Specialization often produces the best results. If there’s a place that only cooks corned beef hash and salivating patrons are lined up outside waiting to grub it down, you best believe that’s the best freaking corned beef hash in town. And there’s only one reason I’m going there.
But there are downsides to specialization, burnout being the main one. While diversity may not always produce the best results, the sum of the parts may be more valuable. That’s why I’m always down for the buffet. Get a little of this. Get a little of that.
I’m treating this piece like a buffet. Some breakouts. Some upside stashes. Players who may rebound and some glue guys.
ADP data is from NFBKC (Sept. 1 to Oct. 9).
BreakoutsJalen Duren (C), Detroit Pistons | ADP: 51.4
Duren is only 22 years old, and this will be his fourth season in the NBA. He was ninth in double-doubles last season with 41. With his physique and athleticism, Duren will continue being a beast on the glass. He’s been working out with Rasheed Wallace in the offseason to develop a deeper offensive bag — not just 3-pointers, but post moves and mid-range jumpers. Defensively, he keeps improving. His awareness has increased while the blocks went over 1.0 for the first time last season. He only played 26.1 minutes, though, due to some injuries and foul trouble. If he can stay on the court for an average of 30 minutes per game, a Duren breakout seems likely.
Matas Buzelis (F), Chicago Bulls | ADP: 69.6
I went over Buzelis in the Sleepers article, so I will just tell you that Buzelis averaged 18.9 mpg while starting 31 of 80 games last season. He’s now locked into the starting lineup, and I have him projected for 32 mpg.
Neemias Queta (C), Boston Celtics | ADP: 118.33
Queta averaged 13.9 mpg last season, but Boston’s center depth chart is wide open this season. I have the center minutes split right down the middle with Luka Garza, but I think there’s a chance the pendulum swings in favor of Queta. He’s tall, long and nimble on his feet. Queta provides rim protection and is versatile on offense despite not spacing the floor. He flushes down oops and handles pocket passes well, either finishing strong at the rim or dishing dimes to open teammates.
Shaedon Sharpe (G), Portland Trail Blazers | ADP: 93.33
Sharpe is only 22 years old, and this will be his fourth NBA season. He has flea-like hops and is a professional getter of buckets. The usage rate has been in the mid-20% range over the past few seasons, but with Anfernee Simons now in Boston, that number could approach 30%. At the end of last season, Sharpe played five games without Simons. The usage rate was 31.7% and Sharpe averaged 28.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.6 steals and 3.2 treys while shooting 45% from the field, 34% from downtown and 75% from the line.
Brice Sensabaugh (F), Utah Jazz | ADP: 170.67
There are questions regarding playing time for Sensabaugh, as Ace Bailey and Lauri Markkanen should soak up most of the forward minutes. I think Sensabaugh backs up both positions, and there’s the upside case if Markkanen gets shut down or traded. There are no questions regarding Sensabaugh’s ability to get buckets, though. In 71 games last season, he shot 45% from the field and 42% from downtown. Could a similar career arc to Payton Pritchard be in the works?
Jake LaRavia (F), Los Angeles Lakers | ADP: 257.2
LaRavia was a late addition to the smorgasbord after getting the news that LeBron James (sciatica) will be out for at least three to four weeks. Marcus Smart is a candidate to start and see an increase in value, but I think LaRavia could be the guy. He’s always been an analytics darling and has good size at 6’-foot-7 and 235 pounds. He’s a career 37% shooter from downtown. LaRavia could slot in at small forward while Rui Hachimura starts at power forward.
Bounce-back candidatesDeandre Ayton (C), Los Angeles Lakers | ADP: 62.27
Ayton has averaged fewer than 15 points per game twice in his career: in 2020 and last season. From a fantasy value perspective, he has finished in the range of 32-to-55 on a per-game basis throughout his career. Last season, though, Ayton finished 82nd. Now that he’s in Los Angeles, I expect the points to increase as he will get plenty of good looks playing alongside Luka Doncic and LeBron James. In addition, I’m bullish on an increase in defensive stats.
Miles Bridges (F), Charlotte Hornets | ADP: 79.4
Bridges shot a career-low 43% from the field last season and 31% from downtown. He’s a career 46% shooter from the field and has been below 45% only one other time — 2019 (42%). With a healthy LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel surrounding him, I expect Bridges to have one of his best shooting efficiency seasons.
Pascal Siakam (F), Indiana Pacers | ADP: 38.87
Many of the stats ticked down for Siakam last season. His 20.2 points per game and 3.4 assists per game were his lowest since 2018. With Tyrese Haliburton out with an injury, Siakam should see an uptick in his usage rate, resulting in more counting stats.
