The Golden State Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks have played great basketball through the first week and a half of the NBA season, so expect fireworks when they go head-to-head tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is in MVP form, and my Warriors vs. Bucks predictions are targeting the Over on his scoring prop.
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Here are my best free NBA picks for this showdown at Fiserv Forum on Thursday, October 30.
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Warriors vs Bucks prediction
Warriors vs Bucks best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 30.5 points (-115)
Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged at least 30 points in each of the last three seasons, and he’s been electric as a scorer to open the 2025-26 campaign. Through four games, Giannis has averaged 36.3 points, going for 37, 31, 40, and 37, respectively.
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The Greek Freak has the size and strength to take advantage of a smaller Golden State Warriors lineup. He averages the fourth-most points in the paint per game at 9.8, and the Warriors surrender the 10th-most in the paint overall (54.8). Golden State has allowed the most paint points on the road this season at a whopping 64.
Golden State’s perimeter defense has been far better than its interior defense, allowing the sixth-fewest made 3-pointers and sixth-worst 3-point percentage. Conversely, the Warriors have allowed opponents to shoot 49% from the field, the seventh-best mark.
Antetokounmpo ranks second in the Association in usage rate at 37.3, and he’s one of seven players attempting at least 20 shots per game. He’s the Milwaukee Bucks‘ top offensive option, and it’s not even close. No other member of the team is averaging more than 15.3 points per game.
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Warriors vs Bucks same-game parlay
Milwaukee has the right combination of size, athleticism, and defensive acumen to contend with a red-hot Golden State team. The Bucks are 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS this season. They’ve won four of the last five home matchups with Golden State, and I like them to win this one outright as the home underdog.
Jimmy Butler has a long and storied history against Milwaukee, and he’s hit the Over on this combo line in three straight and 11 of his last 15 meetings with the Bucks. He’s reached 30 PRA in four of five games this season.
Warriors vs Bucks SGP
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 30.5 points
Jimmy Butler Over 29.5 points+rebounds+assists
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Our “from downtown” SGP: Rollins Renaissance
Ryan Rollins has started three straight in place of the injured Kevin Porter Jr. and averaged 25.7 PRA in that span. He finished with 20 PRA in his first start and has cleared the Over on this line in two straight. Porter Jr. is out again tonight, clearing the way for Rollins to have another productive showing.
Warriors vs Bucks SGP
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 30.5 points
Jimmy Butler Over 29.5 points+rebounds+assists
Ryan Rollins Over 20.5 points+rebounds+assists
Warriors vs Bucks odds
Spread: Golden State -2.5 (-110) | Milwaukee +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Golden State -150 | Milwaukee +125
Over/Under: Over 231.5 (-110) | Under 231.5 (-110)
Warriors vs Bucks betting trend to know
Milwaukee has won four of its last five home matchups with Golden State. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Bucks.
How to watch Warriors vs Bucks
Location
Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
Date
Thursday, October 30, 2025
Tip-off
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
NBCS Bay Area, FDSN Wisconsin
Warriors vs Bucks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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