The Miami Heat are no strangers to being viewed as heavy underdogs, and their 2025-26 betting odds once again have them unfavored amongst the rest of the association. 
(Photo via NBA.com)

Arguably ever since LeBron James left the Miami Heat organization in the summer of 2014, it’s been a decade-plus of a lack of media appreciation. Whether it’s from national coverage, or betting odds, the Heat have had to buy-in to an underdogs personnel. 

This was a common theme especially during the Jimmy Butler era from 2019-2024. Still, that Heat core repeatedly defied all the negative odds and expectations that were thrown their way. That was well documented by the overachieving success of two NBA Finals runs and one Eastern Conference finals run all in a five-year span— as NBA fans around the world started jumping on board with the franchise’s infamous “Heat Culture.” 

This current Heat squad is still searching for their identity in a post-Butler timeline. 

Last season was a difficult one to do so, to say the least. Miami had to string all the pieces together on the fly amidst the Butler drama and welcoming new key pieces aboard to supplement the Tyler Herro-Bam Adebayo duo. 

Andrew Wiggins and Davion Mitchell both served as the most crucial building blocks in the midseason trade return. And with Wiggins still under contract for one more season with a player option at the end of it, along with Mitchell’s re-signing earlier this summer— they will each get to continue solidifying real roles in coach Erik Spoelstra’s rotation moving forward.

Most importantly, the Heat finally addressed their offensive hole with the acquisition of Norman Powell this offseason. 

Powell’s near 20 points per game on efficient shooting numbers has been a welcome addition on paper since the day the summer deal went down. For the cost of just Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson— two aging vets that didn’t receive regular playing time last season— Miami pulled off arguably the steal of the summer on the trade market. 

Powell will assuredly help take some scoring burden off of the Herro and Adebayo duo. Especially with Herro, now coming off first-time All-Star honors, will see less pressure from opposing defenses. 

In the Cleveland Cavalier’s first-round sweep against Miami this past postseason, Herro was a clear target on Cleveland’s scouting report. They did a great job at forcing the ball out of his hands as the lone true offensive weapon in the Heat’s lineup. Now with Powell around, Miami will have the luxury of getting the ball to another established scoring option as needed. 

Unfortunately for Heat fans, they will have to wait a bit to see the potential of that new backcourt pairing with Herro and Powell. It was recently reported that Herro has suffered an ankle injury in an offseason workout, and will undergo surgery on his left foot. 

There is no real timeline yet for his return, but the All-Star guard will be sidelined to begin the 2025-26 campaign. At minimum, it is expected that Herro misses a full month of regular season action. 

Now Miami is facing the same limitations offensively as they did one season ago, except with Powell stepping in to man most of the scoring pressure in the backcourt rather than Herro. With all this being said, the Heat’s betting odds aren’t looking good with just around one month away from the season opener. 

Fans can explore the latest Heat odds and promotions by taking advantage of the Fanatics Sportsbook promo, which offers new users unique perks throughout the season.

As of now, major sportsbooks place Miami at around +25000 to win the 2026 championship, which puts them in the same tier as teams like the Memphis Grizzlies and Toronto Raptors—and just above bottom non-playoff teams from a season ago like the New Orleans Pelicans, Chicago Bulls, and Portland Trail Blazers.

Additional odds for the Heat include:
• +5500 to win the Eastern Conference
• +2500 to win the Southeast Division
• 36.5 projected win total (over/under)

That number has them finishing third out of the fifth division rivals and behind the Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks.

Their projected win total of 36.5 signals that the team is expected to slightly underperform last season’s 37-45 record.

Clearly, the odds are once again not in Miami’s favor. 

However, with the mediocrity that the team has been dealt with over the years— that notion could be fair for now. 

As mentioned, the Heat are still searching for their identity in the post-Butler era. This is not the same team that had the ability to limp their way into the playoffs and have Butler turn the switch into one of the best players in the league to help lead the way to a Finals run. 

In fact, the Heat are coming off their third straight play-in appearance. And if these betting projections come to fruition, they could be looking at a real possibility of their fourth. 

Despite Miami showing success in getting out of the play-in tournament and earning playoff berths in recent years, there is little-to-no evidence that shows they have the ability to shock the world again. They will need to lean heavily on their revamped Herro, Adebayo and Powell core— along with seeing some strong level of play from the depth. 

But even then, that new trio is already starting the season on the wrong foot after Herro’s sudden offseason ankle injury.

They still have some strong names in their supporting cast capable of stepping up, such as Wiggins, Mitchell, Kel’el Ware and Nikola Jovic. Spoelstra still represents himself as arguably the greatest coach in the entire league. 

This Heat group has the pieces to improve, but they will have to play their cards right to put it all together on the court. 

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