The Miami Heat acquired Norman Powell in early July. (Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)
Unfortunately, the Miami Heat will be without its best offensive player — Tyler Herro — at the start of the 2024-25 season after the 25-year-old guard underwent foot surgery earlier this month.
Herro, 25, led the Heat in scoring last year and assumed a primary creation role, averaging a team-high 23.9 points on a career-best 60.5 percent true shooting. It all reared its ugly head in Miami’s embarrassing first-round exit at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers. But Herro did a respectable job leading the charge offensively for most of the season, albeit for a below-average unit.
No matter how you slice the pie, they will miss his offense at the start of the season. Miami’s been a bottom-third unit each of the last three seasons, and if Herro misses a considerable amount of time, there’s a chance they’re in that territory for a fourth-straight season.
In the meantime, the Heat will have to find some way to replace his near 25-point per game production. His slice of scoring pie will be up for grabs, and I’m eyeing one particular player who could supplant him, if anyone does: New Heat guard Norman Powell.
Norman Powell could lead the Heat in scoring:
Let’s make one thing clear: Powell was brought in as an addition, not a replacement. For the first month, at least, he’s effectively replacing Herro.
To a small degree, this situation has some similarity to the one Powell was in last year with the Los Angeles Clippers. Entering his first full-time starting role since 2021-22, Powell was going to see an uptick in usage due to Paul George’s departure and Kawhi Leonard’s ailing knee injury.
Obviously, James Harden and Bam Adebayo are two completely different players. But Adebayo is the biggest threat to take upwards of 20 shots on a nightly basis — as was Harden in last year’s Clippers’ context (when Leonard was injured). The Heat will still run offense through Adebayo — their best player — and Andrew Wiggins, who averaged 18.0 points on 44.8/37.4/76.3 shooting splits a year ago. But now enters Powell, who will be thrust into a greater role, where he’s thrived in the past.
Across 2,243 possessions when Powell shared the floor with at least one of Leonard or Harden (but not both), Powell averaged 25.6 points per 75 possessions on 60.9 percent true shooting, according to PBP Stats. When neither were on the floor, his scoring elevated to 29.6 points on eerily similar efficiency. The Clippers were better at advantage creation, but I don’t think there’s any reason why Powell can’t feast in the Heat’s equal opportunity offense as one of their top options nightly.
The calculus changes when Herro returns. But Powell should be a helpful outlet who can be a secondary ball handler, attack closeouts and knock down open 3-pointers regardless of who he shares the floor with. There’s a path for him to lead the team in scoring — allowing Adebayo to lean more into his defense while taking some burden off Herro.
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