to be very, very good if Paolo and Franz can finally figure out how to make each other better. It’s hard to image a scenario where Orlando misses the playoffs.
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Western Conference likely playoff teams
5. Los Angeles Lakers
6. Los Angeles Clippers
With the massive caveat that Kawhi Leonard’s contract could potentially get voided for salary cap circumvention, both of the Los Angeles teams feel like locks for the playoffs if the rosters stay as is. The Lakers get a full season of Luka Doncic, who is looking as slim as ever in the ramp up to the season. Doncic should be one of the five best players in the world this year, and if that happens, the Lakers can survive some age-related decline from LeBron James, who turns 41 years old in Dec. Factor in Austin Reaves playing for a new contract, an upgrade at center in Deandre Ayton, and enough depth pieces (Jake LaRavia and Marcus Smart joined in free agency), and the Lakers should be okay as long as Luka stays healthy. The Clippers will have the reckon with the Leonard situation until the NBA concludes its investigation, but the roster is really strong. Leonard and James Harden can still win you a lot of games even in their advanced age, Ivicia Zubac is quietly one of the NBA’s best centers, and I think the defense should remain very good (it finished No. 3 last year) even as offense-first players John Collins and Bradley Beal join the rotation. Unless Harden falls off a cliff or Leonard gets exiled, the Clippers feel like a safe playoff team.
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Eastern Conference likely playoff teams
4. Detroit Pistons
5. Atlanta Hawks
6. Milwaukee Bucks
I want to believe the Pistons are primed for a sustained run of playoff berths with real upward mobility. Cade Cunningham officially stamped himself as an All-NBA player last season as he thrived with better spacing. Detroit still has a lot of other highly-draft young players — Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, Jalen Duren, and Ron Holland — who could each level up this season. I didn’t love the Pistons offseason: they lost Malik Beasley (for now), Tim Hardaway Jr., and Dennis Schroder and replaced them with Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson. Still, I think the Pistons are probably a playoff team for the foreseeable future. The Hawks are fascinating after a fantastic offseason that netted them Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Luke Kennard, and the Pelicans’ 2026 unprotected first round pick. With Jalen Johnson coming back from injury and Zaccharie Risacher hopefully improving in his second season, this is potentially the most explosive Hawks team of the Trae Young era … if everything goes right. The Bucks are just depressing, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player in the conference, and that alone probably means a playoff berth in a depleted East.
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Western Conference bubble teams
7. San Antonio Spurs
8. Golden State Warriors
Victor Wembanyama is ready for a playoff run, and the Spurs finally got him a supporting cast that should be able to help get him get there. Wembanyama feels like a top-10 player in the league as he enters his third NBA season, and who knows how high he can climb from there. Dylan Harper should have some role as a rookie as the No. 2 overall pick, and I believe fellow lotto pick Carter Bryant can be an impact defender as a rookie (it’s possible his lack of offense will keep him off the floor). De’Aaron Fox has a ton of pressure on his shoulders after signing a new max contract. Fox and Wembanyama only played five games together last year. If Fox looks like the best version of himself, the Spurs have the pieces to reach the postseason. I gave the Warriors the last playoff spot over the Trail Blazers. Golden State’s roster is still up in the air, but the foundation of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green is good enough to win them a lot of games. Butler and Curry looked awesome together last season, though their durability is a legitimate concern in their mid- and late-30s. I assume Al Horford will be on this roster, and I’m not too concerned with Kuminga either way. I love Portland’s defensive potential this year, but the Warriors will be much better offensively, and that’s enough to get them a playoff spot.
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Eastern Conference bubble teams
7. Miami Heat
8. Philadelphia 76ers
The Heat could absolutely finish higher than No. 7 this year. Bam Adebayo is due for a bounceback season after a bit of regression last year, and Tyler Herro has proven that he can carry an offense as its lead scorer. I like having two explosive wings around them in Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins, and there’s some nice lineup flexibility here to go big with Kel’el Ware or small with Davion Mitchell to round out the closing lineup. I’ll be honest: I have no idea what to do with the Philadelphia 76ers this year. It all comes down to Joel Embiid’s health, and that’s a scary proposition. Paul George getting healthy and right would also be a big boost. There’s enough young talent here to carry the team for stretches — a full season of Jared McCain will be an awesome watch, rookie VJ Edgecombe can make plays defensively and in transition from the jump, and Tyrese Maxey should be in for an All-Star season. I was tempted to go with the Bulls or Raptors here, but ultimately the Sixers have the highest upside of that trio, so I gave them the nod.