MIAMI — When it comes to the developmental spectrum of the NBA draft, the Miami Heat have sampled a wide range of possibilities with their first-round picks the past three years.
In 2022, it was going international with the 19-year-old youth of Nikola Jovic. In 2023, it was opting for the four-year collegiate experience of Jaime Jaquez Jr. And last year, it was the raw potential of 20-year-old Kel’el Ware.
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With the Heat’s scouting braintrust in Chicago this week for the NBA combine, a decision will have to be made when it comes to the June 25 first-round of the draft, of whether to go for potential or preparedness.
On one hand, the Heat’s record-setting playoff demise against the Cleveland Cavaliers showed that more is needed now.
On the other hand, there already is ample youth in the Heat pipeline, when considering not only Jovic, Jaquez and Ware, but also neophytes such as 2024 second-round pick Pelle Larsson, as well as undrafted prospects such as Keshad Johnson and Isaiah Stevens.
To Adam Simon, the Heat’s Vice President of Basketball Operations and Assistant General Manager, the debate of whether to go young or older is akin to drafting for positional need. In each case, Simon stresses that best-available player not only is the safest approach but also the most prudent.
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“I don’t think there’s a simple answer,” Simon said, with the Heat holding the No. 20 pick in the first round, the selection acquired from the Golden State Warriors in the Jimmy Butler trade. The Heat’s own pick, at No. 15, belongs to the Oklahoma City Thunder, to complete a previous trade. “There’s always thoughts of drafting need versus positional and talk about development versus ready. But there’s so many other things that go into it.
“I think we’re in the people business and you’re looking at each person differently and everybody develops at different ages. We’ve seen great players at 19 and 20. And we’ve also seen players that go undrafted and are 23 and 24 that become really good NBA players.”
So while age and experience are considered, there also is a long view.
“We don’t try to like box anybody in, because every person is different and I think you’re just trying to find talent,” Simon said, with Heat President Pat Riley and scouts Keith Askins and Eric Amsler among those representing the team at the Chicago combine. “We talk about looking for upside, but we’ve seen players that are four-year seniors that get drafted lower that turn out to be Hall of Famers, and you see guys that are drafted younger that have upside that don’t pan out.
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“So there’s not really one way we go about looking. We try to identify talent and then dissect that player for who that player is.”
Ultimately, opportunity, if the Heat retain the No. 20 pick, could come down to as much of what the Heat do in free agency and the trade market, with both of those elements likely to play out after the draft.
Whether a player is ready now or drafted for the future, questions of fit are real. Take, for example, Reed Shephard, the guard out of Kentucky taken at No. 3 last June. Whether ready or not, it did not particularly matter, because of the composition of the Houston Rockets’ roster, with Shephard seeing action in just 51 games in his rookie season at an average of 12.5 minutes per game.
Optimally, Simon said a goal is to add a player with enough upside to contribute immediately, as Jaquez did in 2023-24 and as Ware eventually did this past season.
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“I think you can have those conversations at whichever point it is at the table or in the meetings the next couple of months,” Simon said of both draft night and the build up to draft night. “But I think you’re always looking for someone who can help you sooner rather than later.
“But without naming names, you can see players that we are watching in the playoffs and how many of those players in the playoffs were in the lottery last year?”
So, no, you won’t be getting Simon to acknowledge whether ready-now is the desire, just as you won’t be getting him to delineate a positional target – even if both might exist.
“I think it just depends on your roster,” he said. “I think it depends on the player himself. You have players that are four-year seniors that also need time to develop and then you’ve got players that are 18 or 19 that could have a more immediate impact. It all depends on the player.”
Mocking the Heat at No. 20
With the draft order formally set ahead of the draft combine, a look at names various mock drafts have linked to the Heat at No. 20:
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ESPN: Liam McNeeley, UConn, guard, freshman.
The Athletic: Jase Richardson, Michigan, guard, freshman.
The Ringer: Will Riley, Illinois, wing, freshman.
Yahoo Sports: Noah Penda, France, wing, 20 years old.
CBS Sports: Joan Berenger, France, center, 18 years old.
Bleacher Report: Ben Saraf, Germany, guard, 19 years old.
SB Nation: Riley.
USA Today: Richardson.
HoopsHype: Richardson
NBADraft.net: McNeeley.