Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for the Cavaliers at Pistons game Monday.

Of all 11 games on tonight’s featured NBA slate, only two are between a pair of teams virtually guaranteed to be in the top six of their respective conference standings at season’s end. One of those is the 7 p.m. ET Peacock clash between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Detroit Pistons, who finished as the East’s first and sixth seeds, respectively, last season.

Tonight’s game will be played at Detroit’s Little Caesars Arena, where the Pistons beat the Boston Celtics in their home opener last night. Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, which means Cavaliers backup point guard Lonzo Ball will sit out as part of an injury management routine.

Cleveland is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-135 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 231.5. Detroit is +114 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this potential playoff preview and offer a prediction.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons preview, prediction

After starting the 2024-25 season on a 15-game winning streak, the Cavaliers wasted no time picking up their first loss, dropping a 119-111 decision to the New York Knicks on Opening Night. But Cleveland bounced back in consecutive games, narrowly winning back-to-back games against the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks, and there have been a few encouraging signs so far, with both Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley off to impressive starts offensively. Perhaps most encouragingly, All-Star point guard Darius Garland has participated in some contact drills as he prepares to return from toe surgery as soon as next week.

The Pistons are 2-1 as well, losing to the Chicago Bulls before picking up impressive wins over the Houston Rockets and then the Celtics. Detroit’s most impressive player so far has arguably been Ausar Thompson, who’s averaged 17.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game so far — all career highs. Cade Cunningham, a first-time All-NBA honoree last season, hasn’t been quite as sharp, shooting less than 40% from the field and ranking third in turnovers (5.7) and 16th in fouls (4.3) per game, so with him struggling and free agent acquisitions Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert quiet, the Pistons’ 2-1 record is rather encouraging.

Cavaliers at Pistons pick, best bet

The Cavaliers won three of the team’s four matchups last season — including all three in which Cunningham played — during their dream season, but they had Garland for each of the wins and Max Strus for two of them. This Cleveland roster looks different outside of the established core — losing backup point guard Ty Jerome was a particularly big blow, especially with Garland and now Ball out — but the team’s general key to victory last season. In 2024-25, the Cavaliers were able to win thanks to their league-high true shooting percentage, and through the first week of 2025-26, they rank in the top 10. They also ranked in the top 10 in opponent points in the paint and opponent points off turnovers last season, and they’ve been impressive in the paint so far again, even though they’ve been sloppier with the ball. They’ve made up for their ball-handling deficiencies by averaging the fifth-most steals.

Cleveland’s dominance inside, led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, could be a problem for a Pistons team that ranks seventh in points in the paint this season after finishing fifth in that stat in 2024-25. Across the teams’ four games last season, Detroit averaged just 46.5 points in the paint per game, 6.4 fewer than its mark for the season as a whole. The Pistons did do a good job forcing turnovers in those games and actually allowed the third-fewest fast-break points of any team against the Cavaliers, which is impressive given that they finished 10th-to-last in turnovers overall. That’s an area in which Detroit appears to have improved so far in 2025-26, as it ranks seventh overall despite Cunningham averaging 5.7 per game.

The question remains whether Cleveland will have enough playmaking without its top two point guards. Last season, the Cavaliers finished ninth in assists per game with Garland playing all but seven games, and their assist rate dropped by 5.3 percentage points with him off the court. This season, Ball is averaging 6.3 assists per game in just 23.0 minutes, helping Cleveland to 15th in assists despite Garland’s injury, though the Cavaliers actually have a higher assist percentage without him. Both point guards’ absence could be an issue against a Pistons defense whose anchor is a roving type in Thompson. Cleveland is also shooting the eighth-lowest percentage in the restricted area, and Detroit is leading the league in blocks after ranking ninth in that stat last season.

In what should be a defensive battle down low, jump-shooting will be a major factor. Last season, both teams were equally dominant in the restricted area, but the Pistons allowed the fourth-highest shooting percentage on above-the-break threes and the Cavaliers struggled to defend the corners. Since most three-pointers are taken from above the break, that should benefit Cleveland, which has shot the ball better than Detroit so far this season. The Cavaliers are eighth in three-point percentage, even though Mitchell’s 33.3% is a career-low, and the Pistons rank seventh-to-last. Cleveland has also committed the fifth-fewest fouls, while Detroit has been whistled the third-most times.

Best bet: Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 Alternate Spread (+119)