Can a Final Four be medicinal?

As many of you know, I was away from Hammer & Rails, the site I started way back in 2009, for the past three years. Casey and I were doing our work over at Rivals.com before they were bought out by On3, ending a tenure that, in retrospect, feels like a venture that was doomed from the beginning. In that time we witnessed the lowest of lows for Purdue basketball with the loss to Fairleigh Dickinson and the highest of highs with the breakthrough to the national title game just a year later. Casey did a tremendous job documenting that and will continue to do so here as we embark on the most anticipated season in program history.

Ridiculously high expectations have become the norm for this program. For many of us, the year 2020 provides a clear delineation of “Before COVID” and “After COVID”. In 2019-20 the Boilers dipped to 16-15 after a nice little three-year run. That run saw Purdue reach three Sweet 16s, win two Big Ten titles, and come within a second of the Final Four. Purdue was very, very good, but it wasn’t quite at that upper tier of college basketball.

The last four years have been different. After returning to the NCAA Tournament in 2021 the Boilermakers have arguably been one of the best five teams in the country (at least during the regular season). This year marks the fourth time in five seasons Purdue has been ranked No. 1 after never reaching that ranking before. Zach Edey became the most dominant and decorated player in college basketball in the last 40 years. Last year’s 24-11 season and Sweet 16 appearance would be the best season for about 95% of college basketball teams, but for us it was considered a “down” year.

It all started with that 2021-22 season, where the Boilers got to No. 1 for the first time only to lose their very first game as the nation’s top ranked team. Even before that, expectation hit a level never before seen. Before that season I wrote here about those expectations, and how, as a fan, the lack of March success had begun to weigh on us.

I have seen Purdue do everything in college basketball except make it to the last weekend. It has become an obsession in my brain. I need to see it. Big Ten titles are not enough. Preseason accolades are not enough. Only March matters. Until we make it, everything else feels like a disappointment, especially after being in the arena in 2019 and being half a second away. I am a Cubs fan, and they even won the damn World Series in my lifetime. We can’t get one damn Final Four when we’ve been a lot better at our sport than the Cubs?

15,205 days, and that 40+ years is only there because of one half second.

Those words came before so much. The 2021-22 season was probably the most anticipated season to that point and by many measures it was a success. Purdue won 29 games, but it felt like a failure because four last second losses cost them a Big Ten title. It also came up short in the Big Ten Tournament title game, then the St. Peter’s game continued the “Can’t win when it matters” narrative.

It seemed like Purdue had missed its golden chance, as players like Trevion Williams and Jaden Ivey were gone. Then Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Fletcher Loyer showed up. As freshmen they played well beyond their years, all while Edey became an unstoppable force. Purdue rolled through a tough non-conference season, got to No. 1 again, and cruised to a Big Ten title. By every metric the season was a roaring success and that team greatly overachieved its preseason expectations.

Then it was completely ruined in two hours in Columbus.

Until March 17, 2023 Purdue was having maybe its best season in school history. It ended as a laughingstock, suffering arguably the worst loss in the entire history of the NCAA Tournament. Purdue was 29-5 and won multiple championships, but it had to spend the offseason haunted by that FDU loss. Let’s also not forget that of those five losses, two were to bitter rival Indiana (including the first in Mackey Arena to the Hoosiers in a decade), adding just a little more sting to that FDU loss.

That led to 2023-24. Once Edey announced his return there was only one thing that would qualify the season as a success: playing in Phoenix on April 6, 2024. As a fan, it felt like nothing else mattered. Winning arguably the toughest Maui Invitational field ever? Pssh. A 26th Big Ten title, lapping the league by three games? A pittance.

The only thing that mattered were those 10 days in March. As a fan, that FDU loss haunted the entire year. With every win, every high ranking, it came with the asterisk of “but can they do it in March?”

On March 22, 2024 the chance at redemption finally began. That 10 day stretch from the 22nd against Grambling State in Indianapolis to the 31st against Tennessee in Detroit was a crucible. Two easy wins in Indy in front of a partisan crowd over Grambling State and Utah State relieved some of the pressure, but even after reaching a school season record of 31 wins following the Utah State game there were still two to go. They were the two hardest steps this successful program had had the most difficult time taking. Since 1980 it had only even successfully taken the first one, a Sweet 16 win, three times in 1994, 2000, and 2019. The 80-68 win over Gonzaga, the second of the season over the Bulldogs, brought the Boilers to their final boss: the Elite Eight.

Call it superstition. Call it insanity. Call it whatever. For the entire season leading to the tipoff of the Tennessee game I felt like there was zero chance we were going to the Final Four. I know I am in the minority there, but I had been burned too many times. The FDU game had killed something in me. It had killed all hope. I spent the entire season waiting for what felt like the inevitable March loss. Even throughout the Tennessee game I couldn’t even entertain the thought of winning. I knew better. Five years earlier I let my guard down and thought for a second we were going to the Promised Land when the missed free throw was batted away from the basket and Kehei Clark grabbed it going the wrong way 60 feet away with less than 4 seconds left. It was the only time that night I thought we were going to win, and I was immediately stabbed in the heart.