D’Angelo Russell (G), Dallas Mavericks | ADP: 123.53
Russell is coming off a tumultuous season, as he started only 10 of 29 games for the Lakers before getting sent to Brooklyn, where he started 26 of 29 games. He converted 39% of his shots between the two teams and shot 31% from downtown. He’s a career 42% shooter from the field and 36% from downtown. He’s now in Dallas, will start and should see most of the point guard minutes until Kyrie Irving is ready, which could be next season. The situation is more settled, and the surrounding talent should provide plenty of clean looks, so I expect his shooting efficiency to revert to career norms.
Jrue Holiday (G), Portland Trail Blazers | ADP: 124.47
When Holiday was with Milwaukee, his usage rate was around 24%. In two years with Boston, his usage rate was around 16%. Now that he’s in Portland, the usage should creep back into the 20% range, especially with Scoot Henderson out with an injury.
Upside stash candidatesCedric Coward (G), Memphis Grizzlies | ADP: 273.33
Coward is 6-foot-5, 213 pounds with a 7-foot-2 wingspan. He was a career 38% shooter from downtown in college, averaging 17.7 ppg in six games at Washington State. The talk regarding Coward has been positive all offseason, and there’s a chance he will become a significant part of the rotation.
Tristan Vukcevic (C), Washington Wizards | ADP: 257.13
The depth chart behind Alex Sarr at center is barren for the Wizards. Vukcevic is the likely backup, with Marvin Bagley perhaps in the mix. Vukcevic has defensive issues, but he’s potent at the offensive end, flushing oops and spacing the floor. He shot 37% from downtown on 2.9 attempts in 35 games last season.
Cam Whitmore (F), Washington Wizards | ADP: 148.07
Whitmore is an uber-athlete who has no conscience when jacking up shots. He likely won’t start, but Whitmore should get plenty of minutes off the bench. Later in the season, the upside case is that Washington rests veterans and gives players like Whitmore the runway down the stretch.
Ryan Kalkbrenner (C), Charlotte Hornets | ADP: 188.87
Kalkbrenner may not start or get much run early, as Moussa Diabate and Mason Plumlee will likely soak up most of the center minutes. Kalkbrenner is mature — 23 years old with five years of college ball under his belt — so he’s more NBA-ready than most rookies. Coaches have talked positively regarding Kalkbrenner during the offseason, and he provides size at 7-foot-1 and 256 pounds with shot-blocking prowess that Plumlee and Diabate lack.
Ryan Dunn (F), Phoenix Suns | ADP: 179.73
Dunn is 6-foot-8, 216 pounds and was Phoenix’s first-round pick in 2024. He will likely start for the Suns and play around 28 mpg. The shooting is the big bugaboo; he converted only 31% from downtown last season. But there were stretches when he looked confident and was tickling the twine. If he can improve the 3-point shooting, the defensive stats should be there. During his final season in college, he averaged 1.3 steals and 2.3 blocks per game.
Glue guysDerrick White (G), Boston Celtics | ADP: 38.4
Due to an expected usage rate bump this season, White is more like hot glue sprayed from a gun than the slow procession of cold, pasty Elmer’s glue. White provides a little something, something in every category without harming you anywhere. He was 0.1 steals away from being a 1/1/1 player — per game averages for 3s/steals/blocks.
Cooper Flagg (F), Dallas Mavericks | ADP: 39.87
Flagg will likely be a superstar at some point, but I don’t think he takes on an alpha role just yet. The Mavericks still have Anthony Davis and plenty of veterans on the roster. What Flagg will likely do, though, is chip in everywhere. He was a defensive menace in high school and college. That shouldn’t change in the NBA due to his athleticism, IQ and motor.
Onyeka Okongwu (C), Atlanta Hawks | ADP: 64.2
The breakout for Okongwu likely won’t happen this season due to the acquisition of Kristaps Porzingis. But he should still play around 28 mpg and chip in across the board. Okongwu doesn’t get many treys, but the rebounds will be robust with double-digit points and around a steal and block per game.
OG Anunoby (F), New York Knicks | ADP: 63.8
The only bugaboo for OG is health, but he played 74 games last season. It was the first time since his rookie season that he played over 70 games. He literally stuffs the stat sheet while providing good percentages. Last season, OG averaged 18 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.3 treys while shooting 47% from the field, 37% from downtown and 81% from the line.
Christian Braun (G), Denver Nuggets | ADP: 93.07
Braun isn’t great at blocks, but he still provided 0.5 last season. He won’t overwhelm you with stats, but 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.1 treys are pretty good. But what makes Braun really enticing are his shooting percentages: 58% from the field, 39% from downtown and 82% from the line. The field goal percentage will likely come down, but should remain high due to playing alongside Nikola Jokic. It’s not like he’s ISO’ing and hucking up buzzer beaters. Braun makes his hay in transition, off cuts and open spot-up jumpers. His free-throw shooting is the conundrum, though, as he shot 62% and 69% from the line, respectively, during his first two seasons.