The Miami Heat (0-1) face the Memphis Grizzlies (1-0) on Friday. Tip-off from FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee, is set for 8 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Heat vs. Grizzlies odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
2024-25 season series: Memphis won 2-0
The Heat dropped their season opener Wednesday night, losing 125-121 to the Orlando Magic. Miami did manage to cover as 8.5-point road underdogs as the Over (215) cashed. G Norman Powell led the way with 28 points, shooting 4-of-8 from deep, and grabbed 9 rebounds. C Bam Adebayo added a double-double with 15 points and 12 boards.
The Grizzlies opened their season in strong fashion Wednesday, defeating the New Orleans Pelicans 128-122 at home. Memphis covered as a 4-point favorite as the Over (236) easily hit. All 5 starters scored in double figures, led by G Ja Morant’s 35 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists. F Jaren Jackson Jr. added 18 points and 8 rebounds.
Heat at Grizzlies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:39 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Heat +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Grizzlies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Heat +2.5 (-105) | Grizzlies -2.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Heat at Grizzlies key injuries
Heat
G Tyler Herro (ankle) outSG Kasparas Jakucionis (groin) out
Grizzlies
PG Ja Morant (ankle) questionableSG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ankle) questionableSG Vince Williams Jr. (heel) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Grizzlies picks and predictionsPrediction
Grizzlies 120, Heat 111
PASS.
I like the Grizzlies (-155) to win at home Friday night, but I’ll take the better odds on the spread.
BET GRIZZLIES -2.5 (-115).
The Grizzlies look poised to cover the -2.5 spread against a shorthanded Heat squad. Memphis was impressive in its win over New Orleans, showing both resilience and depth after battling through early foul trouble and a halftime deficit. Even if Morant (35 points in the opener) sits, the Grizzlies’ balance and home-court edge make them the stronger side Friday.
Meanwhile, the Heat are still searching for consistency after blowing a late fourth-quarter lead in the loss to Orlando. Miami went cold down the stretch, and now faces a much tougher defensive opponent. Without Herro (last season’s leading scorer at 23.9 points per game), the Heat’s offensive ceiling takes a major hit despite Powell’s strong debut.
Memphis was 26-15 at home last season and looks sharper and deeper to start this campaign. They’ve won 7 of the last 10 meetings against the Heat. With Miami still finding chemistry, the Grizzlies should control tempo, dominate the paint, and pull away late. I’m taking Memphis to cover comfortably in their second straight home win.
BET UNDER 232.5 (-110).
The Under has cashed in each of the last 4 meetings between these teams and in 6 of the last 7 overall. With both sides possibly missing their top scorers, offensive efficiency should dip — this total looks inflated. I’m betting the Under.
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