Against Tennessee, I wasn’t letting that happen again. I couldn’t be in Detroit. I had gotten laid off from my main job two weeks before and couldn’t justify the expense. I sat in my living room agonizing even as Edey put on his Superman cape and personally dragged us through the afternoon. We were getting it done, but Purdue only led by 3 after the final media stoppage. How many times had we lost games that close in those final four minutes of what I call “Winning Time?” Hell, all of those last second losses to Rutgers, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, and Northwestern were still incredibly fresh, and this was the most intense game of those all.

With 2:43 left Lance Jones, a one year hired gun coming into the program, rose and hit what I think is the biggest shot in the history of the program. 8 months previous we had absolutely no idea who he was. In that moment, he become an immortal. His three, on an afternoon where Purdue struggled from long range, gave us breathing room. As the years pass I think that three will take on more and more significance. It is basically the 2004 Dave Roberts steal for the Red Sox, only for Purdue basketball. Edey dominated the final 160 seconds on both ends of the floor, and with 6.9 seconds left, we were given an incredible gift.

Fletcher Loyer rebounded Zakai Zeigler’s missed three pointer and Tennessee elected not to foul and prolong the inevitable. With a six point lead, Loyer was able to dribble out those final seconds we were robbed of five years earlier. I know I was not the only one that collapsed onto the floor sobbing because, finally, it happened. They were 6.9 extra seconds we got to celebrate. They were a gift. They were the seconds that we were robbed of in Louisville five years earlier. Lifting the Final Four trophy was our Zihuatanejo moment. Even beating NC State a week later felt a little anticlimactic. For decades, just making the Final Four felt like an impossible dream. Now you’re telling me there was a chance we might win it when we get there?

Of course, we know what happened. Purdue lost the national title game to perhaps the one team that could beat it straight up. UConn was better, but it still did not take away from the moment that many of us had waited a lifetime for.

That brings us to now, and expectations. For the first time ever, Purdue is the preseason No. 1 team in college basketball. It has three starters back that played in that title game and who have started over 100 games together. It has another record-setting player in Smith, who is the favorite to win National Player of the Year like Edey and could set an all-time NCAA record for career assists. The team, by every standard, is absolutely loaded. It boasts experience. It boasts talent. It has an embarrassment of riches that 360 other Divisiuon I teams can only dream of. It even addressed its main weakness (post defense) from 2024-25 in getting Oscar Cluff as the best center available in the portal. This is a team where a 27th Big Ten title is not enough. It has one goal: to be playing on April 4, 2026 just 69.7 miles away from Mackey Arena in Lucas Oil Stadium, where last season ended.

And this time, there is only one expectation:

I think the 2023-24 season might be the difference maker this year. Before Loyer dibbled out those last 6.9 seconds against Tennessee it always felt like doom was just around the corner. Something was going to happen. Robbie Hummel’s knee would pop. A no-name Cal State Fullerton player would drag Isaac Haas to the floor and break his elbow. The Virginia play would happen. St. Peter’s would happen. FDU would happen. Glenn Robinson would hurt his back. We would choke against Kansas State. We would lose a rock fight in Albuquerque with Wisconsin. We would get vaporized in the second half by Kansas in Kansas City.

As the buzzer sounded Loyer threw the ball high in the air, and he basically threw away 40+ years of misery when he did so. Yes, expectations are incredibly high this year (and rightfully so), but this year is different.

This year, we know it can happen.

It has now only been 562 days since Purdue has played in a Final Four. I was a grown adult and saw it with my own eyes. I saw how this program stayed laser focused that entire season as it was determined to erase the pain of that FDU loss. Making it to the final weekend of the year is no longer a pipe dream. Even better, three starters on this roster have already done it. They know how to handle those enormous expectations.

Two years ago the entire season felt like a slog because we knew only March mattered. Now, at least as fans, we’re free from that baggage. It was all wiped away on March 31, 2024.

The next five months are going to be awesome. Barring something catastrophic, the expectation is a Big Ten title, another No. 1 seed, and a trip to Indy. Anything less will be a disappointment. The non-conference schedule is absolutely insane with Alabama, Auburn, Marquette, Iowa State, Memphis, and maybe Texas Tech on it. The Big Ten will bring its usual challenges. Still, something like 28-3 is not only possible, but likely. There will be a couple losses because going undefeated in college basketball is virtually impossible, but this is still probably the best team in the country. It honestly may not even be close.

And sometime around 11pm on April 6, 2026, black and gold confetti may be raining down as Purdue wins its first ever NCAA Tournament.

For once, that feels less like a dream, and more like an expectation. That 2024 Final Four was, inded medicinal.

Kids, let’s have some fun watching these guys. I plan on enjoying every second of it unlike two years ago because that Final Four burden is gone.