On the surface, wins and losses really determine the outcome for seasons. It determines seeding, which could play a factor in just how far a team is capable of going — given their playoff path. It could serve as a component that ushers change.
Within wins and losses come different outcomes that serves as a catalyst for this barometer, and for a team’s trajectory.
I want to focus on that element for a minute.
The Grizzlies have a lot of dynamics to unpack and monitor over the course of the season. Some will affect the win-loss record, and some will tell a lot about what happens this season and beyond.
I’m going to start with a major outcome tied with wins and losses: reaching the playoffs and making some noise there. Look, it doesn’t have to parlay into a championship, Finals trip, or even a conference finals trip. Can the Grizzlies have an encouraging run through a highly-competitive first-round and second-round series? Maybe!
Dunk on me for the preseason performance. Whatever, let’s show some cases of why preseason performances aren’t reflective of regular season success:
last year’s Cavaliers: 0-5 in preseason, 67-15 in the regular season
both NBA finalists teams in 2021 — Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns — went winless in preseason. Both teams nearly had -10 NET ratings
2016 Cavaliers: 1-6 in preseason, NBA champions
The 2023-24 Toronto Raptors had the best NET rating (+22.4), and they finished with 25 wins
Yes, the Grizzlies have real issues to work out — particularly with the defense. However, let’s see what they look like with a normal NBA rotation.
Okay preseason rant is over. I want to get back to this point.
Sure, most NBA GMs want to be more than a “here to make some noise” playoff team. In the case of this season, returning to the playoffs and creating some motion would do a lot to get the team back towards the trajectory from the early stages of this era. In my season preview next week, I’ll break down the realism of it — not as farfetched as people may think.
In addition, a good playoff run — or even an ultra-competitive first-round series — would generate some buzz around the team in the city. It feels needed after the last few seasons. We’ve seen how Memphis can get for playoff basketball. Let’s hope to see it this season. It could lay the foundation for the Grizzlies for the remainder of the decade.
Ja Morant’s availability hasn’t been quite there. The Instagram live incidents zapped him of 33 games across the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons. Other injuries here and there. Let’s be clear though — some of these injuries are unavoidable. Getting taken out in midair twice in transition, getting blindsided on a screen, and then landing on a defenders’ foot on a jumpshot when they’re in your landing zone. I get it, it’s unfortunate.
At media day, Morant said his goal is to play all 82 games. Zach Kleiman also said, “I think it is fair to say, as we continue to build this team, if we want a high-end outcome in the near term, we need Ja to be a consistent All-NBA caliber player.”
Consistency probably doesn’t fall onto his game. In the past four seasons, he’s averaged 25.7 points, 7.4 assists, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.1 steals on 47.2/31.6/77.5. That’s All-NBA-level production. It’s more about availability. He’s played just 177 games out of 328 in the past four seasons.
If the Grizzlies want to reach their ceiling, they need Ja Morant consistently on the floor. Again, some injuries are just luck-related — you can’t help it. However, getting a season with 65 games of Morant would be a big-win outcome for multiple reasons.
For starters, they win games with Ja Morant on the floor. Since 2021-22, the Grizzlies are 112-65 (51-win pace) when Morant plays. Specifically the last two seasons, they 36-23 (50-win pace) when he plays. The Grizzlies have a +6.03 NET rating with him on the floor, roughly 2 points better than when he’s off the floor.
In addition, if he’s playing consistently, he could reach 2021-22 levels of his production. It’s no secret that his numbers saw a boost in Tuomas Iisalo’s pick-and-roll heavy system. He averaged 28.4 points, 6.3 assists, and 4.3 rebounds on 48.1/37.9/75 shooting splits after the coaching switch. Sneakily, he had his best defensive season of his career, boasting a career-best +0.9 defensive estimated plus/minus (D-EPM) and his highest steal rate (1.9) — per dunksandthrees. It’s possible, with sustained playing periods, he can be the most complete version of himself this season.
