After facing three lackluster opponents over the first three weeks, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza got his first real test of 2025 against Illinois. And as my wife, a third-grade teacher, would say: He passed with a gold star and an “Awesome job!” at the top of the page.

The final numbers for Mendoza in the 63-10 victory: 21-for-23 passing (91.3 percent completions) for 267 yards, five touchdowns and no turnovers — and he didn’t play in the fourth-quarter, with the game well in hand. Mendoza now leads the FBS this season in passing touchdowns (14) and has yet to throw an interception.

He didn’t have many high-difficulty throws on Saturday’s tape (his only pass attempt of 20-plus yards was incomplete). But he operated Indiana’s RPO-heavy offense on time and very efficiently.

What did the performance mean for his draft status? Here are four plays — and some final thoughts — from the Illinois tape that encapsulate where he stands as an NFL prospect.

Play 1: Layered touchdown toss

Let’s start out hot. This is Mendoza’s best throw of the night:

 

Following a false start, Indiana is facing third-and-goal from the Illinois 11. With man coverage across the board, an extra middle-field safety and a defensive lineman dropping, the quarterback needs time — and for one of his receivers to beat his man. Mendoza receives both, as Illinois rushes only three and E.J. Williams Jr. gets his man leaning outside before cutting vertical toward the post.

The cardinal rules for quarterbacks in the red zone: Throw low when targeting the front of the end zone, aim high when throwing to the back. Without panic, Mendoza quickly diagnoses the defense and delivers a perfect strike over the coverage, where Williams can elevate and bring down the catch. Mendoza’s ability to layer throws shows up on each of his tapes.

One thing that bothered me on his 2024 film was his tendency to rush his process — it can be easy for quarterbacks to get antsy in red-zone pockets. On this play, though, Mendoza stays calm, in rhythm and undeterred. And then the placement of the throw is perfect. His poise and accuracy are the main takeaways here.

Play 2: Playing with fire

One of my concerns with Mendoza is his average physical profile. The size and build are fine, but his arm strength and athleticism are closer to average than above average.

This throw from the opposite hash has to travel a long way and starts to lose life at the back end. The cornerback is zeroed on the wide receiver, but were he to get one eye on the quarterback (when I pause the tape), he easily could drive on the throw and disrupt the passing lane before the ball reaches its target.

 

Simply put, this would be a pick six in the NFL.

Mendoza is very adept at playing on time, but he doesn’t have the arm strength to get away with distance throws like this versus tight coverage, especially when flat-footed.

Play 3: Functional mobility?

Mendoza is an adequate athlete for his size, but what does that mean in the context of his play? Though no one will confuse him with Josh Allen, that shouldn’t be the bar quarterbacks need to reach to be described as “mobile.”

 

Mendoza will always be the type of quarterback who does his best work in structure. Examples like this, however, provide promising evidence that Mendoza can not only extend the play with his legs, but also have the presence to find an outlet on the move. On this play, the flat defender respects the quarterback’s mobility and Mendoza exploits it, dumping the ball off for the first down.

The structure of the Indiana offense is built on RPOs and quick decisions. But when the designed read isn’t there and Mendoza is forced to climb or move off his spot, evaluators want to see him do just enough — like in this example — to create and keep plays alive, even if there is a dynamic element missing from his game.

Play 4: Blitz at your own risk

Picture the Morgan Freeman GIF from “The Dark Knight” — “He is smart enough to sense your pressure and quickly find vulnerable matchups. And your plan is to blitz this quarterback? Good luck!”

 

This is second-and-goal from the 5; Illinois is in Cover 0 with man to man outside and everyone else attacking downhill. With the running back staying home to block, Indiana has six players to block Illinois’ seven, which means Mendoza is responsible for the unaccounted rusher.

No problem. Mendoza anticipates the pressure pre-snap and knows he will have the middle of the field wide open. He immediately looks to Elijah Sarratt in the slot, who beats his man and gives the quarterback a window. Quick thinking and no panic from Mendoza equals an easy six points.

Mendoza’s stats versus the blitz over the last two seasons: 63.5 percent completions (108-for-170), 1,546 passing yards (9.1 yards per attempt), 15 touchdowns, 80 first downs and zero interceptions.

Final thoughts

I don’t think anyone should be drastically altering their opinion of Mendoza based on this one tape, especially given that 17 of his 21 completions came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. But he deserves credit for playing in rhythm and taking what was available for him. Playing quarterback at a high level isn’t just about creating big plays, it is also about limiting mistakes and attacking where the defense is most vulnerable — that’s what Mendoza does in this offense.

He started the season ranked No. 20 on my preseason top 50, and I’m comfortable with him in that spot based on what we have seen thus far. With games coming up at Oregon (Oct. 11) and Penn State (Nov. 8), maybe that will change.

There are some limitations to Mendoza’s game, which will be interpreted differently from evaluator to evaluator, but his mental acuity and accuracy can make him an NFL starter.

(Photo: James Black / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)