Thunder at Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

The Denver Nuggets host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of their best-of-7 NBA Playoff series Thursday. Tip from Ball Arena in the Mile High City is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Thunder vs. Nuggets odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Thunder lead 3-2

The Thunder were down 2-1 in the series, but have won back-to-back games. They won Game 4 in Denver 92-87 and then won Game 5 at home 112-105 on Tuesday, failing to cover as a 10.5-point favorite. They used a +15 fourth-quarter margin to pull ahead. All 5 Oklahoma City starters scored in double figures, led by G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 31 points. OKC finished the regular season 55-23-4 against the spread (ATS), but has gone just 3-6 ATS in the playoffs.

The Nuggets have only won in this series when they’ve been able to score more than 106 points. Denver was led by C Nikola Jokic, who scored 44 points on 17-for-25 shooting and 15 rebiunds, but Denver was doomed by shooting just 41% from the field and 28% from deep. It has covered in 5 of its last 6 games and is 7-4-1 ATS in postseason action.

Thunder at Nuggets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:39 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Thunder -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Nuggets +165 (bet $100 to win $165)Against the spread (ATS): Thunder -4.5 (-110) | Nuggets +4.5 (+110)Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Thunder at Nuggets key injuries

Thunder

Nuggets

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Thunder at Nuggets picks and predictionsPrediction

Nuggets 113, Thunder 108

PASS.

While the Nuggets on the moneyline have value in a win-or-go-home Game 6 for Denver, considering all but one game has ended within single digits, the preferred route is the spread.

BET NUGGETS +4.5 (-110).

The Nuggets have played well when they’ve had their backs against the wall. In Game 5 of their first-round series, they won at home by 16 and then again by 19 in Game 7, covering in both. They are an experienced team led by a multi-time MVP. Denver had the fourth-best offensive rating in the league during the regular season, so expect its offensive efficiency to bounce back as well.

The Thunder still have the claim as the youngest team in the NBA, and they have played 4 road playoff games in the last month, failing to cover in each. Oklahoma City is just 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games. Considering those trends for both sides, back NUGGETS +4.5 (-110).

BET OVER 216.5 (-110).

Both of these teams were ranked among the top 3 NBA teams in regular season offensive efficiency. In the postseason, Oklahoma City ranks second in pace as well. The series has been fast, but not overly efficient, which should change.

Denver is 5-3 O/U in its last 8 games and was 48-33-1 O/U during the regular season. OKC, which scored at least 114 points in all 4 first-round games, is 3-3 O/U in its last 6 contests. Take OVER 216.5 (-110).

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Thunder at Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

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