The goal of every Mountain West team entering the season with a few possible exceptions is to reach the NCAA Tournament. That’s something all but four of the league’s 12 members this season have experienced in the last four seasons (the exceptions are UNLV, San Jose State, Air Force and Fresno State).

To accomplish that goal, you need quality non-conference wins and that requires scheduling quality non-conference games, which makes it possible to land an NCAA Tournament at-large berth. The Wolf Pack men’s basketball team dropped its non-league schedule this week, which consists of 11 games, including seven at home, two on the road and two in neutral sites.

The fan reaction to Nevada’s non-league schedules under seventh-year head coach Steve Alford have generally been mixed at best, with many Wolf Pack fans wanted a stronger slate of games. But Nevada’s non-league schedule was strong enough for NCAA Tournament at-large bids in 2023 and 2024, albeit with barely any margin as Nevada was the last team in the field in 2023 and fifth-to-last in the field in 2024.

Here are Nevada’s non-conference strength of schedule marks the last five seasons in reverse chronological order — 112, 239, 72, 50 and 98. Those are competitive marks that stem in part from Nevada rarely playing teams with NET rankings in the 200-plus territory, a smart manipulation of the system.

The Wolf Pack has relied on its multi-team events to land Quad 1 non-league games during this stretch and will try and do so again this season with its appearance in the Acrisure Series in Palm Desert, Calif., although that event features just two games. It’s the first time since 2020-21 Nevada will play in an MTE that doesn’t have three games, and the more games in those tournaments the better as it gives you more opportunities for important Quad 1 or Quad 2 victories.

Assuming Nevada’s goal is to get an NCAA Tournament at-large berth, here is a breakdown of the Wolf Pack’s non-league games this season. But first, here’s a refresher on the Quad ranking system with the opponents NET ranking outlined below for Quad 1, Quad 2, Quad 3 and Quad 4 games (the lower the Quad ranking, the more highly rated the opponent).

Quad 1: Home 1-30 NET, Neutral 1-50 NET, Away 1-75 NET

Quad 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135

Quad 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240

Quad 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Now, lets sort Nevada’s 2025-26 non-league games into where they are likely to fall on the Quad system, which is an estimate because you never know how an opponent will perform.

Quad 1: vs. Washington (117)

Quad 2: vs. Colorado/San Francisco (86/64); at Washington State (112); at Santa Clara (57)

Quad 3: vs. Louisiana Tech (126); vs. UC Santa Barbara (140); UC San Diego (35); vs. Duquesne (149)

Quad 4: vs. Pacific (295); vs. Southern Illinois (195); vs. UC Davis (237)

Our projection gives Nevada one Quad 1 game, three Quad 2 games, four Quad 3 games and three Quad 4 games. I’m pushing Washington up two Quad levels from last year’s ranking, Santa Clara down one and UC San Diego down one but keeping all of the other teams where they would have ranked last year.

The key games here are the two at the Acrisure Series (Washington and Colorado/USF) and the two on the road (Santa Clara, Washington State). Those four games should determine the meat on Nevada’s non-league at-large résumé as the seven home games should all be wins for an NCAA Tournament-caliber team, but none of those are likely to place in the Quad 1 or Quad 2 category.

Last year, Nevada’s non-league schedule included two Quad 1 games, two Quad 2 games, four Quad 3 games and three Quad 4 games, which is in line with this year’s projection (I have one fewer Quad 1 game and one more Quad 2 game projected).

When Nevada made the NCAA Tournament in 2024, it had three Quad 1 games (went 2-1) and zero Quad 2 games. When Nevada made the NCAA Tournament in 2023, it had two Quad 1 games (went 0-2) and two Quad 2 games (went 1-1). So, we’ve seen schedules like this work out for Nevada in the past, but that requires the Mountain West to be a four-bid kind of league, which it has been in each of the previous four seasons.

The Wolf Pack’s MW schedule also was released this week and Nevada will play only one game against Grand Canyon and Colorado State. While that helps the Wolf Pack’s odds of finishing higher in the standings given the Antelopes and Rams should be among the MW’s best, it does remove a potential Quad 1 game (at Grand Canyon) and potential Quad 2 game (vs. Colorado State) from the mix.

Nevada’s margin of error for an at-large bid, given its non-league schedule, is small, but it’s possible the Wolf Pack achieves that result as long as the MW remains a top-six conference in the nation (it should). Would fans prefer the non-league schedules of UNLV (six top-100 NET teams), San Diego State (games with Arizona, Oregon and Michigan) or Boise State (three games at the the Maui Invitational plus one with St. Mary’s)? Yes. But that’s not been Nevada’s non-league scheduling template under Alford.

With the MW losing NCAA Tournament regulars San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State plus Colorado State next season, the Wolf Pack will have to upgrade its non-league schedule for a realistic shot at an at-large bid starting in 2026-27. But this year’s schedule follows a half-decade-old formula that has placed Nevada in a pair of NCAA tournaments. In both cases, it was close, so there’s not much wiggle room here for the Wolf Pack.

Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.