Redrafts are an interesting and useful exercise when assessing an NBA draft class. The basic question is simple: knowing what we now know based on however many years of NBA play, would we make the same decision today that talent evaluators made on that draft day.
Today, let’s dig into the 2024 draft, which yielded the Washington Wizards the following:
Later in the 2024-24 offseason, they traded for 23rd overall selection AJ Johnson, and in the offseason acquired Dillon Jones, who was the 26th overall pick.
The fun thing about redrafts — especially after a single season — is that many of the same factors apply. We have actual NBA information, but we’re still trying to assess potential. What’s a guy’s ceiling? How likely is he to reach it? And does the player we’re looking at fit within the team context?
As it does on draft day, age matters. My PPA metric says Zach Edey was the most productive rookie on a per possession basis. He was efficient on offense (+8.3 per 100 possessions relative to average), rebounded effectively, and was probably around neutral on defense. He was also 22, which while young in real life, is on the old side for a modern NBA prospect. He doesn’t have the highest upside.
Regular readers know that I’m a believer in statistical analysis. When it comes to guessing at the futures of players this young, it has its limits. For example Yves Missi, Kel’el Ware and Donovan Clingan were three of the four rookies (the other was Edey) who rated average or better in my PPA metric last season. A straight numerical forecast would predict stardom for the trio.
Watching them suggests something different. Clingan, Ware and Missi were raw. They were productive in part because of their lack of skill, and they limited their offensive repertoire mostly to shots within three feet of the basket. They may be hard workers, and they might improve their all-around skills enough to contribute more on the offensive end, but it’s difficult to envision any of them developing sufficiently as an offensive threat to become stars.
In other words, redrafting this group isn’t as simple as sorting by PPA or even total production. There’s still a process of reconciling what I see in the numbers with what I saw on the floor during the regular season.
Let me know what you think in the comments.