Finally, a healthier Ja Morant season could mean he becomes eligible for post-season awards. And if he’s in discussion for postseason rewards, winning is likely coming along with that. In addition, postseason awards also means that he could be eligible for a super-max extension.
If Ja Morant is playing frequently, and performing at the level since his stratospheric rise, the Grizzlies cannot be counted out.
Grizzlies have been searching for wing answers since the beginning of this era.
The Grizzlies had a temporary answer to start this era with Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks. When the time with Brooks was coming to a close, trade rumors swirled around Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Kevin Durant.
The trade for Marcus Smart signaled a fix, but health and inconsistency ultimately prevented the vision from materializing. In the midst of it all, second-round pick Jaylen Wells emerged as a starter for the Grizzlies, giving the belief he can be a long-term starter.
After shockingly trading Desmond Bane, the Grizzlies are once again searching for bonafide starting options at the 2 and the 3 for the long haul.
Jaylen Wells’ progression will be something to monitor. His perimeter defense shined in his emergence, taking on — and excelling against — the league’s premier talent. He’s had flashes of a live-dribble game. Many fans are turning to Bane’s second-year leap as a barometer for Wells. Truthfully, the most impactful Wells leap comes in the form of taking more three’s at a sustained or improved percentage, making reads after attacking closeouts, and pinches of getting to the mid-range off handoffs or screens.
Jaylen Wells can be the next great Grizzlies perimeter defender
The Grizzlies’ next bet is Cedric Coward. He possesses the tantalizing part: a 6’5” wing with a 7’2” wingspan. He was an efficiency monster in college. Through preseason, the shot hasn’t fallen. However, there’s too much data on him being a good shooter, and shots should go in as the game slows down. Defensively, he’s been a bit jumpy, but his tools should start to pop into production over time.
Grizzlies prospect profile and fits: Cedric Coward
With the two of these players, I don’t think anyone is asking for them to have their upsides materialize this season. That would involve an exponential developmental curve. In addition, the pressure isn’t on them to do so. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope already looks like his pre-Magic self, and he should provide veteran stability from the wings. The Grizzlies will likely run two-guard lineups rather frequently with a combination of Morant, Ty Jerome, and Scotty Pippen Jr.
However, can Wells and Coward make meaningful progressions — game by game — towards impacting high-level winning basketball? Wells showed just last season that it’s possible.
Answering this question on the wing will be a successful outcome for the season, and it’ll help give Zach Kleiman a more clear idea of what this team needs to return to Western Conference contention.
Zach Edey should be returning within the first 20 games of the season. He’s going to play a big part of the Grizzlies’ system.
How does he look playing catch-up?
He had his offseason zapped after another ankle sprain, leading for Edey to go down the surgical route to address the laxity and re-stabilize his ankle. That’s critical development time where he’s not a full participant in Summer League, training camp, preseason, or the early portion of the season.
The Grizzlies have experienced sophomore slumps after promising rookie seasons — Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, Ziaire Williams, and GG Jackson. Injuries played a part in this occurrences. Hopefully, trends don’t repeat themselves here.
Edey is arguably the most important Grizzly outside of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. For starters, with Brandon Clarke’s uncertain timeline, the center depth has taken a hit. He poses so many advantages because of his size. After Iisalo took over, Edey led the NBA in screen assists per game. That element of his game will be amplified in this system predicated on the pick-and-roll. Among players that played at least half the season, he trailed only Steven Adams in offensive rebounding percentage (17.7%, per dunksandthrees). Even with how dicey things can get when he defends ball screens, he still provides value as a rim-protector — finishing 15th in block percentage (5.6) among players that played half the season.
Edey is a critical advantage for the Memphis Grizzlies. If he can salvage the season, and show growth as a NBA starting big man, that’s one of the biggest successes the Grizzlies could experience this season.
The Memphis Grizzlies are in for a big year. Not just with wins and losses, but they have to find what’s going to work with this infrastructure going forward. All of these outcomes are vital in answering that question, but it should also parlay in the Grizzlies finding a stride in the Western Conference playoff picture.
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