Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for the Celtics at Pelicans game Monday.
The mighty have truly fallen: the Boston Celtics, after being one of the most dominant teams in the Eastern Conference over nearly the last decade, are just 0-3 in what promises to be a rebuilding season after losing superstar Jayson Tatum (likely) for the season with a torn Achilles.
Last night’s clash against the Detroit Pistons didn’t provide Boston with its first win of the season, so it’ll be back at it again tonight on the second night of a back-to-back, with an 8 p.m. road game against the 0-2 New Orleans Pelicans. Each team could be missing its best player: Celtics wing Jaylen Brown is questionable with injury management, and Pelicans forward Zion Williamson is dealing with a foot issue.
It’s basically a toss-up, as Boston is a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-120 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 231.5. New Orleans is +100 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this potential playoff preview and offer a prediction.
Boston Celtics at New Orleans Pelicans preview, prediction
The Celtics were victims of the NBA’s second apron during the offseason, making a flurry of moves designed to shed salary in a non-competitive season. They haven’t looked very good in the absences of Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday, although the Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks, and Pistons is a fairly difficult opening slate of games. On the bright side, Brown has passed his first test as a primary option, averaging 29.7 points per game on excellent efficiency so far, and 19-year-old rookie Hugo González has impressed on the defensive end.
The Pelicans’ losses have come against less impressive teams, as they dropped tight decisions to the Memphis Grizzlies and the San Antonio Spurs, the latter defeat coming in overtime. However, there have been plenty of bright spots for New Orleans, as rookies Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears have both shown flashes and Williamson leads the league in steals per game. Most importantly, Williamson has looked both healthy and engaged, which has been an issue throughout his entire career.
Celtics at Pelicans pick, best bet
Both teams entered the season fairly thin at center and have already taken hits to the position. The Pelicans, who started second-round rookie Yves Missi last season, brought in Kevon Looney in free agency and drafted Queen in the first round, but Looney suffered a knee sprain in preseason and Missi sustained an ankle sprain in the season opener, though he’ll be available tonight after missing Friday’s loss to the San Antonio Spurs. Boston, meanwhile, opened the season with Neemias Queta starting ahead of Xavier Tillman Sr. and Luka Garza, but Garza was concussed during the opening game and missed the defeat against the Knicks. Both players will be available, but they might not be 100%.
One season after leading the league in three-point attempts by a wide margin, the Celtics have dropped slightly to third, and they’ve shot the league’s third-lowest percentage so far. That should change eventually — it’s hard to imagine Payton Pritchard shooting 18.2% from deep all season or Derrick White connecting at a 28.6% clip — and Boston should start winning games as a result. Three-point shooting should be a fairly reliable way of beating New Orleans; last season, it allowed the second-most made triples on the 10th-best percentage, and its primary offseason addition was shooting guard Jordan Poole, who’s hardly a lockdown defender. In the first two games of the season, opponents made just 30.0% of their triples, but Memphis and San Antonio aren’t known for their shooting regardless.
The key for the Pelicans will be Williamson’s ability to put pressure on the basket. The Celtics have been great in the paint despite their lack of center depth, allowing the third-fewest points in the paint per game while holding opponents to the third-lowest percentage on the seventh-fewest restricted area tries per game. However, Boston has also conceded the most offensive boards and second-chance points so far, so Williamson’s ability to crash the glass will be paramount, as will Missi’s health. Williamson also ranks second in the league in drives this season, but unlike Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Dončić, the other two players averaging more than 20 drives per game, he’s been rather inefficient. He’ll need to get back to his 2024-25 efficiency levels on drives in order to take advantage of the Celtics’ lack of depth in the middle.
Williamson’s driving efficiency is probably bound to improve — it doesn’t help that his two games have been against former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. and likely future Defensive Player of the Year Victor Wembanyama — but so is Boston’s shooting, and it’s doubtful that New Orleans’ opponents will continue making just three-10ths of their triples. Neither team’s track record in the early stages of the season has been particularly sustainable, which makes this game hard to predict, but I expect the Celtics to normalize sooner than I do the Pelicans. Boston will get off the mark tonight, leaving New Orleans as one of the few remaining winless sides.
Best bet: Boston Celtics Moneyline (-120)