Now that most NBA rosters are nearly set, it’s a great time to project how the Western Conference will play out.
The Dallas Mavericks didn’t qualify for the postseason last year, primarily because of injury misfortune – just one of many circumstances that prevented them from returning to the NBA Finals. But it’ll soon be a new year, and everyone has a clean slate.
Dallas will start a bit behind the eight ball because Kyrie Irving will need several months of the regular season to recover from left ACL surgery. Nonetheless, the Mavericks should have a roster formidable enough to remain in the playoff picture.
The battle for the top eight seeds could be another bloodbath, similar to last season’s postseason race. The Western Conference’s seeds from 4-10 were still undecided on the final day of the season.
Mavericks
As training camps start this week, here’s a preview of what the Western Conference standings could look like after the 80th NBA season officially kicks off Oct. 21.
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Championship contendersOklahoma City ThunderMinnesota TimberwolvesHouston Rockets
It’s hard not to view the defending champion Thunder as the overwhelming favorite to claim next year’s top seed in the Western Conference for the second consecutive season.
Oklahoma City will return virtually everyone from last season’s title team and has gained an immense amount of experience over the last two postseasons, including from their elimination by the Mavericks in the second round of the 2024 playoffs. Dallas was the only team to beat the Thunder three times last season, a considerable feat given the circumstances.
The NBA’s top defense from a year ago should remain potent thanks to Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein and last but certainly not least, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Minnesota has reached the Western Conference finals for the last two seasons. Could a third consecutive trip lead to the first NBA Finals appearance in franchise history? Only time will tell, but the Timberwolves have a pretty good shot to finish as a top-three seed.
Anthony Edwards just turned 24 last month and is barely scratching the prime of his career, proving himself an elite 3-point shooter last season. With a formidable co-star in Julius Randle and one of the best rim protectors in the league manning the paint in Rudy Gobert, the Wolves could pose a threat to not just any foe out West but throughout the league.
Houston has found an interesting way to blend its talented young core with savvy veterans. The addition of Kevin Durant gives the Rockets a primary scoring option, but they can also rely upon Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson to help bear the load for the bulk of the regular season. Losing starting point guard Fred VanVleet to a torn ACL right before training camp is a brutal blow to the Rockets, who will likely rely on Thompson and second-year guard Reed Sheppard more than they envisioned this year. Houston finished second in the West last season and could be a team with the weapons to make some noise in the competitive conference.
Playoff boundDenver NuggetsLos Angeles ClippersDallas Mavericks
This is where it gets dicey. A handful of good teams in the West could find themselves in this category, including the Mavericks, but there can only be three for the sake of this list.
Nikola Jokic is arguably coming off his best season in the NBA, which could’ve resulted in a third MVP had it not been for Gilgeous-Alexander’s phenomenal year. The Nuggets could be a top-4 team in the West with the 7-foot magician still at the top of his game, Jamal Murray entering the season healthy and newly acquired sharpshooter Cam Johnson entering the mix. Not to mention, they added more depth with veterans Jonas Valanciunas, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown – who was part of their 2023 championship roster.
The Clippers doubled down on experience. Take a look at some key members of their roster: Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, Brook Lopez, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Derrick Jones Jr. and John Collins. They’ll enter the season with the oldest roster in NBA history, with an average age of 33.2 years old, surpassing the previous record held by the John Stockton and Karl Malone-led Utah Jazz.
Veteran leadership matters, especially during the postseason. The six-month regular season is where things can get murky. The Clippers have depth and the personnel to be competitive, but it’ll be intriguing to see whether they can crack the top-four in the West.
If you’ve read this far, you’re probably a Mavericks fan and wondering why your favorite team is so far down on this list. Well, the answer isn’t easy because the Mavericks are in a complicated situation.
Their franchise point guard, Kyrie Irving, is expected to be unavailable for multiple months because he’s still recovering from ACL surgery. Without a definitive timeline for his return, it’s hard to believe the current roster will come out of the gates swinging. Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively II both had offseason procedures. It’s expected they will be ready for training camp, but their statuses could gain clarity at the team’s media day Monday.
The outcome of this season will depend entirely on health and Cooper Flagg’s development. The No. 1 overall pick will have an opportunity to showcase his versatile skillset early and often while learning from the veterans that surround him.
Play-In pictureLos Angeles LakersGolden State WarriorsMemphis GrizzliesSan Antonio Spurs
These seeds are usually determined within the final few days of the regular season. Anything can happen, especially given each team’s offseason activity.
The Los Angeles Lakers made significant changes this summer, pairing former Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic with a capable big man in Deandre Ayton, while adding a wing defender in Marcus Smart. Those pieces would’ve come in handy during their first-round playoff exit to the Wolves. Let’s not forget about LeBron James, who is still a top-10 player in the NBA. The Lakers could find themselves toward the top of the pack or fighting for playoff positioning.
The Warriors didn’t have a full season of the Jimmy Butler experience, but having an entire training camp to integrate the versatile forward should bode well. Franchise staples Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are a year older but still capable of being elite scorers and defenders, respectively. The supporting cast could limit Golden State from shining as bright as it did during its dynasty, especially without any big offseason additions.
The Grizzlies officially kicked off this summer’s trade season by dealing former TCU star Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for a handful of first-round draft picks and veteran wing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The move weakened their backcourt presence, which now prominently features Ja Morant. That’ll put even more attention on Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. While it isn’t clear how much that move will hinder Memphis, it’s a foregone conclusion that it doesn’t do much to help the roster in the short-term.
San Antonio is a fascinating team. Some days, I think the Spurs are lottery bound again. But others, I can see them being greatly improved. It’ll all hinge on the health of Victor Wembanyama, who is entering his third season as the franchise’s heir to Tim Duncan and David Robinson. A potent backcourt trio of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper is enough to keep opposing backcourts scattering on defense. The reconstructed Spurs should be ready to flirt with the next level in their development, which is the Play-In Tournament.
Lottery boundPhoenix SunsNew Orleans PelicansPortland Trail BlazersSacramento KingsUtah Jazz
It’s interesting to call this group noncontenders, especially given the talent on their rosters.
The duo of Devin Booker and Jalen Green sounds like a dynamic backcourt, but there’s not much else in Phoenix besides a bevy of big men, including Mark Williams.
New Orleans has an All-Star caliber forward in Zion Williamson, but his inability to be available on a nightly basis has hindered the franchise’s chances to make the postseason.
There’s a good chance Damian Lillard won’t return to the Portland Trail Blazers lineup until the 2026-27 season after recovering from a torn Achilles. Jrue Holiday will man the starting role in the meantime. That also leaves newly extended coach Chauncey Billups a gap year to further develop Shaedon Sharpe, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Scoot Henderson, Donovan Clingan and rookie big man Yang Hansen.
Sacramento is a team with pieces that don’t appear to complement each other, with a core featuring Dennis Schroder, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis. It’s a team that lacks perimeter shooting and has an abundance of isolation-heavy players. Is that enough to compete in an extremely competitive Western Conference?
Without much direction outside of the development of their young pieces, the Jazz could find themselves vying for another top-five pick in next year’s draft.
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